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Democrats are going through a turbulent time, but all the drama shows little sign of shifting the battle for the Senate definitively against them. Party insiders believe they retain a solid chance of retaking control of the upper chamber.
The political agenda has been shaped recently by former Democratic nominee Graham Platner’s withdrawal from the Senate race in Maine after an allegation of rape, which he denies. Headlines have also been made by the heated Senate Democratic primary fight in Michigan between Abdul El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.).
More broadly, there have been fierce internal battles between the ascendant left — including members of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) — and the more centrist party establishment.
Yet, after all that, the Senate battlefield has largely kept its existing contours.
“I think the national environment favors us,” said Democratic consultant Mark Longabaugh. “Looking at polling I am privy to in our races, Trump is underwater — including in places where he should not be underwater.”
Skeptics, however, warn that the situation has become more muddled amid recent events. They point to some signs that the so-called generic ballot has tightened, narrowing Democrats’ national advantage, and to the fact that the opposition party has precious little margin for error.
Democrats need to net four Senate seats to win back the majority.
They are confident of notching a victory in North Carolina, where popular former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is their nominee. Republican hopes of winning a seat back in Georgia are diminishing as Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) shows strength in polls and on the campaign trail.
That leaves six true battlegrounds, with Democrats needing to win three of them to take the Senate, or four with a loss in Michigan.
Democrats appear to have slight advantages in polls in Ohio and perhaps Alaska, though polling is extremely sparse in the latter. They are also competitive in Iowa, which has trended Republican in recent years, and in Texas, where Republican primary voters ousted Sen. John Cornyn in favor of state Attorney General Ken Paxton as their standard-bearer. Paxton is widely seen as a riskier choice to do battle with Democratic nominee James Talarico.
There are two real wild cards left.
In Maine, everything is up in the air. Platner looks likely to be replaced by Troy Jackson, a former president of the state Senate, as the Democratic nominee. Jackson is seen as a progressive, and Democrats hope he can generate grassroots enthusiasm. That said, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) is a wily and often-underrated political operator. There is not yet any credible polling on a Collins-Jackson match-up.
In Michigan, polling is mixed on whether El-Sayed or Stevens would have the greater chance of defending the seat that is being vacated by retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D).
Supporters of the centrist Stevens are adamant she is better placed to win a general election than the progressive El-Sayed. But the most recent major poll to run head-to-head match-ups, from Quantus Insights, found each Democrat edging out former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) — but by only a single point.
The bottom line is that Democrats like their chances in the Senate, despite their recent travails. They have long believed they will overturn the narrow GOP majority in the House, too.
Mostly, Democrats say the party’s relative strength is a consequence of President Trump’s unpopularity and a restive electorate’s dissatisfaction with the economy and the war in Iran.
Trump, despite the fervency of his most loyal supporters, looks to be a drag on GOP candidates. His approval rating in the polling average maintained by The Hill’s data partner Decision Desk HQ is 16 points in negative territory, with roughly 57 percent of Americans disapproving of his performance and only 41 percent approving.
Trump’s poll ratings on some of the most salient issues for voters also spell trouble for the GOP.
His average approval rating on the economy is just 38 percent, with 59 percent of survey respondents disapproving, according to the average maintained by RealClearPolitics. On inflation and the cost of living, his numbers are even worse: 30 percent approving and 67 percent disapproving. On Iran, 37 percent approve and 60 percent disapprove.
Given numbers like those, it’s no wonder that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) often insists his party is “poised” to take back control.
To be sure, Republicans don’t see it that way.
They argue that states like Iowa, Texas and perhaps even Ohio will break their way in the end, given their electoral history.
Trump carried Texas by almost 14 points, Iowa by 13 and Ohio by 11 in 2024. The latter two states have trended sharply Republican over the past decade, while Democratic hopes of winning statewide in Texas have been repeatedly dashed.
When it comes to the overall Senate battle, GOP consultant Ron Bonjean told this column, “I just feel a lot better at this point than I did a few months ago.”
Bonjean cited the Platner chaos in Maine as one reason but also contended Democrats’ focus on Trump does not “move the needle.”
Like other Republicans, Bonjean believes the rise of DSA and the left gives his party a golden opportunity to paint opponents as outside the mainstream.
“The democratic socialists, in the messaging they’re putting out there, are extremely helpful to our chances in the Senate,” he said. “The ‘socialist’ message can really be used against Democrats at large.”
Operatives across the aisle wave away that idea — and they are especially insistent that it’s unlikely to work against some of their most prominent Senate candidates.
Jerry Austin, a veteran Democratic strategist in Ohio, was adamant such attacks would get little traction against party nominee Sherrod Brown, who served in the Senate for almost two decades before losing in 2024 to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio).
“That’s overplayed,” said Austin of the “socialist” attacks. “There’s nobody in Ohio even trying to say Sherrod Brown is involved in any of that.”
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.
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