The blockbuster trade between the Giants and Bengals kicked off draft-week chaos
By Tyler Sullivan Apr 20, 2026 at 10:50 am ET • 6 min read 
Getty Images Ladies and gentlemen, we made it! We reached the week of the 2026 NFL Draft, so get ready to recycle every one of your mock drafts, rip them to pieces, and use them as confetti to celebrate. After months of analysis, speculation and an onslaught of mocks, it all gets real on Thursday night for Round 1 in Pittsburgh. And it's off to the races from there.
Already, fireworks kicked off the festivities, including when the Giants and Bengals struck a blockbuster trade that has star defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence heading to Cincinnati in exchange for the No. 10 overall pick. More chaos could be on the horizon, so let's take this time before the madness truly kicks off and take a look at some pre-draft overreactions.
Which overreactions are mere fodder and which should we take seriously? Let's discuss.
The 2026 class is not a strong one
Overreactions or reality: Reality
The 2026 NFL Draft has a few things working against it. First off, the talent pool isn't as stocked as prior years, especially at quarterback. While Fernando Mendoza is slated to be the No. 1 overall pick, some of that is due to circumstance. For instance, various evaluators noted throughout the pre-draft process that the Indiana QB would've been QB4 in the 2024 class behind the likes of Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye, but above Bo Nix. That's not to say that Mendoza won't make an impact once he gets to the league (I believe he will), but it simply highlights the lower ceiling this entire class is projected to have. Sticking with quarterbacks, there is no other signal caller truly in the conversation to go inside the top-five, which puts a dent into the hype. At other positions, there isn't generational talent at either prime/sexy positions outside of Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love.
The other thing that hurts this draft is that the 2027 class is projected to be loaded with the type of league-altering talent that the 2026 class is lacking. Next year, the likes of Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith, Texas Exge rusher Colin Simmons and LSU offensive tackle Jordan Seaton are set to enter the fray, as are a slew of quarterback headlined by Oregon's Dante Moore and Texas' Arch Manning.
Again, this isn't to say that there won't be game-changers, but those who evaluate these classes from year to year are almost universally underwhelmed by what this group has to offer compared to years previous.
NFL insider 2026 mock draft: What we're hearing around the league Jonathan Jones
There will be multiple trades in Round 1
Overreactions or reality: Overreaction
Kansas City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach said recently that he anticipates there to be a lot of activity on the trade market in the opening round of the NFL Draft. I'm not as confident.
Already, a handful of trades impacted the first round, including one from Veach himself, trading corner Trent McDuffie to the Rams for No. 29. On top of that, the Broncos traded No. 30 overall to the Dolphins for wideout Jaylen Waddle, while the Giants just shipped Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals for No. 10 overall. That's some substantial movement, but I think it undercuts the level of action we'll see on draft night.
As I highlighted above, this class isn't regarded as highly as others by NFL evaluators. In these types of drafts, you oftentimes see teams willing to pick up the phone and field offers to move down, but who is trading up? It takes two to tango, and I'm not sure the market of teams eager to catapult up the board will be robust enough for multiple deals to come across the wire.
Fernando Mendoza will change the fortunes of the Raiders
Overreactions or reality: Reality
Fernando Mendoza IND • QB • #15 View Profile Sure, some evaluators don't see Mendoza as a slam-dunk No. 1 overall pick if he were in another class, but that doesn't mean that he can't/won't be a top-tier quarterback once he enters the NFL. Listen, we all know that where you get drafted is even more important than when you get drafted, especially when it comes to the quarterback position. They can get the fanfare of being the No. 1 overall pick, but if the organization they are going to doesn't have the right structure to cultivate his development, he has an uphill climb towards truly making an impact.
As it relates to Mendoza, he finds himself in a pretty strong situation with Las Vegas. The Raiders spent the past few drafts building around the quarterback position and have a couple of high-caliber skill position players that'll soon be at Mendoza's disposal in running back Ashton Jeanty and tight end Brock Bowers. In preparation for picking Mendoza, the Raiders also cannon-balled into free agency and made Tyler Linderbaum the highest-paid center in the NFL, ensuring their new quarterback will have top protection. Pair that with the arrival of offensive guru Klint Kubiak as head coach, and this is an attractive spot for a young player.
With that structure in place, Mendoza's talent and "it" factor should flourish, and have the Raiders clawing out of the NFL basement in short order.
Ty Simpson will fall out of the first round
Overreactions or reality: Overreaction
Ty Simpson BAMA • QB • #15 View Profile Ty Simpson is one of the more polarizing prospects in this year's class. The Alabama product has plenty of ability, but played just one season as the full-time starter for the Crimson Tide. That lack of a larger sample size for Simpson, along with his play petering out down the stretch last year (in part due to injury), has created a massive range for where he could end up. Some of our experts have him hearing his name called in Round 1, while others have him waiting to come off the board on Day 2. I think the end result will be the former rather than the latter.
When it comes to quarterbacks, it's always smart to round up, meaning that you should expect them to go a little higher than you anticipate. It's just the nature of the position and how valuable it is. Teams are desperate to find a quarterback, and 2026 could see some QB-needy teams get desperate, which should help Simpson be a first-rounder. In the second half of the first round, the Pittsburgh Steelers make sense as a possible destination at No. 21 overall, especially with Aaron Rodgers' status still up in the air. There's also the possibility of a team trading back into the first round to secure Simpson, similar to the scenario the New York Giants operated last year when they moved up to take quarterback Jaxson Dart. If we were to peg one team to do that, it'd be the Arizona Cardinals, who have the No. 34 overall pick as the necessary ammunition to move up.
No matter how it happens, there are enough plausible scenarios in the back half of the first round where Simpson shouldn't slip to Day 2.
Jordyn Tyson will be the best WR from the '26 class
Overreactions or reality: Reality
Jordyn Tyson ARIZST • WR View Profile The wide receiver position is fascinating in this draft. There are a lot of prospects that could go in the first round, and the opinions of them vary depending on who you talk to. However, when it comes to Arizona State's Jordyn Tyson, the majority of people will say that he's probably the most talented of the bunch. The sticking point with him is durability. Tyson has endured several injuries throughout his collegiate experience, ranging from a knee injury in 2022 to hamstring strains in both legs last season. While that's definitely a red flag and something teams should factor in, they also shouldn't overthink it too much, either. If the talent indicates that he's head and shoulders better than the rest, it's worth the roll of the dice to take him.
If Tyson falls a bit further than his talent indicates, it wouldn't surprise me that in a few years we'll be looking back with him as the top wideout from his class and say that he should've heard his name called first at the position.
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