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Democratic state auditor Rob Sand is leading Republican businessman Zach Lahn in the Iowa governor’s race, according to a new poll, while Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek trails Trump-backed Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) in the Senate race.
A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey found 48 percent of Iowa voters were behind Sand, ahead of Lahn’s 43 percent in the gubernatorial race to replace retiring Gov. Kim Reynolds (R). Another 2 percent picked someone else, and 7 percent were undecided.
In the race for retiring Sen. Joni Ernst’s (R) seat in the Senate, Hinson was ahead with 48 percent against Turek’s 45 percent, with 6 percent undecided.
“Driving Democratic competition in the Iowa general election are independent voters, who break for Sand by a 26-point margin, 58% to 32%, and Turek by an 11-point margin, 49% to 38%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Sand performs better among these swing voters, who broke for Trump in 2024 by about 17 points in Emerson’s final poll. About 1 in 10 Trump voters indicate they would support Sand.”
Sand, the only Democrat currently holding statewide office in the red stronghold, also had the highest favorable rating among the candidates in both the governor’s and Senate races, with 51 percent. Hisnson had a 44 percent favorable rating, followed by Turek at 42 percent and Lahn at 36 percent.
President Trump, who had backed Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) over Lahn in the Republican primary, held a 43 percent job approval rating in the new polling, underwater by 8 points, with a 51 percent disapproval rating.
Feenstra’s loss broke a winning streak for the president, whose endorsees have toppled the political careers of several detractors in primaries across the country this cycle. Trump backed Feenstra just days before the election, while Lahn was supported by Turning Point Action and former Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa).
In the Democratic primary for Senate, Turek handily defeated progressive state Sen. Zach Wahls, offering a win for Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer in what came to be seen as a proxy fight for the party’s direction.
Cook Political Report rates the governor’s race as a “toss up” and the Senate race as “lean Republican,” after shifting the latter toward Democrats following Turek’s win in June.
Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) rates the Senate race as a “toss up,” with Hinson narrowly favored to best Turek.
The poll was conducted Aug. 2-4 among 712 likely voters and has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, of plus or minus 3.7 percent.
Add as preferred source on Google Tags Ashley Hinson Ashley Hinson Donald Trump Iowa gubernatorial race Iowa Senate race Josh Turek Rob Sand Rob Sand Zach LahnCopyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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