FILE – A farmer applies fertilizer to her land in Limuru, Kenya, March 25, 2026. (AP Photo/Jackson Njehia, File) Fluctuations in oil and grain prices as the Strait of Hormuz went from reopening to closed again is a reminder that food security for billions remains vulnerable to events thousands of miles away. This is not a sign of resilience, but of fragility.
When the movement of fertilizer and fuel is disrupted, farmers and consumers feel the consequences almost immediately. This dependence reveals a fundamental weakness in a food system built around subsidizing fossil fuel-intensive inputs rather than investing in long-term resilience and sustainability — both economic and environmental.
The result is that food price inflation may not peak until next year while an additional 20 million people are expected to fall into poverty because of the impact of the conflict. It leaves no doubt that countries around the world should accelerate the transition toward more resilient, climate-smart and economically viable food systems.
More than $800 billion in annual agricultural subsidies represents one of the largest financial leverage points in global food systems. Redirecting even a fraction of this away from vulnerable, fossil fuel-intensive inputs and toward building the long-term resilience, sustainability and productivity that farmers need will help achieve global goals for climate action, food security and rural livelihoods.
Evidence shows that farmers who most need public support are largely shut out, with smallholders receiving as little as 35 cents of real value for every dollar spent in subsidies. And this is stretched even further in countries like Kenya, where fuel prices doubled during the conflict in the Middle East, hitting women smallholders hardest of all.
Yet, the world’s 600 million smallholders — responsible for around one-third of global food supplies — are fundamental to the transition towards more sustainable agriculture, a sector that generates around one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions.
In recognition of this, some governments are taking steps to repurpose public funding more strategically to achieve greater productivity, human health, nutrition and sustainability goals in food systems.
For example, the government of the Philippines has repurposed fertilizer subsidies to support smallholder rice farmers with machinery, seeds and sustainable practices through its Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund, improving rice farmer competitiveness and rural incomes.
Brazil has built one of the strongest policy frameworks in the world, putting livelihoods, food security and nature at the heart of agricultural policy. This includes a $15 billion annual subsidized credit program for smallholder farmers and a national school feeding program requiring 45 percent sourcing of school food budgets from smallholder farmers.
And in Malawi, the expansion of domestic fertilizer production is helping the country save on import costs and reduce emissions. The homemade Mbeya fertilizer, a composted blend of inorganic fertilizer, manure, bran and ash, achieves near-equivalent yields to full inorganic application at much lower cost.
In line with the 2024 Nairobi Declaration to triple domestic fertilizer production in 10 years, major expansion plans are also under way across Nigeria, Ethiopia, Morocco, Angola, Zambia, South Africa, Tanzania, Kenya, Senegal, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, reducing costly import dependence.
But to establish global momentum and overcome the backlash that often comes with subsidy reform, countries also need more evidence, options and convincing narratives for alternative solutions that will benefit farmers. Sharing experiences and best practices at a global level, while also engaging directly with farmers and producers, can help replicate successful approaches in similar contexts.
This is why the High-Level Panel for a Just Rural Transition, which I chair, convened at London Climate Action Week last month. At Clim-Eat’s House of Impact, global leaders and policymakers had the chance to share challenges and solutions in the journey towards a just rural transition.
These shared insights and global best practices will help inform a flagship publication that will be released at the COP31 climate talks to help guide the repurposing of agricultural subsidies at greater scale.
Repurposing public support can incentivize farmers to adopt climate-smart practices, reduce vulnerability to future shocks, attract private investment and scale innovations such as green ammonia fertilizers, soil health measures and improved animal diets. The benefits extend beyond farms, helping consumers through more resilient food systems, greater price stability and healthier environments.
As we approach COP31, our panel will continue to work to support governments to conceive of and adopt effective policies that reform public support for agriculture and support a just rural transition for people, nature, and climate.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be welcome news, but it does not solve the deeper problem. As long as food systems remain vulnerable to distant geopolitical disruptions, true food security will remain elusive. Building resilience requires a deliberate transition toward more sustainable, diversified, and climate-smart agricultural systems.
Carlos Alvarado Quesada, former president of Costa Rica and chair of the High-Level Panel for a Just Rural Transition
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