The Memo: Iran peace train stays on tracks but faces steep climb

Administration The Memo: Iran peace train stays on tracks but faces steep climb Comments: by Niall Stanage - 06/22/26 5:23 PM ET Comments: Link copied by Niall Stanage - 06/22/26 5:23 PM ET Comments: Link copied

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The Iran peace train is, for now, still on the tracks after an initial meeting in Switzerland involving Vice President Vance and high-level officials from the Islamic Republic.

There are massive perils ahead that will require painstaking navigation, however, including negotiating the nitty-gritty of Iran’s nuclear program and keeping a lid on the volatile situation in Lebanon.

The latter issue is particularly vexing right now, as a wide gap yawns between U.S. imperatives and those of the Israeli government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which wants to continue its invasion of southern Lebanon amid its battles with Hezbollah.

Vance sought to put a positive gloss on the initial talks near Lucerne, Switzerland, nonetheless, contending that the negotiators had enjoyed a “very, very good day.”

But it was notable that the main item Vance held out as a victory on Monday — an apparent concession from the Iranians to facilitate inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency — merely replicates an arrangement under the Obama-era deal President Trump so frequently excoriates.

And even this purported American gain — which the Iranians have not confirmed at time of writing — was counterbalanced by a significant advance for Tehran.

The U.S. Treasury Department officially lifted restrictions for 60 days on the sale of Iranian oil, allowing the Islamic Republic to immediately begin exports at market value. The revenues could begin to repair the damage incurred during the weeks of U.S. and Israeli bombing that began on Feb. 28.

The notes of guarded optimism from Lucerne seem unlikely to reassure detractors, who believe Trump consented to an overly weak deal in the memorandum of understanding (MOU) released last week.

The 14-point MOU provoked a blizzard of blowback, as critics on the right asserted it was too soft on Iran and critics on the left claimed it exposed the folly of Trump’s decision to start the war in the first place.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) fretted last week that “unfortunately, the president is receiving some really bad advice on this deal,” while prominent conservative commentator Ben Shapiro, known for his strong support of Israel, branded it a “disaster.”

Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) mocked Trump for having engaged in “the art of the surrender.”

For the moment, however, Trump seems to be staying fixed on the immediate goal of getting the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened.

To be sure, there has been real progress in that regard. The U.S. claimed 55 merchant ships transited the vital shipping channel on Saturday. It’s a level well short of the prewar situation but a sizable improvement from the days of a near-total blockage.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil, an industry benchmark, was trading around $75 a barrel on Monday afternoon, having surged to more than $112 when the crisis was at its worst. The U.S. national average price for a gallon of gas has fallen below $4 once again — to $3.93 according to AAA.

Those improvements can’t come too soon for Trump, whose poll ratings are mired near second-term lows; or for his party, which is nervously eyeing midterm elections that are now little more than four months away.

An Associated Press-NORC poll released late last week found 65 percent of adults unhappy with how Trump is handling the situation in Iran.

Trump being Trump, he is casting the deal as a major victory and throwing aggressive words in Iran’s direction.

In a social media post on Sunday morning, he threatened that if Iran did not stop Lebanese allies — presumably Hezbollah — “from causing trouble,” then the U.S. would “hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!!!”

Such threats in turn sparked uproar among the Iranian delegation in Switzerland, though Vance sought to play the tensions down in remarks on Monday.

“They did threaten to walk out, or at least there were social media threats that they would walk out. But we were negotiating well past one in the morning yesterday, so they didn’t walk out,” the vice president said.

Vance has now left Switzerland, as has Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of the Iranian parliament and a central figure in the talks process from Tehran’s side. Technical negotiations over the nature of the nuclear program, among other topics, will go on without them.

The negotiators will have to put a lot of flesh on the MOU’s skeletal bones in that regard — a formidable task to try to complete within a 60-day deadline. The Obama-era deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), took about a year-and-a-half to negotiate and, including annexes to the main deal, ran to almost 160 pages.

There are massive, substantive questions to be answered. The MOU suggested that some of Iran’s highly enriched uranium will be diluted — “downblended” — but will that be the case for all of it? Will any be shipped to a third country? Iran is, for the moment, adamant that it will not give up its right — as it sees it — to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes in the future. Is that acceptable to the United States?

Separately, the more immediate danger to the talks is the Lebanon issue.

More than 4,100 people have been killed since early March, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. In one 24-hour period late last week, 47 people were reported killed in Israeli air strikes, while four Israeli soldiers were also killed after a Hezbollah attack on their tank.

The consternation in Israel over the deal is strong, especially as many in the nation had viewed Trump as a stalwart supporter. Netanyahu, looking at his own political fortunes, may seek to press on in Lebanon. This impulse has already caused ructions with Trump.

For now, there is a chance of a lasting deal. But all sides recognize it’s a distance away — and progress could unravel in a moment.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.

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