Thunder vs. Spurs predictions: Experts re-pick Western Conference Finals based on everything we know now

The Western Conference Finals have lived up to the hype so far. The Thunder and Spurs are locked in a tightly contested series that is all tied up at 2-2 entering Tuesday night's Game 5. The best-of-seven series has become a best-of-three series. Whoever wins twice this week will advance to face the Knicks in the NBA Finals.

While we expected a lengthy series from the beginning, things have changed for both teams, with injuries playing a fairly large role in the Western Conference Finals. The Thunder are still favored to win the series and the NBA title on FanDuel, but OKC will have to overcome injuries to Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell. Can Victor Wembanyama will his Spurs side to two more wins? Or will the reigning champs get back to the Finals in search of the NBA's first repeat since 2018?

Based on everything we know through four games, we're re-picking the Western Conference Finals.

Thunder vs. Spurs predictions: Experts re-pick West Finals

Gonzalez: Thunder in 7. The injuries to two of the Thunder's best scorers and shot creators do not serve OKC well. But while OKC pretty much no-showed in Game 4, the Thunder were fantastic in Game 3 -- and they were missing Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell in that one too. It really comes down to which version of the Thunder shows up the rest of the way. Alex Caruso, Jared McCain and Co. put up a franchise playoff record 76 points in Game 3. Then they followed that up with a dud in Game 4, with Caruso somehow failing to score and McCain going 1 for 10 from the floor. I'm far less concerned about the role players bouncing back than Chet Holmgren basically being a non-factor in the series. But I originally picked OKC in 7, and I'm not inclined to change that now. This thing is going the distance either way.

Herbert: Thunder in 7. I am philosophically opposed to changing a prediction midway through the series, so Thunder in 7 it is. Admittedly, this is looking less likely now, given that OKC's second- and third-best creators are dealing with a strained hamstring and strained calf, respectively, but those injuries don't mean the defending champs are drawing dead. If any team is capable of overcoming shaky halfcourt offense by forcing turnovers and getting out in transition, it's this one. We've seen the Thunder do it against great teams in the playoffs before.

Kalland: Spurs in 6. I'll start by saying this series living up to expectations is something we all deserved as basketball fans, and I think it's only going to get better from here. That's because I'm not sure how many more levers there are for each team to pull in terms of adjustments, which turns this series into a best-of-three battle of wills. Typically, I'd lean toward experience and the defending champs in that kind of situation, but this Spurs team seems genuinely fearless and Victor Wembanyama is a problem that no one has a long-term solution for. I'll say San Antonio pinches Game 5 on the road Tuesday night and rides a raucous home crowd to a Game 6 win to prevent this from reaching a winner-take-all showdown in OKC.

Maloney: Thunder in 7. Jalen Williams' and Ajay Mitchell's injuries are a big blow for the reigning champs, but I picked Thunder in 7 before the series and, like James, I'm sticking with that out of principle. Plus, the Thunder still have the MVP, an elite defense and home-court advantage. And as bad as Game 4 was, it's not as if the Spurs put up 150 points on them. If the Thunder can maintain their stout defense and get better offensive showings from their role players at home, they can still get back to the Finals even if Williams and Mitchell remain sidelined.

Quinn: Spurs in 7. It's sad, but you almost have to pick the Spurs because of health, right? Oklahoma City's offense was dead on arrival in Game 4 with neither Jalen Williams nor Ajay Mitchell around to provide secondary shot-creation. In Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder still have one, MVP-level creator, but the offense after that is mostly full of dependent players. Chet Holmgren is a star in basically every way except creating shots. Jared McCain has thrived as a role player in Oklahoma City, but he had his worst game of the playoffs in Game 4 when he needed to do a bit more. The series is by no means over. We'll see if Williams and/or Mitchell can make it back. But until they do, or the Thunder find some other way to break the impenetrable wall Victor Wembanyama has built at the rim, the Spurs are simply the more responsible pick.

Salerno: Thunder in 6. Almost everyone is likely to pick this series to go the distance. Understandably so. I hope it happens. However, I'm going to play devil's advocate because my original pick was OKC in 6. I'm sticking to that prediction. Even with injuries, this OKC team is different. I'm still waiting for a big scoring game from SGA. He's due for a 40-burger this week. I feel less confident picking the Thunder to win in six games than I did earlier this month, but I'll stick with my original prediction. The Knicks will face the Thunder in the NBA Finals.