When you have seven different games between teams that were just announced in the top 25 of the new College Football Playoff Rankings, the postseason outlook hung in the balance throughout a chaotic Week 10. The day provided some massive wins for top teams, certainly, but also yet another change at No. 1.
Notre Dame's 31-24 win against Miami will open up the top spot for debate regarding the best team in college football. We will have to wait until Tuesday night to hear from the College Football Playoff Selection Committee, but fans get their first look at the new landscape with the release of an updated AP Top 25 poll on Sunday.
We project that Georgia will move up into the No. 1 spot in the wake of an impressive wire-to-wire win at Ole Miss on Saturday night, edging out a Utah team that will certainly have a case with its 9-0 record and its own high-quality Week 10 win against BYU. The AP voters had a closer gap between Georgia and Miami than they did between Georgia and Utah, and those signals point to the Bulldogs keeping that margin to the tune of returning to the No. 1 spot just ahead of the Utes.
As for the Fighting Irish, beating Miami provides an interesting moment in rankings analysis because of the disparity between the AP poll and the College Football Playoff Rankings. Notre Dame was slotted at No. 11 by the selection committee and in that lens, should be poised for a big move up after beating No. 1.
The only problem? Notre Dame was already up in a top position in the eyes of the AP voters at No. 4, and that leaves much less room for a big move up in those rankings despite the impressive and much-needed win.
Other winners from the ranked-on-ranked games will see some notable improvements in the AP poll, including moves up for Tennessee and Alabama after double-digit wins against other ranked SEC foes. It's going to also put a spotlight on the cut line for a top 25 ballot, as teams like Ole Miss and LSU fight for inclusion after taking their third loss of the season.
Here's how we think the new AP Top 25 poll will look on Sunday after Week 10:
1. Georgia (Last week -- 2): After thrashing Ole Miss, the Bulldogs are set to return to the No. 1 spot. Georgia reached No. 1 earlier this season for a one-week residence before the upset loss to Auburn, and now that stunning, turnover-filled defeat is the lone blemish on a resume that is otherwise highlighted by wins over Alabama, Ole Miss and Florida.
2. Utah (3): There was already one brave AP poll voter who had Utah as their No. 1 team coming into the week, and we're projecting that they'll have more company after the Utes emerged victorious in a 28-20 thriller against rival BYU.
3. Notre Dame (4): As we mentioned earlier, it's extremely difficult to know exactly how the AP voters will react to the differences in their rankings and the selection committee's decisions. In Notre Dame's case, there is an instinct to improve their position from No. 11, but voters individually don't have much room to move the Fighting Irish up on their ballots if the team was at No. 4 last week.
4. UCLA (5): The great power of the Bruins' ranking remains as Bob Chesney's crew improved to 9-0 with a win at Minnesota. The victory added to an impressive series of road performances for UCLA, and also included a wild second half showing from quarterback Ty Dieffenbach. The Bruins' starter finished with 303 passing yards and three touchdowns on just eight completions behind explosive pass plays of 75, 75, 54 and 27 yards, with three of those coming after halftime.
5. Miami (1): A close loss on the road to another top team has its limits for rankings punishment. That is especially true when it's early November, the first loss of the season, and it also comes without your star wide receiver because of a recent injury. Miami could fall lower, but it's hard to imagine an 8-1 team with obvious quality loss dropping behind multiple two-loss teams.
6. Alabama (9): The AP voters already had Alabama as the top two-loss team in the country last week, but that status is now undeniable after the Crimson Tide pulled away from LSU for a 31-13 win in Baton Rouge. Kalen DeBoer's team got off to a strong start and stayed in control most of the afternoon, then finished on a 21-0 run the moment LSU got its first lead of the game. The win adds to victories against Kentucky and South Carolina, building a solid resume even against other teams with fewer losses.
7. Indiana (6): The Hoosiers were off in Week 10 and will be back in action next week at home against USC.
8. Texas (10): There is not a ton of room for upward movement after a hard-fought road win at Missouri, but the Longhorns definitely strengthened their resume with the road win. Though the Tigers could fall from the top 25 after the defeat, it's still a quality win that will bolster Texas' status as a top-10 team.
9. Tennessee (16): This is admittedly a big jump up in the rankings but one that could be warranted after both a 34-6 point win against Kentucky and also the success of Alabama at LSU. The Vols could ultimately be held back from jumping ahead of Alabama because of the head-to-head loss to Texas, but anything between No. 6 and No. 10 is fair game for a Tennessee team that is 7-2 with a pair of top-end wins against teams that were ranked in the top 10 at the time.
10. Texas Tech (13): The Red Raiders are currently in action against West Virginia.
11. Wake Forest (14): Starting quarterback Gio Lopez was able to spend an extra week getting healthy for the final push of the season as his Demon Deacon teammates crushed FCS Merrimack 77-0.
12. BYU (7): The Cougars could end up getting credit for their competitiveness in a 28-20 loss at Utah that had more than a couple of self-inflicted wounds preventing the upset rivalry win. BYU had a 20-0 run in the middle of this game but saw its last effort end on a Bear Bachmeier interception that dropped the Cougars to 7-2 overall. The win against Notre Dame clearly serves as the strongest resume point for BYU, but the playoff conversation in general is getting late early with two conference losses and few quality win opportunities left.
13. Kentucky (8): Wins against LSU and South Carolina keep the floor pretty high for Kentucky, but it should be noted the AP voters were a bit lower on the Wildcats than the selection committee. So the drop to No. 13 is really just a five-spot drop for the AP voters, while it would be a seven-spot drop from their CFP Rankings placement of No. 6.
14. Houston (17): The Cougars improved to 7-2 after surviving a good test from Cincinnati, holding on for a 31-24 win behind three total touchdowns from Conner Weigman. Houston is working with a bit of a quality loss resume, with unranked Oklahoma State as its best win, but their quality has held up across nine games, and the only two losses are each by one score to other ranked teams on the road (Utah, Texas Tech).
15. Oregon (NR): The Ducks were ranked in the College Football Playoff Selection Committee top 25 and will absolutely be set for a return to the AP poll after a 41-28 win in Columbus against Ohio State. It's unclear whether the reaction will be stronger for Oregon after the win or the Buckeyes after the loss, but a 6-3 record with wins over Ohio State, USC and Boise State is a solid resume for top 25 consideration.
16. USC (18): The Trojans were off in Week 10 and will be back in action next week at Indiana.
17. Ohio State (11): The AP voters are not tasked with the same injury consideration protocols the in the same way as the College Football Playoff Selection Committee, and thus we're not projecting Saturday's loss to Oregon to be treated as anything other than a defeat to another Big Ten title contender. Wins against Indiana and Iowa serve as the best buffer to keep Ohio State from a rankings free-fall.
18. Boise State (20): The Broncos did not have starting quarterback Maddux Madsen due to injury, but that did not stop the team from putting 64 points on the board against a Colorado State team that has gotten picked apart in Pac-12 play. Now 8-1 overall, Boise State's attention turns to its home stretch of the season, which includes the first-ever Pac-12 flex week at the end of November with a matchup yet to be determined for Week 13.
19. Iowa (21): A road test at Northwestern proved to be yet another resume point for an Iowa team that continues to handle its business. The Hawkeyes have wins over Northwestern, Wisconsin and Michigan, and just two losses on the season to Ohio State and Minnesota. It's not a resume that overwhelms voters, but in a season that lacks consistency there is something comforting about Iowa's 7-2 profile.
20. New Mexico (22): The Lobos are going to keep the historic AP ranking the program achieved last week, but the margins around the cut line are slim enough to be concerned about giving up a spot in the consensus rankings. Teams like Oregon and Ohio State occupying spaces in the 20s make it tough for New Mexico to win some of those tiebreaker resume debates, even if their 8-1 record is two games better than those preseason title picks.
21. South Carolina (23): The winning streak continues with South Carolina now up to four wins in a row since starting 0-3 in SEC play. The Gamecocks' victory against Texas A&M in Columbia isn't going to move the voters individually, but the collective appreciation of South Carolina's late-season form will continue to get respect, and the win against Tennessee certainly holds more weight now for the argument that this should be among the highest-ranked three-loss teams in the country.
22. Ole Miss (12): Not only did the Rebels lose in a great opportunity with Georgia in town, but Ole Miss' resume took a hit with the results from SEC play in Week 10. Wins against both LSU and Missouri take on less weight after both of those teams are headed down, if not out, in the rankings, as Ole Miss seems destined to get pinned with similar three-loss teams near the edge of the top 25.
23. Arizona (24): Unranked by the College Football Playoff Selection Committee but ranked by the AP voters last week, the Wildcats are going to be right on the cut line after needing a late onside kick and field goal to avoid an upset against TCU. Arizona does stand out with its 7-2 record, but its best win came against Cincinnati, and it's 0-2 against other ranked teams this season.
24. LSU (15): There is an argument to drop LSU from the top 25 based on an absence of high-quality wins, but we aren't projecting that reaction from the AP voters. Lane Kiffin's Tigers will have an opportunity to win their way back up the rankings with matchups against Texas and Tennessee in the coming weeks, but for now, LSU has just three SEC wins against opponents who have a combined 6-14 record in conference play. Voters might not drop LSU from No. 15 all the way out for losing a national title contender, but the Tigers are absolutely on notice if they can't win out.
25. SMU (NR): The Mustangs improved to 7-2 with an eye-popping 51-28 win against Virginia Tech on Friday night in Dallas. The victory sets up the potential for an appearance in the top 25 ahead of a massive showdown with Wake Forest in Week 11.
Projected to drop out: No. 19 Missouri, No. 25 Florida
