One of the most shocking winless streaks in MLB for a star pitcher this decade is on the line tonight when the Pirates host the Reds in a series opener with a 6:40 ET first pitch. Pittsburgh's Paul Skenes, once the clear favorite to repeat as the NL Cy Young Award winner, eyes his first victory since May 12 (seven straight starts), and I think has a great chance of getting it because of the opponent. The Bucs haven't won one of his outings since then, either.
Reds vs. Pirates MLB same-game parlay
- Pirates money line
- Under 1.5 first-inning runs
DraftKings SGP price: -125
Last year, Skenes had an eight-game winless run from June 3-July 21 and obviously that didn't end up costing him the Cy Young when he also won just 10 games with all of his other numbers off the charts. Pittsburgh won four times in that span to help Skenes avoided personal losses (he also got one no-decision) as that might have cost him the award.
What is so strange about this streak is that the Pirates have lost all seven with Skenes (6-7, 2.86 ERA) taking the personal L in five. His last win was May 12 vs. Colorado when Skenes took a no-hitter into the seventh and finished with eight scoreless innins. He was the Cy Young favorite then but is now down at +1400.
And it's not as if the big righty is pitching poorly of late with three straight quality starts, but he's gotten little run support. In fact, the Bucs have been held to two runs or fewer in five of Skenes' last seven with a total of 19 scored in them. Skenes is averaging 97 mph on his fastball compared to 98.8 as a rookie and 98.2 last year but has struck out 30.1% of the batters he's faced in 2026 compared to 29.5% in '25.
"I don't think I'm necessarily the same pitcher I was my rookie year and last year," Skenes said. "I do think I'm throwing better. I'm very happy with how I've been throwing. I think I've evolved. If you're not getting better in this game, you're getting worse. I feel I'm better than I was last year. I think there are some numbers that show that; others don't. But the gut feeling is I'm better."
Bet on MLB at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonus bets after placing a first wager:
Skenes is now among the least-profitable pitchers in the majors as bettors would be down $618 they wagered on Pittsburgh to win each of his 16 starts. The team is letting him pitch deep, though, with five straight outings of at least 103 pitches.
So, while I have spent most of this story worrying about Skenes, I do think all might be right tonight because he's facing a "horse for the course," so to speak, in the Reds. His first win of 2026 came against them with five strong innings on April 1 and Skenes is 5-0 with a 0.63 ERA in six career starts vs. Cincinnati and 45 strikeouts in 34.0 innings.
All active Reds with a career at-bat off Skenes are batting a combined .217 with a .515 OPS, 30 strikeouts and zero homers in 69 at-bats. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Skenes at 5.6 innings, 6.7 strikeouts, 4.0 hits allowed and 1.5 earned runs. At DraftKings, he is -115 to earn a win (I worry about his bullpen) and is set at over/under 8.5 strikeouts.
Cincinnati counters with lefty Andrew Abbott (5-4, 3.83 ERA). Abbott is a solid pitcher who has given up three runs or fewer in 10 straight trips, so this is hardly a lock for Pittsburgh. The Bucs did hit him around in an April 1 road victory. Abbott gets even worse run support than Skenes this season at 3.50 per game.
Tail Matt Severance's parlay at FanDuel, where new users can get $350 in bonus bets:
I have had a few bad breaks in No Runs First Inning this week so I'm not messing around and will punch that up to Under 1.5. Basically, that's my attachment to get the Pirates money line way down. I think Skenes should mega-focused tonight unless he's secretly hurt. His velocity drop is concerning.
Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
Add CBS Sports on Google Join the Conversation comments
