Tennessee vs. Iowa State odds, time, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Iowa State Cyclones vs. Tennessee Volunteers and revealed its college basketball picks for this NCAA Tournament 2026 Sweet 16 matchup on Friday

The six-seeded Tennessee Volunteers battle the second-seeded Iowa State Cyclones in a 2026 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region Sweet 16 matchup on Friday. Tennessee is coming off a 79-72 win over Virginia on Sunday in the second round, while Iowa State defeated Kentucky 82-63 on Sunday. The Volunteers (24-11), who tied for fourth in the SEC at 11-7, have won two in a row. The Cyclones (29-7), who came in tied for third in the Big 12 at 12-6, have also won two straight. Iowa State's Joshua Jefferson (ankle), the team's second-leading scorer and top rebounder, is listed as questionable. 

Tipoff from the United Center in Chicago is set for 10:10 p.m. ET. The Cyclones are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Tennessee vs. Iowa State odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 140.5. Before making any Iowa State vs. Tennessee picks, check out the Iowa State vs. Tennessee predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 Sweet 16 on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks.

Now, the model has simulated Tennessee vs. Iowa State 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for UConn vs. Michigan State:

Tennessee vs. Iowa State spread:    

Iowa State -3.5

Tennessee vs. Iowa State over/under:    

140.5 points

Tennessee vs. Iowa State money line:    

Iowa State -187, Tennessee +155

Tennessee vs. Iowa State picks:    

Tennessee vs. Iowa State TV:

TBS

Top Tennessee vs. Iowa State predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Tennessee vs. Iowa State, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (140.5 points). The over has hit in two of the last three games for the Cyclones. The total has gone over in four of the Cyclones' last five games against an opponent in the SEC. Tennessee, meanwhile, is coming off an over as the Vols and Virginia combined for 151 points in the second round. 

The model projects the Volunteers to have two players score 15 points or more, including Ja'Kobi Gillespie, who is projected to score 17.8 points. The Cyclones are projected to have two players score 15 points or more, led by Milan Momcilovic, who is projected to score 17.9 points. The model is projecting 148 combined points as the Over clears in 76.1% of simulations. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make Tennessee vs. Iowa State picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Iowa State vs. Tennessee 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Tennessee vs. Iowa State, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Tennessee vs. Iowa State spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.