Texas vs. Purdue odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers and revealed its college basketball picks for this NCAA Tournament 2026 Sweet 16 matchup on Thursday

The 11th-seeded Texas Longhorns battle the second-seeded Purdue Boilermakers in a Sweet 16 matchup of the 2026 NCAA Tournament West Region on Thursday. Texas advanced with a 74-68 win over Gonzaga in Saturday's second-round matchup, while Purdue defeated Miami (Fla.) 79-69 on Sunday. The Longhorns (21-14), who finished 10th in the SEC at 9-9, have won three in a row. The Boilermakers (29-8), who tied for sixth in the Big Ten at 13-7, have won six straight, including the Big Ten Tournament title.

Tipoff from SAP Center in San Jose, Calif., is set for 7:10 p.m. ET on CBS. Purdue is a 7.5-point favorite in the latest Texas vs. Purdue odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 148.5. Before making any Texas vs. Purdue picks, check out the Texas vs. Purdue predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 Sweet 16 on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks.

Now, the model has simulated Texas vs. Purdue 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for Purdue vs. Texas:

Texas vs. Purdue spread:    

Purdue -7.5

Texas vs. Purdue over/under:    

148.5 points

Texas vs. Purdue money line:    

Purdue -355, Texas +277

Texas vs. Purdue picks:    

Texas vs. Purdue TV:

CBS

Top Texas vs. Purdue predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Texas vs. Purdue, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (148.5 points). The Over has hit in each of the last three head-to-head meetings. The Over has also hit in seven of the past 10 Purdue games. Texas is 4-6 against the spread in its last 10 games. Purdue, meanwhile, is 3-0 ATS in its last three.

The model projects the Longhorns to have four players score 13.7 points or more, including Dailyn Swain, who is projected to score 17 points. The Boilermakers are projected to have four players score 12.5 points or more, led by Trey Kaufman-Renn, who is projected to score 16.7 points. The model is projecting 158 combined points as the total is surpassed in 77% of simulations. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make Purdue vs. Texas picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Purdue vs. Texas 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits in more than 50% of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Texas vs. Purdue, and which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texas vs. Purdue spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.