UConn vs. Michigan odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament Final picks by proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Michigan Wolverines vs. Connecticut Huskies and revealed its college basketball picks for the 2026 March Madness national championship game on Monday

The Michigan Wolverines will look to end the Big Ten's 26-year men's basketball title drought when they battle the UConn Huskies in the 2026 NCAA Tournament National Championship Game on Monday night. Michigan State was the last Big Ten team to earn the crown, defeating Florida in 2000. The Huskies (34-5), who have won six national titles, all since 1999, advanced with a 71-62 win over Illinois in Saturday's national semifinal. The Wolverines (36-3), who are looking for their second national title and first since 1989, defeated Arizona 91-73 on Saturday. Michigan star Yaxel Lendeborg does not carry an injury designation despite hurting his ankle and knee in the Final Four win over Arizona. 

Tipoff from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis is set for 8:49 p.m. ET. The Wolverines are 6.5-point favorites in the latest UConn vs. Michigan odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 145.5, up a point from the opening Michigan vs. UConn line. Before making any Michigan vs. UConn picks, check out the UConn vs. Michigan predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 Final Four on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks.

Now, the model has simulated UConn vs. Michigan 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for Michigan vs. UConn:

UConn vs. Michigan spread:    

Michigan -6.5

UConn vs. Michigan over/under:    

145.5 points

UConn vs. Michigan money line:    

Michigan -309, UConn +246

UConn vs. Michigan picks:    

UConn vs. Michigan TV:

TBS

Top UConn vs. Michigan predictions

After 10,000 simulations of UConn vs. Michigan, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (145.5 points). The Over hit in the last five Michigan games. The Over has hit in 11 of Connecticut's last 18 games against teams averaging more than 72 points per game. Michigan has the eighth-most explosive offense in Division I, averaging 87.8 points per game.

The model projects the Huskies to have five players score 11.6 points or more, led by Tarris Reed Jr., who is projected to score 14.8 points. The Wolverines, meanwhile, are expected to be led in scoring by Yaxel Lendeborg, who is projected to score 16.2 points, one of just four players to score 10.9 points or more. The model is projecting 151 combined points as the Over clears in 67% of simulations. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make Michigan vs. UConn picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of UConn vs. Michigan 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits 60% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Michigan vs. UConn, and which side of the spread hits 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the UConn vs. Michigan spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.