The first game of a full Wednesday of MLB action has a first pitch of 1:10 p.m. ET from Comerica Park and holds some American League playoff ramifications as the Tampa Bay Rays conclude a series in Detroit. It's their last meeting of the season unless the Tigers can sneak into the AL playoff field. Bet $5+ and get $200 in bonus bets when you bet on baseball at DraftKings:
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There is no question that the Junior Circuit is wide open this season, with no truly great team, and the AL East-leading Rays have a clear path to home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and a trip to the franchise's third all-time World Series. Tampa Bay holds a 3.5-game lead over the New York Yankees for the East lead, as well as the best record in the AL. With Aaron Judge's return still up in the air, I don't see New York catching Tampa Bay.
In a push to win the franchise's first World Series, the Rays looked at trading for two-time AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal from Detroit but opted not to beat the offer made by the Dodgers and opted for New York Mets righty Freddy Peralta (5-11, 5.33 ERA). He had been a massive disappointment with New York, but the Rays believe they are "Pitching Whisperers" and can fix anyone. And they are often right.
But it hasn't worked yet for the disappointing Peralta, who is 0-2 with a 7.17 ERA in four starts with his new team with batters hitting .288 off him. That's worse than he was with the Mets, who gave up a lot more in prospect talent to get Peralta last offseason from Milwaukee than they got from Tampa Bay for him at this year's trade deadline. The Rays believe he is pitching better, however, with mechanical adjustments increasing his extension and raising his release point.
"I've never been in a situation like this before," he said of the in-season trade. "It was a little bit of both. Mentally, I was a little down, because I knew the situation that I am going to free agency. I know I wanted to compete. I was competing all the time on the mound, but it wasn't the results that I wanted to be.
"Physically, I knew that something was wrong, because I saw the numbers and all that. But probably as soon as I got here, mentally I got better and everything went (well) after that."
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Rays-Tigers MLB same-game parlay
- Detroit +1.5
- Under 1.5 first-inning runs
- Alt Under 9.5
DraftKings SGP price: +127 (subject to change)
So far, Peralta is costing himself millions of dollars as an upcoming unrestricted free agent, and it's not like his four starts with Tampa Bay have come against top offensive teams: Baltimore (twice), the Athletics and Colorado.
Not sure what happened to the 30-year-old who in 2025 earned his second All-Star selection and finished fifth in the NL Cy Young voting while leading the NL with 17 victories. He had a third straight season of at least 30 starts and at least 200 strikeouts. Now he's probably not even guaranteed a spot in Tampa Bay's playoff rotation behind Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Nick Martinez.
Back on May 12 with the Mets in Queens, Peralta pitched one of his best games of the year with two runs allowed over six in a win against Detroit. He gave up a leadoff homer to Dillon Dingler in the second and a sacrifice fly to Spencer Torkelson later in the inning before settling down. The SportsLine Projection Model has him at 5.5 innings pitched, 5.5 strikeouts, 4.7 hits allowed and 2.3 earned runs. The Rays are off Thursday, so they can use the bullpen liberally today if need be.
Detroit needs a minor miracle to reach the playoffs, and probably for manager AJ Hinch to keep his job. The team has largely flat-lined since management gave up and traded top starting pitchers Skubal and Casey Mize at the deadline.
One major bright spot this year has been righty Troy Melton (7-2, 1.60 ERA), who goes tonight. He took a loss for the first time since June 25 last Friday in Kansas City, surrendering two earned over 5.2 innings. Melton has allowed more than two earned just once in his 15 starts and has been worth $553 if you had wagered Detroit to win each of those (11-4).
The 25-year-old's longest career outing in the majors was June 3 at Tampa Bay, when Melton allowed two runs and four hits over eight innings of a victory. That was only Melton's third start of 2026 after he started the year on the 60-day disabled list with right elbow inflammation, and he retired the final 17 batters. The model has him at 5.6 innings, 4.7 strikeouts, 5.3 hits allowed and 2.4 earned runs.
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It doesn't look like great hitting weather at Comerica Park, with overcast skies, highs in the mid-70s and winds somewhat blowing sideways at 13 mph. The first two games of the series have seen only five total runs scored in each. The model has Tigers by a score of 4.4-4.3 so we'd win as long as not more than one of of those 8.7 total runs is scored in the first inning. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
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