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Election handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball on Tuesday shifted the Kansas Senate race from safe Republican to likely Republican following the Rev. Adam Hamilton’s Democratic primary win.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball said a Hamilton win is a “long shot” but highlighted his $3.09 million fundraising advantage over incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) last quarter as a growing sign of the competitive edge built by Democrats.
Hamilton, a pastor, founded one of the largest United Methodist churches in the U.S., giving him a big audience to capitalize upon in the November general election.
His position could give him “some credibility with voters who might not otherwise consider a Democrat in what is a consistently but not overwhelmingly red state,” according to the Sabato Crystal Ball forecast.
However, poll watchers say his win won’t come easily, noting that the last Democratic Senate win in the Sunflower State came nearly a century ago, in 1932, during former President Franklin Roosevelt’s first election.
Still, President Trump’s hold on the state is clear; he won Kansas by about 15 points in both 2020 and 2024.
“To win in the fall Hamilton would have to beat history. Last KS Dem was elected to Senate in 1932–and didn’t get a 2nd term. Longest losing streak for either party in any state,” Larry Sabato wrote in a Tuesday post on X.
When asked if Hamilton’s pastorship could make up the difference mounded by decades of losses, Sabato wrote, “Maybe a point or two. Voting habits are hard to break.”
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