It has been a very interesting Week 1 around college football -- don't even get me started on the Western Michigan-Michigan ending from Saturday, because I won't be getting over that before 2028, at least -- and it concludes with the ACC tonight. No. 19 SMU visits unranked Florida State and hugely embattled coach Mike Norvell. It's a 7:30 ET kick on ESPN.
Via DraftKings betting splits, the Mustangs are -3 are taking about 75% of handle and tickets, while Over 53.5 is taking even bigger leans on both. I'm not sure I agree with those leans when looking at the weather in Tallahassee: Partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms during the evening. Low 73F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 50%. It's supposed to rain some in the afternoon, as well, so field conditions might be an issue. Bet on college football at DraftKings, where new users get $200 when they spend $5+:
You can try college football betting on the best sports betting apps, and you need to check out the SportsLine Projection Model for picks on games from both the simulations and our experts. We have a strong play here for those who want to get into parlay betting for SMU vs. FSU.
SMU-Florida State same-game parlay
- Seminoles alt +8.5
- Alt Under 61.5
DrafKings price: +102 (subject to change)
Pick your sportsbook/site, but Norvell is the clear betting favorite to be the first power conference head coach fired this season, and he should be. Norvell appeared to have FSU headed back to national powerhouse status in 2023. But when star quarterback Jordan Travis broke his leg in that year's ACC Championship Game win over Louisville -- and the Noles were left out of the College Football Playoff despite being unbeaten -- well, it has all gone completely downhill since.
Including an embarrassing 63-3 loss to Georgia in that season's Orange Bowl, the Seminoles are 7-18 overall in 25 games since, with just three ACC victories. FSU isn't like an Ohio State or Texas just swimming in money in the athletic department. In fact, it's quite the opposite. Long story short, Norvell likely would have been fired after last season if not for a monstrous buyout that would have cost the school about $72 million to fire him and his staff.
The good news is that Florida State won its 2026 opener, though it didn't look that great in doing so. The Seminoles took a 34-17 home win over New Mexico State in Week 0, not coming close to covering the 31.5-point number. Auburn transfer quarterback Ashton Daniels improved to 6-18 in his starting career by completing 17 of 27 for 202 yards with a TD and pick while rushing for a score in his Florida State debut. Running back Samuel Singleton Jr. was named ACC Receiver of the Week with 164 all-purpose yards and two total touchdowns.
If this comes down to a field goal for the Seminoles to win, I'll be live betting Yes. Kicker Gabe Panikowski converted both field goal attempts vs. New Mexico State and is now 17-for-17 career at the NCAA level. He was the Fred Haskins Award winner as the best non-FBS kicker in 2024, when he made all 15 field goal attempts at Idaho State, but didn't appear in a game last season for Oklahoma State.
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While Florida State likely isn't an ACC contender, SMU is and it's priced as the +640 second-favorite to win it a second time in three seasons. Only Miami (-175) has shorter odds, and I expect those two in the league title game, especially since they won't meet in the regular season.
The Mustangs have taken to the ACC well, going 14-2 in league play since joining in 2024 – tied for the fourth-best conference record in the FBS over that span -- and they return one of the conference's top quarterbacks in Kevin Jennings. He's +8000 to win the Heisman.
Jennings was runner-up for 2026 ACC Preseason Player of the Year and owns the second-most passing yards (7,709) and fourth-most passing TDs (55) in school history. His 19 career wins were tied for third-most by a returning Power 4 quarterback (Rocco Becht with 26, Noah Fifita with 20) prior to the start of the 2026 campaign.
Coach Rhett Lashlee, already being mentioned as a possible Dabo Swinney replacement at Clemson, landed one of the top running backs in the transfer portal in Kendrick Raphael, who led Cal in rushing yards (943) and rush scores (13) last year. The defense was a problem at times last year, allowing the second-most passing yards (283.2) per game in FBS.
SMU beat Florida State 42-16 in 2024 in the only previous meeting between the schools, with Jennings throwing for three scores in Dallas. The Mustangs weren't ranked then, but FSU is 1-5 SU in its past six vs. ranked foes with that lone win in the 2025 opener at home vs. Alabama. The Noles are 1-5 ATS in their past six as dogs overall, but the Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their past five September road games.
The SportsLine Projection Model has FSU winning by a point in a fairly low-scoring game, and the weather might keep the points in check some. I wanted to get over 8 on Florida State, so I didn't lose on any 2-point conversion nonsense. SMU has won its last seven season openers, the longest since a program-record 15-game stretch from 1972-86. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
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