Red Sox vs. Tigers prediction, odds, line, time: 2026 MLB picks for May 4 from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox 10,000 times and revealed its MLB picks for Monday's matchup

The Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers begin a three-game series on Monday, and the teams are heading in opposite directions. Boston (13-21) has lost five of six, averaging just 1.6 runs per game during the slump. Detroit (18-17), meanwhile, has won four of five, with a pitching staff that's given up 1-2 runs in three of four. Left-handers face off on Monday, as Payton Tolle (0-1, 3.38 ERA) goes for the Sox, while the Tigers counter with two-time defending AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal (3-2, 2.70). 

First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET from Comerica Park in Detroit. The latest Tigers vs. Red Sox odds list Detroit as the -204 favorite on the money line (risk $204 to win $100), with host Boston priced at +169( risk $100 to win $169). The over/under for total runs is 7. Before making any Red Sox vs. Tigers picks, be sure to see the Tigers vs. Red Sox predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and is coming off a 5-0 week on top-rated MLB picks. It also excelled at making home run prop picks in 2025, returning nearly 30 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Red Sox vs. Tigers and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Tigers vs. Red Sox:

Red Sox vs. Tigers money line

Tigers -204, Red Sox +169

Red Sox vs. Tigers over/under

7 runs

Red Sox vs. Tigers run line 

Tigers -1.5 (+110)

Red Sox vs. Tigers picks

Red Sox vs. Tigers streaming 

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Top Red Sox vs. Tigers predictions 

After 10,000 simulations of Red Sox vs. Tigers, the model is going Over 7 combined runs. For over/under betting, the Over has hit just once in the Tigers' last six games, and one in six for the Red Sox as well. With Skubal going for Detroit, would could surmise runs will be at a premium again here. But this is tied for the lowest total either team has seen in a game. So far, the Over is 3-1 (75%) in those games. 

SportsLine's model also projects 2.0 total bases or more for Red Sox catcher Willson Contreras, and 1.5 total bases for five Tigers players, including Jahmal Jones (1.78) and Dillon Dingler (1.74). The model projects 8.9 combined runs as the Over hits in 61% of simulations. Get the Red Sox vs. Tigers money-line pick at SportsLine. 

How to make Red Sox vs. Tigers picks

After simulating every pitch of Red Sox vs. Tigers 10,000 times, the model also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can get that pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Tigers vs. Red Sox, and which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.