New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, celebrates with Democratic congressional candidate Darializa Avila Chevalier during an election night watch party Tuesday, June 23, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig) Once is a surprise, twice is a coincidence, three or more is a movement.
By that measure, the Democratic Party’s progressive wing is undeniably experiencing a genuine moment. That segment of the left is better organized, louder and increasingly vying for control of the Democratic Party.
But the progressive left has not yet fully taken over the party, though the shrinking pool of moderates must now find a way to coexist with the insurgent left, rather than the other way around.
Recent elections in New York City underscore the energy and organizational strength of progressives in deep-blue polities, though it’s questionable whether that strength translates to states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, or Georgia. Make no mistake however: The progressive — often socialist — left’s rise has potentially significant implications for American politics.
Indeed, start with New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani. His election was the surprise, given his age, inexperience and his victory over establishment-backed and deep-pocketed former Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
The coincidence came in Maine, where Graham Platner’s progressive-backed Senate campaign points to the same trend: The left is no longer merely protesting from the outside. It is winning power inside the party. Further, the fact that Platner, despite multiple scandals retains the support of progressives — and leads incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins by 5 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average — underscores this ascendency.
Next, progressives announced their movement following New York City’s primaries. Mamdani said so himself. At a victory party, he proclaimed, “A year ago, it was not the end of a political movement, it was the beginning.” Three Mamdani-backed, socialist candidates won their races, toppling two establishment-backed incumbents — Reps. Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.) and Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.).
As the New York Times said, the results “force a Democratic Party, already searching for its identity, to reckon with its ascendant, unapologetic left.”
The movement Mamdani described has made clear that it intends to push the larger Democratic Party in its direction. At a party for one of Mamdani’s candidates, supporters were “booing and chanting ‘your next’” referring to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).
Jeffries and other Democratic leaders should worry. Among Democrats, 49 percent have a favorable view of socialism versus just 26 percent having a favorable view of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), the embodiment of the establishment.
To be sure, New York City is hardly representative of the country. A victory in a low-turnout primary in one of the most progressive cities in America cannot automatically be extrapolated into a national mandate. Likewise, it’s doubtful whether a progressive or socialist candidate could win enough independents to carry the battleground states necessary to win the White House.
Consider socialist candidate Darializa Avila Chevalier, who won New York’s 13th district, upsetting incumbent Adriano Espaillat. First, she won just 7 percent of active voters in the district — hardly a mandate. But her past statements, including support for socialism, abolishing police and prisons, and questioning Israel’s right to exist, are unlikely to appeal to persuadable voters in Pennsylvania, North Carolina or Georgia.
In that same vein, despite recent success and savvy use of social media to amplify their voice, the extreme left remains a remarkably small percentage of the electorate. According to Pew Research, “leftward progressives” make up just 7 percent of the national electorate. Including Democrats inclined to populist policies only takes it up to 19 percent.
And yet, that number stands to grow. Gallup polling revealed that nearly 6 in 10 Democrats (59 percent) now identify as “very liberal” or “liberal” up from one-third in 2005 and one-quarter in 1994.
To that end, Michigan will offer a key test. The Senate race is currently close between left-wing Abdul El-Sayed (32 percent) and establishment-backed Haley Stevens (29 percent), per RealClearPolitics’ aggregator. If El-Sayed wins, it would provide further evidence that the progressive left’s influence is extending into more politically competitive terrain.
Yet the rise of the progressive left risks alienating not only independents, but Democrats’ historical base. In New York’s 13th, Chevalier’s strength came disproportionately from precincts that were younger, more college educated and higher income, while Espaillat performed better in Hispanic, Black and lower-income areas.
Gallup data suggests the same trend nationally, with the sharpest leftward movement among college-educated white Democrats.
That may indicate a looming problem: if Black voters in Atlanta, or Hispanic voters in Arizona come to believe that the Democratic Party has been taken over by a largely college-educated, affluent, white activist class, the party could suffer. That’s a genuine concern as it’s now a growing likelihood that progressives mount a leadership challenge in 2026 and a presidential candidate in 2028.
Ultimately, the Democratic Party must acknowledge the left’s rise. Progressives bring an energetic new electorate into the fold and help build enthusiasm among less frequent voters.
That said, the challenge is whether Democrats can maintain a big-tent that includes progressives without allowing the politics of the deepest-blue districts to define the party nationally.
That will determine whether the far left’s rise strengthens Democrats by energizing new voters, or weakens them by alienating the moderates, independents, Black voters, Hispanic voters and working-class voters they need to win the White House.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book “America: Unite or Die.“
Add as preferred source on Google Tags Abdul El-Sayed Adriano Espaillat Adriano Espaillat Andrew Cuomo Andrew Cuomo Chuck Schumer Chuck Schumer Daniel Goldman Democratic Party Donald Trump Graham Platner Hakeem Jeffries Hakeem Jeffries Haley Stevens House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner Minority Leader Chuck Schumer New York City Progressive left Rep. Adriano Espaillat Rep. Dan Goldman Sen. Susan Collins Susan Collins Susan Collins Zohran Mamdani Zohran MamdaniCopyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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