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Sebastian Fundora vs. Keith Thurman fight predictions, picks and odds for junior middleweight title bout

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Sebastian Fundora vs. Keith Thurman fight predictions, picks and odds for junior middleweight title bout
Sebastian Fundora vs. Keith Thurman fight predictions, picks and odds for junior middleweight title bout By Mar 27, 2026 at 2:59 pm ET • 7 min read fundora-thurman-presser-pbc-g.jpg Getty Images

As Keith Thurman, the 37-year-old former unified welterweight champion, sets to add a second chapter to his memorable career on Saturday in his often-delayed return to the pay-per-view stage in Las Vegas, he took a moment to collect himself. 

Thurman (31-1, 23 KOs), once one of the sport's biggest stars before injuries and repeated layoffs limited him to just four fights over the last nine years, will enter as the betting underdog against nearly 6-foot-6 WBC junior middleweight champion Sebastian Fundora (23-1-1, 15 KOs) in the main event of a Premier Boxing Champions card (8 p.m. ET, Prime Video PPV) inside the MGM Grand Garden Arena. 

"I feel like the last man standing when it comes to my generation," Thurman told CBS Sports on Monday. "A lot of us really aren't around. [Errol] Spence [Jr.] is making a comeback, and Canelo [Alvarez] has been holding it down, but not too many OGs remaining. Everybody is gone; they hung up the gloves. 'Bud' [Terence Crawford] retired last year. I'm starting to feel like the last samurai out here."

In 2017, Thurman was on top of the boxing world following a pair of exciting decision wins (airing live in primetime on CBS) against Shawn Porter and Danny Garcia. In fact, Thurman's unanimous decision win over Robert Guerrero two years earlier served as the main event of the PBC's inaugural card. 

Save for a pair of big-fight comebacks, including a 2022 PPV win over Mario Barrios and Thurman's lone pro defeat against Manny Pacquiao via split decision in 2019, the charismatic boxer/puncher known as "One Time" has left a legacy that still feels incomplete due to countless physical setbacks.

In 2024, Thurman was scheduled to shake a two-year layoff by moving up to 154 pounds to challenge then-unbeaten Tim Tszyu, only to suffer yet another injury that forced him to withdraw from a fight. Fundora, who was set to fight on that undercard, replaced him on late notice to score his first of two dramatic wins over Tszyu

An inevitable Fundora-Thurman clash was booked for October 2025 until a last-minute hand injury to Fundora, 28, caused yet another delay. 

So, despite a receding hairline tipping off his age and the fact that he's giving away advantages of eight inches in height and an astounding 11 inches in reach to the wiry Fundora, Thurman has spent much of fight week attempting to remind skeptics of who he once was and claims still to be.  

"People don't know boxing," Thurman said. "It's a skill-based sport -- my footwork, my reflexes, my ring IQ. Have I ever looked bad? It's like y'all waiting for Floyd [Mayweather] to lose. You are waiting for the day Keith Thurman will look old in the ring. That's what I prevent with my training and my preparation.

"I'm just trying to preserve myself. I might have had injuries, but let's be real: I beat myself up more than these fighters ever could. It's not 'Keith Thurman is a has-been type of fighter who really did have potential at one time but has 4-5 losses.' It has never happened, people."

Thurman shook off the cobwebs in March 2025 by snapping a three-year hiatus with a stoppage of Brock Jarvis in his 154-pound debut in Australia. Outside of that, "One Time" is still relatively unproven within the division, which cannot be said about his opponent, appropriately nicknamed "The Towering Inferno."

Fundora is trained by his father, Freddy, in the same backyard gym at their Coachella, California, home that has produced younger sister Gabriela, an undisputed flyweight champion and one of the pound-for-pound best in women's boxing. Fundora's own evolution took time as he transitioned from curious attraction to an exciting brawler who got up off the canvas to finish Erickson Lubin in 2022's fight of the year. That came before a humbling knockout loss to Brian Mendoza the following year, a result that created the need for change. 

Slowly but surely, Fundora stopped giving away his size advantage by trading on the inside and began to work behind his long jab more. Last July, in his rematch with Tszyu, Fundora looked like an absolute destroyer as he sat down on his punches from long range and battered the Australian star until he asked out of the fight in Round 7. 

"I think it's just maturity. We are getting older," Fundora told CBS Sports. "[We are learning] what to do and when to do it. If [Thurman] wants to move around, of course, we have to look for him. If he wants to trade, we are all for that, too. I want to get rid of him; that's what I want to do."

Even though Fundora's skillset and ring IQ have grown considerably, that doesn't mean he still isn't willing to brawl should his opponent force him into it, which can be just as big a blessing as it is a curse. 

"I don't think it's a problem. I think i need that," Fundora said. "This is a tough man's sport. You have to dig deep. That's always going to be inside me. [You have to] show everyone you can handle anything."

Fundora's love for exchanging creates openings, however, which is the basis on which Thurman believes he can overcome the size and youth disadvantages he will face. 

Thurman can't resist an opportunity to remind both Fundora and the boxing public of Mendoza's 2023 upset knockout. And even though Thurman's 2025 stoppage of Jarvis was the first time an opponent failed to go the distance against him since 2015, the St. Petersburg, Florida, resident believes his one-shot power will be the key to taming the beast across from him. 

"The real key [to victory] can be summarized nicely, as in capitalizing on his mistakes," Thurman said. "That's the real key. Then, obviously, just getting past that long jab and getting into my range so my punches can be felt. It doesn't matter how hard you hit because you ain't going to hit me. I'm going to have to just be able to get in to where I need to be to land a critical blow.

"There are two types of Fundora. The one before he got KO'd by Mendoza and the guy after. You can't call him the same fighter. He had a lot of time off after his first loss to reflect. He is using his reach advantage more often. It's not that he won't exchange, he's just doing it a lot less than he was before he got hit with an equalizer shot that put him on the canvas."

Fundora has done a great job blocking out the distraction of Thurman's trash talk by repeating a phrase he debuted ahead of the Tszyu rematch: "Silence is violence." And while he's training for the best possible version of Thurman, Fundora realizes the true key to victory is mastering himself.

"It's just keeping my mind on the plan," Fundora said. "Last couple fights have been focused on keeping everything serene and relaxed. You have it under control, and as long as you keep that, the fight is yours."

Fundora vs. Thurman fight card

Odds via DraftKings

  • Sebastian Fundora (c) -380 vs. Keith Thurman +280, WBC junior middleweight title
  • Yoenis Tellez -350 vs. Brian Mendoza +260, junior middleweights
  • Yoenli Hernandez -1600 vs. Terrell Gausha +800, middleweights
  • Gurgen Hovhannisyan -700 vs. Cesar Navarro +450, heavyweights
  • Elijah Garcia -370 vs. Kevin Newman II +275, 172-pound catchweight
  • Brayan Gonzalez -1400 vs. Brandon Medina +750, featherweights
  • Kaipo Gallegos -1200 vs. Julian Gonzalez +650, lightweights

Fundora vs. Thurman prediction

Even at 37, Thurman's foot speed remains solid, and for whatever he lacks in terms of recent in-ring work, he makes up for it with experience and advantages over Fundora when it comes to the pure fundamentals of boxing. Thurman has also preserved himself well during his time off, not taken much damage overall inside the ring. 

Those attributes could be enough for Thurman to avoid the same result that faced Tszyu, who lacks consistent head movement, in his Fundora rematch. It might also be enough to help Thurman go the distance against Fundora, gaining advantages by frustrating his younger, less-hardened opponent. 

But the simple math of the pronounced size difference between the two fighters, especially if Fundora retains his poise and works from distance, combined with Fundora's youth, feels like too much for Thurman to overcome. 

Fundora is a lot smarter and more capable offensively than most believe. His willingness to battle through tough moments physically inside the ring remains more of a plus than a hindrance. Look for Fundora to package at least a pair of knockdowns to take a clear but competitive decision. Pick: Fundora retains via unanimous decision

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Originally reported by CBS Sports