Get caught up with Renegade's past performances, jockey, trainer and full analysis heading into the Run for the Roses
By Gene Menez Apr 27, 2026 at 2:57 pm ET • 3 min read 
USATSI As far as sports curses go, the Curse of Mike Repole pales in comparison to the Curse of the Bambino and the Curse of the Billy Goat, but Repole has had more than his fair share of Kentucky Derby disappointments. The outspoken owner is 0-for-8 in the Run for the Roses, and that does not include the three horses who were scratched from the race, including would-be favorites Uncle Mo and Forte. This year, Repole has a big chance to reverse the curse in late-running Arkansas Derby winner and morning-line Kentucky Derby favorite Renegade. Bet Renegade and the entire Kentucky Derby at TwinSpires, where new users who click through our links get a supersized $400 sign-up bonus:
1 Renegade (4-1)
- Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
- Last race: First in the Arkansas Derby by 4 lengths
- Career record: 5 starts: 2 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third
- Career earnings: $1,031,500
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure: 98 (Arkansas Derby)
- Sire: Into Mischief
Below, we'll dig further into Renegade as part of our series profiling all the horses competing in the 152nd Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 2. We'll look back into his past performances, what questions need to be answered Saturday and analyze how the post draw affects his chances.
Now that you know who's in the field, you'll want to know how to bet the Kentucky Derby on the top horse racing betting apps. FanDuel Racing offers a $25 bonus with a $5 bet. Claim it here:
What to know about Renegade
Moments after Renegade powerfully crossed the finish line in the Arkansas Derby, horse racing Twitter had crowned him the Kentucky Derby favorite.
It was easy to see why. Despite running last of eight early and behind slow half-mile fractions, Renegade rallied four-wide and then unleashed a powerful kick down the lane to win by four widening lengths. He completed the final furlong like a tremendous machine, clocking in at 11.84 seconds. And even if you take into account that the stretch at Oaklawn Park is slightly downhill, that is still a rare late kick that suggests that stretching out to the Kentucky Derby distance of 1¼ miles will be right in his wheelhouse.
Renegade backers have to like that he comes with that late kick in every race. In each of his last four starts, he has passed horses in the lane.
And though his career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 98 is well shy of Further Ado's (106) and a tick below the rest of the best in the Kentucky Derby field, Beyers for closers can be difficult to make since they are at the mercy of the pace up front. Meanwhile Thoro-graph figures say Renegade is one of the fastest in the field and poised to move forward once again on Saturday.
He is not without flaws, however. First, as a late-running closer, he is at the mercy of a fair pace and a clean trip, which are far from guaranteed in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby. Also, trainer Todd Pletcher's Derby record is notoriously poor: two wins from 65 starters, and those two victories came on sloppy tracks. His horses historically have been great at getting to Louisville but struggle once in Louisville.
Even jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., who has won the Eclipse Award as the nation's Most Outstanding Jockey five times, has not had success in the race. In nine Derby mounts, his best finish is fourth (Improbable in 2019). Ortiz had the opportunity to ride trainer Brad Cox's three contenders—Commandment, Further Ado and Fulleffort—in the Derby but stuck with Renegade and Pletcher, his longtime compadre.
After Renegade drew the No. 1 post and other horses received buzz after dazzling morning workouts at Churchill Downs, Renegade's odds could rise at FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET. That could make this wicked late runner a potential overlay come Saturday. Claim our jumbo-sized 1/ST BET offer here to get a $500 sign-up bonus:
Post draw analysis
The biggest news from the post draw was that Renegade was assigned the No. 1 post position. No horse has won from the rail since Ferdinand in 1986. But many of the bad trips from the No. 1 hole came with the old starting gate, which was retired in 2019. The new starting gate leaves much more room to the rail than the old gate did. And maybe more importantly, Renegade is a closer who drops to near the back of the pack regardless of post position. The rail draw may actually give the horse and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. a chance to save ground around the first turn. Renegade backers may actually get a better price on Saturday because of the misguided No. 1 post narrative.
Join the Conversation comments
