Neil PaineApr 20, 2026, 07:30 AM ETClose- Neil Paine writes about sports using data and analytics. Previously, he was Sports Editor at FiveThirtyEight.
The 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs are underway, and with them will come one of the most fascinating postseasons in recent years. With the old order fading -- the two-time defending Cup champ (and three-time East champ) Florida Panthers missed the field entirely -- and no obvious successor in place, the race for the Cup feels as open, and as consequential, as it has in years.
To help sort out which players might step up and make this postseason their own, let's consult the Goals Above Replacement (GAR) rankings -- my version of "all-in-one" metrics like Hockey-Reference's Point Shares. The core philosophy of GAR is to quantify a player's total contribution (across offense, defense and goaltending) relative to a replacement-level player at the same position. To ensure the metric reflects reality, it also balances total leaguewide value by position: 60% for forwards, 30% for defensemen and 10% for goaltenders.
This year's GAR leader was, unsurprisingly, Colorado's Nathan MacKinnon. But not every player played exactly to their talent level the way he did this season. To account for a longer view of performance track records, I'm ranking players according to their Established Level -- a weighted three-year average inspired by Bill James. (Specifically, we assign a weight of 3 to 2025-26, 2 to 2024-25 and 1 to 2023-24, then divide by 6 to get each player's overall average.) This gives more credit to recent dominance while also rewarding sustained excellence over time. To prevent the metric from lagging behind the league's newest stars, we also apply a value floor: no player's Established Level can be lower than 75% of their 2025-26 GAR.
With all of that housekeeping out of the way, here's our ranking of the skaters and goaltenders in the 2026 playoff field who are most capable of defining the next two months of hockey:
GAR: 2025-26: 32.0 | 2024-25: 24.2 | 2023-24: 31.0 Three-year avg.: O: 23.0 | D: 6.3 | G: 0.0 | Total: 29.2
MacKinnon is the favorite to win his second Hart Trophy in three years, though the real prize he and the Avalanche have in mind is the Stanley Cup, having won it in 2022. After the best season of his career by GAR, he'll have as good a chance to lead that run as ever.
When MacKinnon is on his game, almost nobody can match his combination of speed and skill; he even returned to his previous levels as a sniper in 2025-26 (career-high 53 Adjusted Goals) after a comparatively down goal-scoring effort a year ago.
Playoff outlook: The Avs are favored to win the Cup, whether we look at the stats or the betting market, and MacKinnon is a huge reason why. He's averaged a point per game or better every trip he's made to the playoffs, and the Avs will be heavily picked to win in Round 1, if not each subsequent series. Another date with Dallas -- always scary -- or Minnesota may loom in Round 2, but Colorado has the firepower to survive. At age 30, MacKinnon is at his peak and the time for another Cup is now.
GAR: 2025-26: 30.2 | 2024-25: 25.9 | 2023-24: 29.9 Three-year avg.: O: 23.8 | D: 4.9 | G: 0.0 | Total: 28.7
Kucherov is an automatic Art Ross Trophy threat whenever healthy, and he almost hunted down Connor McDavid with an incredible 79 points in 41 games since Jan. 1. This season was tied for his second-best single-season mark in Adjusted Goals (43) -- even if it was propped up by a career-high 19% shooting percentage -- and he maintained his unmatched passing ability as well, leading the league in assists for a third straight season. Offensively, there is little Kucherov can't do.
Playoff outlook: The Bolts will face a talented Montreal squad right away in the East bracket, but Kucherov should get plenty of his own numbers against a Habs defense that ranked 16th in goals allowed and 18th on the penalty kill. With Buffalo or Boston lurking next, Tampa Bay may not face a top-10 defense until the conference finals, if they make it that far.
GAR: 2025-26: 29.7 | 2024-25: 20.2 | 2023-24: 27.4 Three-year avg.: O: 21.4 | D: 4.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 26.2
Healthy for an entire season for the first time since 2022-23, McDavid returned to Victory Lane in the NHL's scoring race with 134 points. (He either scored or assisted on 49% of Edmonton's goals this season.) With his combination of speed, scoring ability and vision, McDavid is the long-running gold standard that even talents like MacKinnon and Kucherov measure themselves against.
Playoff outlook: The Oilers are in a bit of a different position than usual, not being favored to win the West despite having done so in each of the past two NHL seasons. That being said, McDavid has piled up basically a full season's worth of points -- 33 goals and 128 points in 75 games --- over the past four postseasons, so it would be silly to count out his ability to carry Edmonton in spite of their No. 26 ranking in goal prevention.
GAR: 2025-26: 22.9 | 2024-25: 30.1 | 2023-24: 22.9 Three-year avg.: O: 17.6 | D: 7.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 25.3
Even though he probably won't win a second straight Norris Trophy (Columbus' Zach Werenski is highly favored) -- and his value numbers regressed exactly to what they were before last year's career-best 30.1 GAR -- Makar continues to be the league's most dynamic offensive defenseman from both a skating and a production standpoint.
The only area where Makar's numbers slipped was in Colorado's possession rate when he was on the ice; the team's share of shot attempts at 5-on-5 was 3.7% lower with Makar in the game versus not.
Playoff outlook: Makar has a Conn Smythe on his resume from that 2022 Cup run, but he's also averaged less than a point per game in two of his past three playoff campaigns. So he's in need of a good postseason, particularly considering Colorado's title aspirations. Up against the Kings in Round 1, Makar's comparison point will be an opposing blue line that ranked just 22nd in GAR and produced very little on offense.
GAR: 2025-26: 27.0 | 2024-25: 19.4 | 2023-24: 24.1 Three-year avg.: O: 15.9 | D: 8.1 | G: 0.0 | Total: 24.0
Bouchard leveled up this season from an elite offensive D-man for the current era to have one of the most productive seasons we've ever seen from the back line. His 90 Adjusted Points were just behind Brian Leetch in 1991-92 for the top-20 ever by a defenseman in a single season, and he narrowly trailed Erik Karlsson, Roman Josi and Makar for the most since Paul Coffey in the mid-'90s.
And for any complaints about Bouchard's all-around game, contrast his effect on the Oilers' puck possession against Makar's number earlier: Edmonton's share of shots at 5-on-5 was 7.8% better with Bouchard on the ice.
Playoff outlook: Like McDavid, Bouchard has been insanely productive in recent postseasons, with 17 goals and 72 points in 59 games over the past three playoffs. Edmonton will be reliant on his booming shot and elite quarterbacking ability to keep their top-ranked power play rolling.
GAR: 2025-26: 21.7 | 2024-25: 27.1 | 2023-24: 23.3 Three-year avg.: O: 19.3 | D: 4.5 | G: 0.0 | Total: 23.7
Rounding out the three-headed monster that powered Edmonton's sixth-ranked offense, Draisaitl missed out on an eighth consecutive season with 100 or more Adjusted Points because of injuries that cost him 17 games -- including the final month of the regular season.
If healthy, Draisaitl is an offensive machine who commands outsized defensive attention because of his quick release and ability to shoot or pass from both the forehand and backhand. With a +5.3% on-ice shot attempt share differential, he continued to drive play at a higher rate than earlier in his career.
Playoff outlook: The biggest postseason question mark for Draisaitl is how soon he can return from his lower-body injury. With apologies to Zach Hyman (who had 9.5 offensive GAR), the Oilers are so dependent on their top trio of McDavid, Bouchard and Draisaitl -- who combined to generate 61.7 of the team's 88.2 offensive GAR -- that any interruption in availability could disrupt the offense (and PP) that must carry their hopes for a third straight West crown.
GAR: 2025-26: 17.2 | 2024-25: 22.2 | 2023-24: 24.9 Three-year avg.: O: 17.5 | D: 2.6 | G: 0.0 | Total: 20.1
The Pasta Man missed games for the first time in a few seasons, and his adjusted production fell from 43 goals and 106 points a year ago to 28 goals and 97 points in 2025-26.
Even so, he hit the unadjusted century mark for scoring and led Boston skaters in GAR as the Bruins returned to the playoffs after a one-season hiatus. One of the game's premier wingers, Pastrnak's continued production was made more impressive when you consider his supporting cast at forward wasn't what it used to be.
Playoff outlook: The Bruins have a bit of a tall order going up against a Buffalo squad that returned to the playoffs with a vengeance, ranking No. 5 in Hockey-Reference's Simple Rating System (SRS) as well as my own Elo ratings. In addition to the goaltending of Jeremy Swayman, Pastrnak's offensive magic is essential for any chance at the upset.
GAR: 2025-26: 19.7 | 2024-25: 28.7 | 2023-24: 2.9 Three-year avg.: O: 0.0 | D: 0.0 | G: 19.9 | Total: 19.9
Like clockwork, Vasilevskiy was once again one of the top netminders in the league, helping Tampa Bay rank No. 3 in fewest goals allowed and No. 8 in save percentage. While he also enjoyed a sturdy D corps in front of him, despite Victor Hedman going on long-term injured reserve, make no mistake: Vasilevskiy is the backbone of the Bolts' rejuvenated Cup hopes.
He's started almost 300 games over the past five seasons and earned a Quality Start designation in nearly two-thirds of them.
Playoff outlook: Simply put, Tampa Bay will go as far as Vasilevskiy takes them. Montreal is a dangerous first-round foe because of their offense, led by Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Lane Hutson -- but nobody feels better about the goaltending they'll counter with than the Lightning, who can send a two-time Cup-winner up against the Habs in net.
GAR: 2025-26: 22.4 | 2024-25: 16.6 | 2023-24: 16.7 Three-year avg.: O: 15.3 | D: 4.2 | G: 0.0 | Total: 19.5
After a couple of years' worth of muted production -- not bad, mind you -- relative to his big 2022-23 breakout, Robertson got back to a more elite statistical level in 2025-26 with 44 Adjusted Goals and 93 Adjusted Points. One of the keys was a return to greater shot volume: He went from averaging 2.57 shots per game last season to a whopping 3.59 this season, his most since posting 3.82 in that stellar 2022-23 campaign.
Robertson is now squarely in his prime at age 26, and he's one of the biggest reasons for Dallas' success at both ends of the ice.
Playoff outlook: The Wild are a very tough opponent for Dallas right out of the gates, so a lot will be asked of Robertson to bolster the Stars' advancement odds. He's never been a gaudy postseason stat-producer -- he has 18 goals and 44 points in 56 career playoff games -- but Robertson will need to drive offense while also staying defensively responsible against a Wild offense led by Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy.
GAR: 2025-26: 23.4 | 2024-25: 16.8 | 2023-24: 9.9 Three-year avg.: O: 14.2 | D: 4.8 | G: 0.0 | Total: 19.0
After years of good but hardly superstar-level output in Carolina, Necas' move to the Avalanche in last year's midseason Mikko Rantanen trade unlocked an entirely new level of production for the Czech forward. This season in particular, Necas absolutely shattered his previous career adjusted-stat highs with 38 goals, 61 assists, 99 points and 23.4 GAR. His speed and puck control allow him to deliver game-changing plays in the blink of an eye.
Playoff outlook: It remains to be seen how much of Necas' glow-up can translate to the playoffs, as the vast majority of his previous postseason track record (just 12 goals and 35 points in 66 games) came before his recent level-up. The first-round opponent Kings will be looking to turn the series into a defensive struggle, not a track meet.
GAR: 2025-26: 15.0 | 2024-25: 20.6 | 2023-24: 26.5 Three-year avg.: O: 13.2 | D: 5.6 | G: 0.0 | Total: 18.8
Between injuries and a big midseason trade, Hughes ended up with one of his worst seasons -- just 15.0 adjusted GAR -- in recent memory, a far cry from the 26.5 he generated in 2023-24. But he did increase his production after leaving a difficult situation in Vancouver for the playoff-bound Wild.
Beyond the big-picture stats, Hughes remains a major difference-maker when it comes to logging huge ice time (27:54 of ice time per game post-trade) and controlling the flow of possession; his teams have always had a significantly higher share of shots when Hughes is on the ice, and Minnesota was no different.
Playoff outlook: The 2025-26 Wild are one of the best and most talented teams in franchise history, and Hughes is a big reason why. They drew a tough first-round matchup versus Dallas, whose own blue-line corps (Miro Heiskanen, Esa Lindell, Thomas Harley) can give Hughes a run for his money. But Minnesota hasn't escaped Round 1 in 11 years, and Hughes is specifically here to stop that streak.
GAR: 2025-26: 19.2 | 2024-25: 20.2 | 2023-24: 13.7 Three-year avg.: O: 13.4 | D: 5.3 | G: 0.0 | Total: 18.6
Eichel's stats were just a little bit off his pace from a year ago, but still, few forwards in the league blend skating and playmaking with his balance and strength on the puck.
One of Eichel's few knocks has been too much unselfishness, but he looked for his own shot more this season (3.51 shots per game versus 3.03 last season) even if his goal total didn't reflect it. Broadly speaking, whatever the problems were that led Vegas to make one of the latest in-season coaching changes ever, Eichel was instead among the team's solutions.
Playoff outlook: Having said that, Eichel had his worst month by points per game (four goals and six assists in 16 games) in March, coinciding with the slide that cost ex-coach Bruce Cassidy his job. Under new head man John Tortorella in April, Eichel had 12 points in seven games, so there's reason to think he can stay hot under new leadership in the playoffs.
GAR: 2025-26: 18.1 | 2024-25: 18.6 | 2023-24: 16.8 Three-year avg.: O: 14.3 | D: 3.8 | G: 0.0 | Total: 18.1
Guentzel turned in roughly a carbon copy of his first season with Tampa Bay, increasing his assists while shooting the same amount (even if his conversion rate -- and power-play scoring -- dipped some). Now far removed from the shadow of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in Pittsburgh, Guentzel is one of the main weapons in the Lightning's fourth-ranked offense.
Playoff outlook: Guentzel has always been a money player in the playoffs, going back to when he led all scorers with 13 goals as a 22-year-old rookie for the Cup-winning 2017 Penguins. Montreal could be the next victim, particularly considering their D corps is depleted with Noah Dobson and Alexandre Carrier on the shelf.
GAR: 2025-26: 20.3 | 2024-25: 17.5 | 2023-24: 11.4 Three-year avg.: O: 13.7 | D: 4.1 | G: 0.0 | Total: 17.9
At age 26, with a 100-point season under his belt -- the first for a Montreal player in four decades, since Mats Näslund in 1985-86 -- Suzuki is no longer the youthful future of the Canadiens: he's the present-day leader.
And while his goal-scoring seems to have plateaued (he's had between 25 and 32 adjusted goals for four years running), his playmaking has taken off recently, with a career-best 70 adjusted assists this season -- and an average yearly gain of 14 helpers per year over the past three years.
Playoff outlook: Tampa Bay is a tough assignment for the Habs in Round 1, even if Montreal has come a long way since losing to the Bolts in the 2021 Stanley Cup Final. But Suzuki can draw upon his experience there; he had seven goals and nine assists in 22 playoff games as a 21-year-old during that run, including a pair of memorable goals.
GAR: 2025-26: 17.9 | 2024-25: 20.0 | 2023-24: 13.4 Three-year avg.: O: 13.3 | D: 4.5 | G: 0.0 | Total: 17.8
Hagel missed double-digit games for the first time in his career as an NHL regular, after suffering a lower-body injury down the stretch run. His assists were also far down this season, dropping from 55 to 37 in the adjusted tally.
But his overall impact when healthy is undeniable. In addition to posting his second consecutive season with a +33 plus/minus or better (whatever you think of the stat writ large, that's a lot of net goals to be on the ice for!), Hagel also led Tampa Bay with a +7.5% differential in on-versus-off share of shot attempts.
Playoff outlook: When healthy, Hagel is a huge reason why the Lightning have ranked top-four on both sides of the puck in each of the past two seasons. Curiously, though, despite his reputation for playoff-style tenacity, he's never been a big postseason producer (career stats: six goals, 10 assists, 16 points, -9 rating in 37 games).
GAR: 2025-26: 22.5 | 2024-25: 15.0 | 2023-24: 9.5 Three-year avg.: O: 14.4 | D: 3.5 | G: 0.0 | Total: 17.8
The other half of the engine behind Montreal's return to prominence -- alongside Suzuki -- Caufield netted 50 goals (Montreal's first since Stéphane Richer in 1990... are we sensing a theme?) and had by far the best season of his career with 22.5 adjusted GAR at age 25.
Caufield has a preternatural hockey sense to be in exactly the right place to score at exactly the right time, and the shot to take advantage of those chances as well. At the same time, his on-ice possession impact was a huge +8.2% shot share differential, belying doubts about how much the pint-sized Caufield truly helps drive play.
Playoff outlook: Another veteran of that 2021 Cup Final run, Caufield has been on the postseason stage before, notching seven goals and 16 points in 25 games. And along with Suzuki -- plus phenom defenseman Lane Hutson -- Montreal will be counting on Caufield to have a huge series against Vasilevskiy and the Bolts if the Habs are to advance.
GAR: 2025-26: 18.6 | 2024-25: 17.1 | 2023-24: 15.6 Three-year avg.: O: 13.4 | D: 4.3 | G: 0.0 | Total: 17.6
The story of the Sabres' return to the playoffs after a record 14-season drought is also a Rasmus Dahlin story.
Nobody had more adjusted GAR for Buffalo during the span of the drought than Dahlin's 79.5 -- Eichel was second at 67.0 -- and Dahlin entered this season having played more than 500 games as a Sabre without a single postseason appearance. But after sticking it out all that time -- and making it happen, too, with a career-high 18.6 GAR in 2025-26 to lead all Buffalo players -- Dahlin will finally be rewarded with a trip to the playoffs.
Playoff outlook: Buffalo's first-round foe, the Bruins, aren't the defensive juggernaut they used to be (ranking 14th in goal prevention), which is a good sign for a Sabres team more reliant on its fifth-ranked offense than its 11th-ranked defense. Dahlin is a prolific puck-mover and scorer from the back line, so he could have a big series against Boston's D.
GAR: 2025-26: 19.3 | 2024-25: 13.1 | 2023-24: 21.2 Three-year avg.: O: 14.2 | D: 3.4 | G: 0.0 | Total: 17.5
If the pressure of a massive new contract extension got to Kaprizov, you wouldn't know it from his stats. "Kirill the Thrill" snapped back from an injury-plagued 2024-25 season to produce adjusted numbers -- 44 goals, 86 points, 19.3 GAR -- back in line with his previous career norms, even if his per-game output was slightly diminished from the previous two years.
Kaprizov's combination of speed and scoring touch makes him the deadliest part of a Minnesota attack that ranked 11th in goals per game overall and No. 3 in PP success rate.
Playoff outlook: The Wild invested big in Kaprizov -- and other foundational pieces like Hughes -- in preparation for this exact moment. Now it's up to the players to produce, something Kaprizov has done in the playoffs before (with 15 career goals in 25 games) despite Minnesota's overall first-round futility.
GAR: 2025-26: 16.1 | 2024-25: 19.2 | 2023-24: 17.1 Three-year avg.: O: 12.7 | D: 4.5 | G: 0.0 | Total: 17.3
How much did Marner benefit from playing in Toronto alongside players like William Nylander, John Tavares and Auston Matthews? That was the big question ahead of Marner's first season after leaving the Leafs for Vegas -- and his adjusted numbers certainly did see a dip, falling from 27 goals, 102 points and 19.2 GAR to 24 goals, 78 points and 16.1 GAR during his Golden Knights debut.
But before we judge Marner too harshly, we've seen this type of "friction cost" before when it comes to the effect of new teammates and systems on any player's stats. Underneath the hood, Marner's shot-share impact (+3.5% on-ice) stayed more steady.
Playoff outlook: Like Eichel, Marner responded to the Knights' coaching change with his best points-per-game month (well, partial month) of the season, so there's additional reason to think he can outplay his full-season stats going forward.
But Utah will not be an easy first-round opponent, and it's easy to envision the same playoff critiques Marner heard in Toronto resurfacing if he doesn't post strong numbers this time around -- even if those criticisms weren't entirely fair. (He averaged at least a point per game in three of his last four Toronto playoff runs.)
GAR: 2025-26: 16.9 | 2024-25: 15.3 | 2023-24: 21.6 Three-year avg.: O: 12.3 | D: 4.8 | G: 0.0 | Total: 17.1
There is a tendency for Aho to be underrated amid the success of the Hurricanes' system -- Carolina led the league in 5-on-5 shot-attempt share for the fourth consecutive season -- and the depth of their roster.
But the all-around Finnish forward led the Canes in GAR for the fifth time in the past eight seasons, and his ability to contribute across every possible phase of the game (offense, defense, even strength, power-play, shorthanded) has few peers among NHL players.
Playoff outlook: Carolina has been knocking on the door of a title for years, with 47 total playoff wins since 2019 -- Aho's first career postseason appearance -- but zero trips to the Cup Final (and just three conference finals berths) to show for it. Aho himself has produced 34 goals and 85 points in 89 playoff games during that span, but with Florida absent and Tampa Bay on the opposite side of the East bracket, the Canes need to strike right now.
GAR: 2025-26: 14.1 | 2024-25: 16.2 | 2023-24: 27.4 Three-year avg.: 17
GAR: 2025-26: 14.1 | 2024-25: 18 | 2023-24: 21.5 Three-year avg.: 16.7
GAR: 2025-26: 18.6 | 2024-25: 13.6 | 2023-24: 14.5 Three-year avg.: 16.3
GAR: 2025-26: 17.5 | 2024-25: 15.8 | 2023-24: 12.7 Three-year avg.: 16.2
GAR: 2025-26: 16 | 2024-25: 16.7 | 2023-24: 15.4 Three-year avg.: 16.1
GAR: 2025-26: 21.4 | 2024-25: 14 | 2023-24: 0 Three-year avg.: 16.1
GAR: 2025-26: 19.1 | 2024-25: 12.3 | 2023-24: 13.1 Three-year avg.: 15.8
GAR: 2025-26: 14.7 | 2024-25: 15.4 | 2023-24: 19.5 Three-year avg.: 15.8
GAR: 2025-26: 15.5 | 2024-25: 15.5 | 2023-24: 16.1 Three-year avg.: 15.6
GAR: 2025-26: 20.7 | 2024-25: 8.9 | 2023-24: 7 Three-year avg.: 15.5
GAR: 2025-26: 20.5 | 2024-25: 2.4 | 2023-24: 15.9 Three-year avg.: 15.4
GAR: 2025-26: 12.9 | 2024-25: 24.3 | 2023-24: 4.8 Three-year avg.: 15.4
GAR: 2025-26: 15.9 | 2024-25: 16.3 | 2023-24: 11.2 Three-year avg.: 15.3
GAR: 2025-26: 19.8 | 2024-25: 4.4 | 2023-24: 1.7 Three-year avg.: 14.8
GAR: 2025-26: 17.6 | 2024-25: 13.6 | 2023-24: 8.8 Three-year avg.: 14.8
GAR: 2025-26: 17.4 | 2024-25: 13.7 | 2023-24: 8.9 Three-year avg.: 14.7
GAR: 2025-26: 15.3 | 2024-25: 13.9 | 2023-24: 12.9 Three-year avg.: 14.4
GAR: 2025-26: 19 | 2024-25: -1.6 | 2023-24: -0.2 Three-year avg.: 14.2
GAR: 2025-26: 16.8 | 2024-25: 12.5 | 2023-24: 9.8 Three-year avg.: 14.2
GAR: 2025-26: 9.1 | 2024-25: 19.5 | 2023-24: 18.7 Three-year avg.: 14.2
GAR: 2025-26: 14 | 2024-25: 16 | 2023-24: 9.7 Three-year avg.: 13.9
GAR: 2025-26: 17.4 | 2024-25: 11.5 | 2023-24: 6.7 Three-year avg.: 13.7
GAR: 2025-26: 14 | 2024-25: 14.2 | 2023-24: 10.2 Three-year avg.: 13.5
GAR: 2025-26: 16.5 | 2024-25: 9 | 2023-24: 13.1 Three-year avg.: 13.4
GAR: 2025-26: 15.5 | 2024-25: 11.9 | 2023-24: 10.1 Three-year avg.: 13.4
GAR: 2025-26: 14.2 | 2024-25: 12.8 | 2023-24: 11.9 Three-year avg.: 13.3
GAR: 2025-26: 14.7 | 2024-25: 11.9 | 2023-24: 10.9 Three-year avg.: 13.1
GAR: 2025-26: 13.6 | 2024-25: 11.1 | 2023-24: 14.5 Three-year avg.: 12.9
GAR: 2025-26: 12.4 | 2024-25: 9.1 | 2023-24: 21.5 Three-year avg.: 12.8
GAR: 2025-26: 13.3 | 2024-25: 10.4 | 2023-24: 15.8 Three-year avg.: 12.7
