Tennessee vs. Virginia odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliers and revealed its college basketball picks for this NCAA Tournament 2026 second-round matchup on Sunday

The No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers battle the third-seeded Virginia Cavaliers in the second round of the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region on Sunday. Tennessee is coming off a 78-56 win over Miami (Ohio) in Friday's first-round matchup, while Virginia defeated Wright State 82-73 that same day. The Volunteers (23-11), who tied for fourth in the SEC, have won two of their last three games. The Cavaliers (30-5), who placed second in the ACC at 15-3, have won five of their last six games.

Tip-off from Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia is set for 6:10 p.m. ET. Virginia leads the all-time series 8-6, but Tennessee earned a 64-42 win last season. The Vols are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Tennessee vs. Virginia odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 137.5. Before making any Tennessee vs. Virginia picks, check out the Tennessee vs. Virginia predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. 

Now, the model has simulated Tennessee vs. Virginia 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for Virginia vs. Tennessee:

Tennessee vs. Virginia spread:    

Tennessee -1.5

Tennessee vs. Virginia over/under:    

137.5 points

Tennessee vs. Virginia money line:    

Tennessee -118, Virginia -104

Tennessee vs. Virginia picks:    

Tennessee vs. Virginia TV:

TNT

Top Tennessee vs. Virginia predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Tennessee vs. Virginia, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (137.5 points). The Over has hit in each of the last five Virginia games. Tennessee is 5-5 against the spread in its last 10 games. Virginia, meanwhile, is 3-1 ATS in its last four.

The model projects the Volunteers to have three players score 9.6 points or more, including Ja'Kobi Gillespie, who is projected to score 17.6 points. The Cavaliers are projected to have three players score 12 points or more, led by Thijs De Ridder, who is projected to score 14.4 points. The model is projecting 146 combined points. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make Virginia vs. Tennessee picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Virginia vs. Tennessee 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Tennessee vs. Virginia, and which side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Tennessee vs. Virginia spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.