UConn vs. Illinois odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 Final Four picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Connecticut Huskies and revealed its NCAA Tournament 2026 Final Four picks for Saturday

A spot in the national title game is on the line when the No. 2 seed UConn Huskies take on the No. 3 seed Illinois Fighting Illini on Saturday, April 4, in a bit of a surprising 2026 Final Four matchup in the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies, who are going for their third title in four seasons, stunned favored Duke with a late steal and long-distance 3-pointer from Braylon Mullins in the Elite Eight. Illinois, meanwhile, makes its first Final Four appearance since 2005 after the Illini upset Houston in the Sweet 16 and then beat Iowa in the Elite Eight. UConn beat Illinois 74-61 when these teams met this season at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 28.

Tipoff from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis is set for 6:09 p.m. ET. The Illini are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Illinois vs. UConn odds, while the over/under is 139.5. Before making any UConn vs. Illinois picks, check out the Connecticut vs. Illinois predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 Elite Eight on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks.

Now, the model has simulated Illinois vs. UConn 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for UConn vs. Illinois:

UConn vs. Illinois spread:    

Illinois -1.5

UConn vs. Illinois over/under:    

139.5 points

UConn vs. Illinois money line:    

Illinois -133, UConn +112

UConn vs. Illinois picks:    

UConn vs. Illinois TV:

TBS

Top UConn vs. Illinois predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Illinois vs. UConn, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (139.5 points). The Huskies are coming off a clear-cut Over against Duke as those teams combined for 145 points in a game where the over/under was 134.5. Illinois, meanwhile, had six of its final nine games hit the Over heading into the NCAA Tournament. 

The model is projecting that both teams clear 70 points in this matchup as Keaton Wagler leads the way with 16.7 points for Illinois. Tarris Reed Jr., Alex Karaban and Solo Ball, meanwhile, all score around 15 points for UConn in the simulations. The teams combine for 151 points as the Over hits in 79% of computer simulations. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make Illinois vs. UConn picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Illinois vs. UConn 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Illinois vs. UConn, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.