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Progressives are facing their latest test in this week’s Wisconsin and Minnesota primaries as Democrats grapple with their party’s direction in the high-stakes midterm elections.
In Wisconsin, democratic socialist Francesca Hong has surged in the swing state’s Democratic primary for governor amid concerns that candidates from the party’s far-left flank could be a liability in the midterms. And in Minnesota, moderate Rep. Angie Craig (D) is up against progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan in a major proxy battle for Democrats in the reliably blue seat.
The Tuesday races come a week after a progressive Abdul El-Sayed defeated moderate Rep. Haley Stevens (D) in Michigan’s must-win Senate race, adding to a string of progressive and anti-establishment wins this cycle that have stoked debate about Democrats’ path forward.
Progressives and democratic socialists have been on a tear this year, notching high-profile wins and unseating some longtime House incumbents in Democrat-dominated New York and Colorado. Now, with Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota all up this month, the spotlight is on the more purple Midwest.
One Wisconsin Democratic strategist granted anonymity to speak candidly characterized the governor’s race in Wisconsin as “not a test for progressives as much as a test for people who are fed up with the way things are.”
“I think, especially among activists, they’re seeing that Wisconsin went for Trump twice, and it’s like: How did we let this happen? How are the same consultants, the same people running things and doing the same things over and over again and expecting different results?”
Hong, a 37-year-old chef and state lawmaker, holds a strong lead in the wide-open race to replace retiring Gov. Tony Evers (D) and face off this fall against the presumptive GOP nominee, Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany.
Former Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) was seen as a possible frontrunner when he announced his bid in 2025, but suspended his campaign late last month. Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, who ranked first in a Wisconsin Democrats straw poll in June, also ended her bid in July.
Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley briefly dropped out of the race this summer but reentered with Evers’s endorsement as Hong snapped up support from progressive Democrats, such as Reps. Ro Khanna (Calif.) and Ilhan Omar (Minn.).
Now, Decision Desk (DDHQ) shows Hong leading the primary with 33 percent, well ahead of Crowley’s 12 percent.
Hong, backed by the Madison and Milwaukee Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) branches, has drawn criticism for past stances — including social media posts that called to “defund the police” and “cancel Thanksgiving” that she’s since distanced herself from — as some Democrats fret that far-left candidates could help Republicans paint the party at large as too extreme.
“Hong’s belated shift has not stopped some Wisconsin Democrats from panicking over the fact that Hong looks likely to win on Tuesday, potentially threatening the party’s ability to win in a battleground state,” DDHQ chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley in a breakdown of Tuesday’s races.
After El-Sayed’s primary win in Michigan last week, former Obama strategist David Axelrod suggested that a Hong loss in Wisconsin would benefit El-Sayed — who is not a member of the DSA, though there is some policy overlap — by contrast.
“He is a serious person. She is a font of zany liberal, faculty lounge exotica,” Axelrod said.
Hong hit back that the framing “is a perfect example of why the consultant class keeps losing elections.”
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), the de-facto leaders of the party’s left flank, have both notably not endorsed Hong. The senator told “Pod Save America” last week that he was more focused on Senate and House contests.
In Minnesota, Flanagan, a progressive, wants to build on this primary cycle’s progressive winning streak as she jostles with Craig to replace retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D). Flanagan has not described herself as a democratic socialist.
Craig has outraised Flanagan by roughly two-to-one and ended the last quarter with more cash on hand. But Flanagan narrowly leads in DDHQ’s latest polling averages, with roughly 42 percent to Craig’s 38 percent.
The second-in-command to former vice-presidential nominee Gov. Tim Walz (D), Flanagan has support from Smith and Sanders. He predicted this week that the race will be “tight.”
Flanagan has faced headwinds from the state’s sprawling fraud scandal, but has been able to hammer Craig’s record on immigration in the state targeted by President Trump’s crackdown.
The lieutenant governor “may have the right pitch at this juncture of the Democratic Party’s internal politics,” said DDHQ chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley in his analysis, as “a progressive running in what’s been the progressives’ year.”
The winner of the Democratic primary is favored to win the general for the likely blue Senate seat, though Republicans haven’t given up hope of putting the seat in play. Former NFL sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya appears to lead in the Minnesota GOP Senate primary against former NBA player Royce White, the 2024 nominee, and former Navy seal Adam Schwarze.
Still, Craig, who has won four times in a purple House district, has made electability a central component of her pitch to voters, arguing that the GOP “is dying” to run against Flanagan.
The Wisconsin strategist, however, shrugged off the concerns that progressive candidates are general election risks, arguing that President Trump and Republicans have long sought to frame Democrats as extreme, regardless of the candidate’s platform.
“No matter who the Democrats were to nominate in Wisconsin, Republicans would be trying to run against socialism and communism,” the strategist said, pointing to Hong specifically.
With just over 80 days to go before the midterm general election, there are still more tests ahead for the Democratic Party
Next week, Florida offers a stage for the DSA movement as DSA-backed Oliver Larkin hopes to unseat Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D) in the toss up the 23rd Congressional District.
“We’re now the second half of a year where Democratic Socialists have made massive gains in executive offices across the country,” DSA co-Chair Ashik Siddique told The Hill, pointing to New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s win in the Big Apple and Janeese Lewis George’s primary win in Washington, D.C. — both blue stronghold cities.
“There’s a real hunger for democratic socialist politics in many parts of the country,” Siddique said. “Wisconsin will be an important test of how deep the base of this is beyond cities where we have an established base in recent years.”
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