NOW PLAYING
President Trump and his Republican colleagues are in a race against time, hoping that inflation can be bent downward in time to revive their chances in November’s midterm elections.
Seen through one lens, the picture is bleak.
New data released late last week on personal consumption expenditures (PCE) showed inflation above 4 percent. Even excluding food and gas costs, so-called core inflation was at 3.4 percent for the year ending in May. This, in turn, makes an imminent reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve much less likely — despite Trump’s clamoring for it.
Gas prices also remain elevated, with the national average cost per gallon at $3.90 on Friday, according to AAA. Although down from its apex, this price is still almost $1 above the level that was seen just before Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attacked Iran in late February.
On the other hand, different elements of the picture give more hope to Republicans — especially when it comes to the apparent winding-down of the war with the Islamic Republic.
Oil prices are plummeting. On Friday afternoon, West Texas Intermediate crude, the industry benchmark, was trading at around $70 a barrel — only minimally above where it was at the outbreak of the war and way down from its early April peak of more than $112.
The dramatic fall in oil prices should be reflected in due course at the pump — and, consequently, through the broader economy.
But will prices be curbed fast enough to improve Republicans’ chances in November?
“We have time, but we don’t have that much time,” GOP strategist Matt Mackowiak said. “There are several reasons for Republicans to believe things are going to get better. The questions are: How much better are they going to get, and how much are voters going to feel it?”
The polling numbers demonstrate just how steep a climb the president and his party are facing.
Inflation is consistently the issue on which Trump performs worst when voters are asked about his performance in office.
In the polling averages maintained by RealClearPolitics, Trump’s net rating is almost 40 points underwater on the topic. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week found that just 22 percent of adults approved of how Trump was handling their cost of living, while 69 percent disapproved.
Amid all the melodrama that attends Trump, it is easy to forget that he was elected in part because of a belief among his supporters that he would boost the economy.
Exit polls from the 2024 election show 32 percent of voters rated the economy the most important issue. More than 4 out of 5 of them backed Trump over his Democratic opponent, then-Vice President Kamala Harris.
To be sure, the stock market has performed strongly during Trump’s time in office. The broad-based S&P 500 is up roughly 20 percent since his second inauguration in January 2025. Gross domestic product growth has been decent but unspectacular.
Most pertinently of all, inflation has remained stubborn. In November 2024, the month of Trump’s reelection, the annualized rate of inflation was 2.7 percent. The reading one year later was exactly the same. The rate ebbed slightly at the start of this year, only to ramp up again as a consequence of the war with Iran.
In the latest figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, for May, inflation climbed to 4.2 percent. It was the highest reading in three years.
Trump has long claimed that inflation in general and gas prices in particular would fall rapidly once the war is over — “like a rock,” as he is fond of saying.
A similar message comes from aides.
White House spokesperson Kush Desai told this column via email that last week’s PCE numbers were “expectation-beating” and that this “reinforces that temporary disruptions to energy markets as a result of the Iranian conflict are not passing through to non-energy goods.”
Desai added: “Now that President Trump’s historic MOU [memorandum of understanding] with Iran is now signed and in effect, energy prices are plummeting — and overall inflation will quickly follow suit. Americans can count on the pre-Operation Epic Fury trend of cooling inflation and rising real wages returning thanks to the President’s agenda.”
Trump himself plainly understands the salience of the issue.
In a social media post last week, he said he had asked the Department of Justice to look into why “big Oil Companies are not dropping their price at the pump commensurate with the sharply lower prices they are paying for Oil.” Customers, the president contended, were being “gouged.”
Regardless of where that particular probe goes, outside experts are unpersuaded that inflation will be curbed fast enough to shift voter sentiment in a significant way before November.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told this column that “inflation should moderate, but it’s a long road back.” He contended that bringing inflation down to 2 percent — the longstanding target of the Federal Reserve — was unlikely to happen “until this time next year at the earliest.”
Democratic lawmakers, meanwhile, are seeking to ensure that inflation weighs Trump and the GOP down as heavily as possible.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) argued, “Trumpflation is getting worse and worse” in a floor speech earlier this month. Schumer also contended that “Republicans aren’t just failing to address the affordability crisis, they’re making it worse. Actively making it worse.”
The administration remains adamant that the economic picture is rosier than its detractors make it appear.
Peter Navarro, Trump’s senior counselor for trade and manufacturing, argued in an op-ed last week that interest rate hikes should not be contemplated.
“Inflation remains elevated, but the shock is still heavily energy-led. Growth is holding firm. Business investment remains strong. The labor market is not collapsing. And there are no alarm bells here that justify raising interest rates into the teeth of an oil-price shock,” Navarro wrote.
But for all that, voters are deeply discontented. It’s not at all clear that will change between now and November.
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.
Add as preferred source on Google Tags Benjamin Netanyahu Donald Trump Kamala Harris Mark Zandi Matt MackowiakCopyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Comments: Link copiedMore Administration News
See All
Defense US, Iran agree to ‘stand down for now,’ resume peace talks: Official by Tara Suter 11 hours ago Defense / 11 hours ago 
