Getty Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Explore Awards Circuit Predictions Pages Oscars | Emmys | Grammys | Tonys
“Fallen Angels” Primetime Tony Awards Predictions Commentary All Categories (Updated: May 21, 2026): This year’s Tony Awards race feels more wide open than it has in seasons, and yet, it’s also stacked with the kind of potential record-breaking storylines that make Broadway’s biggest night worth watching.
When nominations for the 79th annual ceremony were unveiled on May 5, two new musicals dominated the field. The genre-spoofing comedy “Schmigadoon!” and the rock-tinged vampire musical “The Lost Boys” tied at the top with 12 nominations each, followed closely by Lincoln Center Theater’s revival of “Ragtime” with 11. On the play side, the revival of Arthur Miller’s “Death of a Salesman” led with nine, tying the musical revivals “Cats: The Jellicle Ball” and “Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show.”
As always, awards watchers are eyeing potential future EGOT winners, or rather, artists on their way to the potential milestone. Several nominees could be put at the halfway point of that illustrious journey. Emmy winners in striking distance of a Tony include Richard Thomas (featured actor in a play, “The Balusters”), Ana Gasteyer (featured actress in a musical, “Schmigadoon!”), David Korins (scenic design, “Dog Day Afternoon”) and Cinco Paul (triple nominee for “Schmigadoon!”). Grammy winners hoping to add Tony gold include three-time Tony nominee Shoshana Bean, the frontrunner for “The Lost Boys,” and Caroline Shaw for the original score for “Death of a Salesman.” According to Broadway News, alongside Shaw, every nominee in the best book and original score categories is making their Broadway writing debuts, a first in modern Tony history.
The most intriguing corporate storyline of the night belongs to Apple. As Instagram awards enthusiast Freddy Mancilla (@freddyindc) noted, a Tony win for “Schmigadoon!” would complete what trackers unofficially call a “studio EGOT,” giving the company credits on winners at all four major ceremonies. Apple already has Emmys for comedies “Ted Lasso” and “The Studio,” the Oscar for best picture for “CODA” and a Grammy via Chris Stapleton’s contribution to the “F1” soundtrack. A Tony win would place it alongside Warner Bros. and Universal Pictures. Disney also effectively achieved the feat through “The Lion King” alone.
But a possibly bad Tonys night could bring a not-so-favorable record for the streamer. If “Schmigadoon!” goes home empty-handed despite its 12 noms, it would tie “The Scottsboro Boys,” “Mean Girls” and “Slave Play” for the most losses by a single production in Tony history. Given its precursor wins at the Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle awards, that outcome could prove unlikely, but the Tonys can deliver unpredictable (and surprising) results.
Moreover, Universal Television has a notable presence throughout this Tony season. The studio’s associated talent is heavily represented in several marquee acting races, including Daniel Radcliffe (“The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins”), nominated for lead actor in a play for “Every Brilliant Thing,” and Carrie Coon (“The Gilded Age”), whose performance in “Bug” earned her a lead actress nomination before the production closed in March. Meanwhile, “Schmigadoon!” adapted from the Apple TV and Universal Television series, is executive produced by “Saturday Night Live” creator Lorne Michaels, the most Emmy-awarded individual in history.
John Lithgow, nominated for lead actor in a play for his turn as Roald Dahl in Nicholas Hytner’s “Giant,” is within reach of a rare achievement. Having already won featured actor in a play for “The Changing Room” and lead actor in a musical for “Sweet Smell of Success,” a victory would make him one of a small group to win in three separate acting categories (in which he is eligible). However, his fellow nominee, Nathan Lane for “Death of a Salesman,” could pull off the same feat. Lane has won lead actor in a musical twice for “A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum” and “The Producers,” plus featured actor in a play for “Angels in America.” Only one of them can join the three-category club on Tonys night. Which one will it be?
Audra McDonald remains the only performer of any gender to win in all four eligible acting categories.
Danny Burstein already broke a record with his ninth Tony nod, for “Marjorie Prime,” giving him the all-time mark for most Tony nominations by a male performer (surpassing Jason Robards). Interestingly, this is also a record Audra McDonald holds, with the all-time overall acting record at 11. Burstein’s previous eight noms have produced only a single win for featured actor in a musical, in 2020 for “Moulin Rouge!”. A beloved actor in the community, as a Tony voter tells Variety, saying, “His win during COVID has this sort of asterisk around it because everything was shut down. This is an opportunity to give him a proper win, and he deserves it.”
Of all the acting races, Burstein’s category is the hardest to read, with four viable contenders in the mix. They include theater enthusiasts’ heavily favored Alden Ehrenreich for “Becky Shaw,” the formidable Christopher Abbott for “Death of a Salesman,” and a true dark-horse spoiler in Richard Thomas for “The Balusters,” whose potential victory could serve as a way to honor the production as a whole.
Burstein’s co-star June Squibb also broke a record of her own. At 96, she is the oldest acting nominee in Tony history, surpassing Lois Smith, who was 89 when nominated for “The Inheritance” in 2020. After turning 90, she went on to win that season, becoming the oldest winner ever. Coincidentally, Smith originated the title role of “Marjorie Prime” off-Broadway in 2015 before reprising it in the 2017 film. Smith. Can Squibb smash one more record of Smith’s? Might be difficult considering the reviews and acclaim of her fellow nominee Laurie Metcalf from “Death of a Salesman,” who is likely to be part of a big night for the Scott Rudin-produced revival.
Three Broadway creatives pulled off rare three-category recognition this season: Cinco Paul for “Schmigadoon!” (book, score and producer), Marla Mindelle for “Titaníque” (book, lead actress and producer) and Gabriel Mann for “The Lost Boys” (score, orchestrations and producer). Mindelle’s combination mirrors what Cole Escola accomplished last season for the play “Oh, Mary!” and marks the first instance of a woman earning recognition across all three disciplines on the same production.
If “Schmigadoon!” also wins best musical, Paul would join an elite group of artists who single-handedly authored a best musical winner, which includes: Jonathan Larson (“Rent”), Mel Brooks (“The Producers”), Lin-Manuel Miranda (“Hamilton”) and Michael R. Jackson (“A Strange Loop”).
Legendary performer André De Shields, nominated for featured actor in a musical for “Cats: The Jellicle Ball,” is another potential victor. After winning for “Hadestown” at 73, a second Tony at 80 would further cement his late-career renaissance. De Shields’ closest competitors are Ben Levi Ross, fresh off his Drama Desk win for “Ragtime,” and 26-year-old breakout Ali Louis Bourzgui from “The Lost Boys,” marking his second originated role on Broadway following 2024’s “The Who’s Tommy,” where he played the titular role.
The most prolific nominee this season is from producer Willette Klausner, who is attached to nine individual productions: “Giant” and “Liberation” (best play); “The Lost Boys,” “Schmigadoon!,” “Titaníque,” “Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)” (best musical); “Oedipus” (play revival); and “Cats: The Jellicle Ball” and “Ragtime” (musical revival).
Klausner has already produced top-prize winners in “Hadestown,” “Stereophonic,” “Sunset Blvd.” and “Maybe Happy Ending,” and this season has contenders across all four marquee races. The industry’s perennial powerhouse remains the John Gore Organization, however, which continues to hold producer credits on a substantial portion of Broadway’s nominated productions each season.
Other prolific multi-nominated producers this year include Pam Hurst-Della Pietra and James L. Nederlander, each attached to five productions, along with Stephen Della Pietra, Tom Tuft and the Roundabout Theatre Company leadership team.
The celebrity-heavy rosters behind “The Lost Boys” (Neil Patrick Harris, Slash, Kiefer Sutherland, Patrick Wilson, Lauren Shuler Donner, Stephen and Ayesha Curry) and “Titaníque” (JC Chasez, Joey Fatone, Bowen Yang, Matt Rogers, Deborah Cox) each add a layer of pop-culture and Hollywood wattage.
And just to point to a couple of Tony records that could be broken with a swing of a night. The most Tonys ever received by a play was seven, for “The Coast of Utopia” (2007). These early projections have “Death of a Salesman” with five wins. If it can pick up a win for Christopher Abbott in featured actor and director for Joe Mantello, that could tie the record. To surpass it, it would need to win everything predicted, and an extra tack-on for a category such as scenic design. Could be difficult, albeit not impossible.
In terms of acting records, only one show has won all four of the acting awards in a single year — 1950’s “South Pacific.” The only production this year with the capacity to do that would be “Ragtime,” which very well could win three with Henry, Levy and Ross, who all won Drama Desk prizes. Nichelle Lewis would need to surpass the overdue Shoshana Bean, a difficult hurdle to overcome.
The critically acclaimed “Liberation” is favored to take home the best play statue. If it wins, it will join a list of 18 plays that have won the Pulitzer Prize for Drama and the Tony Award in the same year. They include: “Death of a Salesman” by Arthur Miller (1949), “The Teahouse of the August Moon” by John Patrick (1954), “The Diary of Anne Frank” by Frances Goodrich and Albert Hackett (1956), “Long Day’s Journey Into Night” by Eugene O’Neill (1957), “J.B.” by Archibald MacLeish (1959), “The Subject Was Roses” by Frank D. Gilroy (1965), “The Great White Hope” by Howard Sackler (1969), “That Championship Season” by Jason Miller (1973), “The Shadow Box” by Michael Cristofer (1977), “Fences” by August Wilson (1987), “The Heidi Chronicles” by Wendy Wasserstein (1989), “Lost in Yonkers” by Neil Simon (1991), “Angels in America: Millennium Approaches” by Tony Kushner (1993), “Proof” by David Auburn (2001), “I Am My Own Wife” by Doug Wright (2004), “Doubt” by John Patrick Shanley (2005), “August: Osage County” by Tracy Letts (2008) and “Purpose” by Branden Jacobs-Jenkins (2025).
Final Tony voting concludes Friday, June 5, at noon ET. The 79th annual Tony Awards will air live coast-to-coast Sunday, June 7, on CBS and stream on Paramount+ beginning at 8 p.m. ET, with Pink hosting from Radio City Music Hall.
Top projected winners (productions): “Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman” (5); “Cats: The Jellicle Ball,” “The Lost Boys” and “Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)” (4); “Ragtime” (3); “Liberation” (2)
See all Tony Awards predictions*** = PREDICTED WINNER (All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
-
Best Musical
Image Credit: Getty “The Lost Boys” (Palace Theatre) James Carpinello, Marcus Chait, Patrick Wilson, James L. Nederlander, At Rise Creative, Ayesha & Stephen Curry, Lauren Shuler Donner, Neil Patrick Harris, Douglas Sills, Slash, Kiefer Sutherland, Steve Young, Amy & Grady Burnett, Allison Bloom & Gabriel Mann, Hunter Arnold/Broadway Strategic Return Fund, Eastern Standard Time, DJD Productions/ZK Productions, Jay Marcus/Carl Moellenberg, Stark Sands, Jordan Silver/Kerri Mandelbaum, James Bolosh & Hillary Wyatt, Decca Broadway/Federal Films, Creative Partners Productions, Independent Presenters Network, The John Gore Organization, Stewart F. Lane/Bonnie Comley/Leah Lane, Greg & Lisa Love, MacPac Entertainment, Murray Entertainment, Inc., Oddly Specific Productions, The Shubert Organization, Toho Co Ltd., We R Broadway Artists Alliance, Stage Entertainment, Carrie & Joe Staley, W Thompson Family, Drew Elhamalawy/Kirsten & David Abdo, Brandon Blaser/Davis-Carroll, Crossroads Live/Marla McNally Phillips, Anthony & Maria Diaco/D’Angora Padgett Productions, Nancy Glass/Handler-Pawliuk Family, Grove Entertainment/KLIVE Entertainment, Howard-DePhillips/Jamie Stone O’Brien, Pam Hurst-Della Pietra & Stephen Della Pietra/Polly & Ed Han, Willette Klausner/Waikit Lau, Knudsen-Weissberger Productions/April Dovey Productions, Nabatoff-Caise/Sean Nyberg, Andy Raab/Ratelle-Eliason, Orfeh/Braedon Young, David & Megan Scacco/Jason & Sarah Sobel, Jason Taylor/Michael Graf, An 11:11 Experience, Devin Keudell, Warner Bros. Theatre Ventures (producers) “Schmigadoon!” (Nederlander Theatre) Lorne Michaels, No Guarantees Productions, Micah Frank, Caroline Maroney, Marylee Fairbanks, James L. Nederlander, SAMS Entertainment, Charles D. Urstadt, Bradford & Melissa Coolidge, Jeffrey Finn, John Gore Organization, Theatrical Rights Worldwide, Cinco Paul, Andrew Singer, Willette Klausner/Kolson-Prisand, Leah Bergoffen/Andrew Paradis, Wendy Bingham Cox/Jodi Oh, Jamie deRoy/TT Partners, Donnelly Harris/Roth-Manella Productions, Marc David Levine/Jack Sullivan, JMB Collective/Jillian Robbins, Broadway Video, Apple TV, Universal Theatrical Group (producers) “Titaníque” (St. James Theatre) Eva Price, Diamond Dog Entertainment, Marla Mindelle, Constantine Rousouli, Tye Blue, OD Company/OD Universe & Co., MEP, James L. Nederlander, Tristan Schukraft, Joey Fatone & Joe Mulvihill, Matt Rogers, Bowen Yang, Deborah Cox & Melissa Haizlip, Patty Baker, James Berwind, Broadway MDs, Crossroads Live, Ken Davenport, Hungryman Entertainment, John Gore Organization, Perakos-Fellman Adventures, Rogers & Spiro, Monica Saunders-Weinberg, ShowTown Productions & Matthew Sycle, Tom Tuft, JC Chasez/Boucher & Grant, IPN/NSST Entertainment, Jelmoni & Lazar/Lauren Kennedy Brady, D’Angora Padgett Productions/Willette Klausner, Scott & Mark Hoying/Manhead Merch, Griffin Schultz/Donald Smith, FGSW Productions/Iris Smith (producers) “Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)” (Longacre Theatre) *** Kevin McCollum, Tim Johanson, Glass Half Full Productions, Jamie Wilson Productions, Evan McGill, Dennis Trunfio, Abrams Corr Riemer Productions, Marc David Levine & Stephen S. Miller, Laura Lonergan, James L. Nederlander, Michael Patrick & Paul Gavriani, Merrie L. Davis/Tony Spinosa & Barbara Gallay, Walport Productions, Agrawal & PBT/JKDNV Productions, Aleff & Nothing Ventured/Flatto Turchin, Pam & Stephen Della Pietra, Nicole Eisenberg/Willette & Manny Klausner, Liddell Shilaimon/John Voege, Cecilia Lin/Wanyue Jie, Kevin Shen/We Believe, The Transatlantic Alliance/IPN, Oki Wallace-Phoebe/Laurie Tisch & Greg Field, Clemmie Forfar, Oliver Mackwood, Victoria Weinberg, Lucas McMahon, The Kiln Theatre (producers)
