Red Sox vs. Tigers prediction, odds: 2026 MLB picks for Patriots Day' game from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox 10,000 times and revealed its MLB picks for the annual Patriots' Day matchup

The Detroit Tigers look to win their wrap-around four-game series against the Boston Red Sox when they meet in the 2026 Patriots' Day matchup on Monday morning. Detroit is coming off a 6-2 win over Boston on Sunday. The Tigers (12-10), who have won two in a row, are 4-9 on the road this season. The Red Sox (8-13), who have lost two in a row, are 4-5 on their home field.

First pitch from Fenway Park in Boston is set for 11:10 a.m. ET. Boston is a -139 favorite on the money line (risk $139 to win $100) in the latest Tigers vs. Red Sox odds, while the over/under, is 8. Before making any Tigers vs. Red Sox picks, be sure to see the Tigers vs. Red Sox predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model. 

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It was a profitable 35-29 on top-rated MLB money-line picks last season. It also excelled making home run prop picks in 2025, returning nearly 30 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.    

Now, the model has set its sights on Tigers vs. Red Sox and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Red Sox vs. Tigers:

Tigers vs. Red Sox money line

Red Sox -139, Tigers +117

Tigers vs. Red Sox over/under

8 runs

Tigers vs. Red Sox run line 

Red Sox -1.5 (+151)

Tigers vs. Red Sox picks

Tigers vs. Red Sox streaming 

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Top Tigers vs. Red Sox predictions 

After 10,000 simulations of Tigers vs. Red Sox, the model is going Over 8 combined runs. For over-under betting, the Over cleared in the last head-to-head matchup, and in five of the last eight Boston games. Detroit has the 12th-best offense in MLB, and has a .243 team batting average. The Red Sox, meanwhile, have the 21st-best pitching staff, compiling a 4.35 ERA.

SportsLine's model projects more than 1.5 total bases for Detroit's Jahmai Jones, Gleyber Torres, Dillon Dingler, Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson. Boston, meanwhile, is projected to get over 1.4 total bases from Roman Anthony, Willson Contreras, Trevor Story and Ceddanne Rafaela. The model projects 9.3 combined runs, giving value to the Over. Get the Tigers vs. Red Sox money-line pick at SportsLine.

How to make Red Sox vs. Tigers picks

After simulating every pitch of Red Sox vs. Tigers 10,000 times, the model also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can get that pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Tigers vs. Red Sox, and which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.