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Presumptive Republican nominee, former Rep. Mike Rogers (Mich.), comfortably leads progressive Abdul El-Sayed and is neck-in-neck with Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) in new polling just one week out from the Michigan Senate primary.
A Michigan Education survey, which was conducted by The Glengariff Group and commissioned for Michigan Education Association and Business Leaders for Michigan, shows Rogers beating El-Sayed by 10 points in a hypothetical matchup. Eleven precent of respondents were undecided.
Stevens barely edges out Rogers in a head-to-head, with the congresswoman receiving close to 46 percent and the Michigan Republican notching 45 percent support. A separate 9 percent were undecided.
Given the polling falls within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 points, Stevens and Rogers are essentially tied in the hypothetical Senate race.
The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report rates the open Michigan Senate race as a “toss up,” and Republicans are looking to flip the seat left open by retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D)
El-Sayed and Stavens have been locked in a bitter battle for the Democratic Senate nomination to take on Rogers, who faces no primary challengers, in November. The primary is Tuesday.
The Glengariff Group noted in their survey that Stevens and Rogers receive nearly identical support among independents voters — with about 40 percent and 39 percent, respectively. But the pollster noted that Rogers holds a hefty nearly 28-point lead over El-Sayed among independents.
Stevens also holds a 31-point lead over Black voters against El-Sayed.
Recent polling has shown Stevens gaining ground against the former Wayne County health director, though some Democratic-aligned polls show El-Sayed still performing better.
Several prominent Democrats — most recently Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) — have issued endorsements for Stevens. Many party leaders see Stevens, a centrist, as the more electable candidate compared to El-Sayed, who is backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).
Rogers narrowly lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) in 2024, and Democrats are concerned that a weak candidate in the primary could pose problems at the ballot box. The latest polling is likely to put pressure on the party to further coalesce around the congresswoman.
Stevens and El-Sayed faced off in their second one-on-one debate Monday evening, hitting each other with familiar attacks on corporate influence and support for Israel.
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