Predicting last-place finisher for each NFL division in 2026: Browns, Raiders, Commanders among possible duds

Only five days remain before the 2026 NFL season kicks off with the Super Bowl LX champion Seattle Seahawks hosting the AFC champion New England Patriots in a Super Bowl rematch on Sept. 9.   

Hope is still ever present around the NFL with the league's 32 teams rested and ready to roll after cutting their rosters down to 53 players. Every franchise's coaching staff is still painting the picture to their players that they can make a run to the playoffs. That is somewhat understandable with nearly the entire league healthy and refreshed. 

However, this 2026 NFL season preview is not the locale to be an optimist. That is because the objective here is to accurately project which team will be the last-place finisher in all eight of the NFL's divisions. Without further ado, let's enjoy some haterade and a dive into the league's projected last-place teams for 2026. 

AFC East: Miami Dolphins

2025 season finish: 7-10 (third place)  

The Miami Dolphins are tanking despite new head coach Jeff Hafley's comments stating otherwise. Miami possesses an NFL-record dead salary cap hit of $181.6 million in 2026 for the releases of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, wide receiver Tyreek Hill and edge rusher Bradley Chubb, plus the trades of wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. 

All of the free agents they signed this offseason were given one-year deals with the exception of quarterback Malik Willis and his three-year, $67.5 million deal with $45 million guaranteed at signing. It's clear the Dolphins are clearing the deck to take big swings in the 2027 offseason. Of their league-high 13 players drafted, many of them are in line to start as rookies: first-round guard Kadyn Proctor, first-round cornerback Chris Johnson, second-round linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, third-round rookie Caleb Douglas and fifth-round safety Michael Taaffe. 

Longtime Dallas Cowboys rotational wide receiver Jalen Tolbert has the most career receiving yards in the NFL on the current Dolphins roster with 1,093. Miami is playing for 2027, and they'll finish last in the AFC East. 

AFC North: Cleveland Browns

2025 season finish: 5-12 (last place)  

The corpse of Deshaun Watson is the Cleveland Browns' Week 1 starter. Watson, a quarterback who blew out his Achilles in 2023 and once again while rehabbing the original injury in 2024, has only played 19 games in four seasons since the Browns traded three first-round picks to the Houston Texans to acquire his services. Watson has thrown for 300-plus yards in exactly none of those 19 games played, and among the 42 quarterbacks who have thrown 550 or more passes from the years of 2022 and 2024, when Watson has played for Cleveland, Watson's 6.0 yards per attempt ranked 41st in the league at 6.0. That's before even getting into his off-field legal issues since arriving in Cleveland.

Bad vibes all around. If/when he gets benched, Shedeur Sanders would take his place. The 2025 fifth-round pick faced pressure on 51% of his dropbacks, the highest such rate in the NFL despite being blitzed on just 24% of his dropbacks since his NFL debut in Week 11, the seventh-lowest such rate in the league. It's going to be another long season in Cleveland. 

Comp pct

56.6%

2nd-worst

Interceptions

10

Worst

TD-INT

8-10

2nd-worst

Passer rating

68.1

2nd-worst

AFC South: Tennessee Titans

2025 season finish: 3-14 (last place)  

This is less of an indictment on the Tennessee Titans and more of a salute to the rest of the AFC South. The Houston Texans have the most ferocious defense in football led by All-Pro edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. The Jacksonville Jaguars are the defending division champs with quarterback Trevor Lawrence fresh off a fifth-place finish in league MVP voting after he produced 38 total touchdowns, the third-most in the NFL in 2025. Plus, the Indianapolis Colts looked like a playoff team before Daniel Jones' season-ending Achilles tear. 

Titans quarterback Cam Ward flashed potential with 12 total touchdowns to just three turnovers in his final eight starts of the year, but the offensive line still has some question marks after he was sacked an NFL-high 55 times in 2025. Tennessee is headed in the right direction, but needs one more good draft to fill out the roster. 

AFC West: Las Vegas Raiders

2025 season finish: 3-14 (last place)  

The Las Vegas Raiders could be a lot of fun once they fortify their wide receiver room and their offensive line. Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington Jr. should be a fun one-two punch at running back for new head coach Klint Kubiak plus the always-reliable Pro Bowl tight end Brock Bowers. However, Fernando Mendoza, the 2026 first overall draft pick, may end up marinating behind Kirk Cousins longer than expected to protect his long-term health behind the Raiders' questionable offensive front line. 

Plus, the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers were both playoff teams a year ago who got better this offseason, and the Kansas City Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes back while adding Super Bowl LX MVP running back Kenneth Walker III. Las Vegas is set for another last-place finish in 2026. 

NFC East: Washington Commanders

2025 season finish: 5-12 (third place)  

The vibes are bad in Washington. CBS Sports colleague Zach Pereles watched the Commanders' joint practice with the Baltimore Ravens back on Aug. 26, and he said Washington "didn't even belong on the same field" as Baltimore. Five-time Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil could miss the entire 2026 season with a torn triceps injury, and center Nick Allegretti has been dealing with a nagging calf injury. Their defense will be much improved after all the additions they made in the draft and free agency, but that offensive line could doom 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year quarterback Jayden Daniels in 2026.

Daniels, who was known for being a little thin and taking Looney Tunes-level big hits in college, missed 10 games in 2025 with multiple injuries: two games with a sprained knee, one game with a strained hamstring and seven games with a dislocated elbow. There's a good chance Washington struggles in 2026 because Daniels doesn't get the support he needs from his offensive line. 

NFC North: Minnesota Vikings

2025 season finish: 9-8 (third place)  

One would think the Minnesota Vikings' signing of two-time Pro Bowl quarterback Kyler Murray would keep them off this list, but that's not the case here. Murray earned his Pro Bowl selections in 2020 and 2021. That's a lifetime ago in NFL years. From 2022 to 2025, Murray missed 30 of his possible 68 games. In the five games Murray played for the Cardinals in 2025, he averaged a career-low 227.0 total yards per game. 

Win pct

.390

26th

Yards per pass attempt

6.6

29th

TD pct

3.8%

28th

Passer rating

90.3

25th

Murray's best attribute, his scrambling ability, has been cooked by his lower-body injuries over the years. An ankle injury caused him to miss three games in 2021, and a torn ACL he suffered in the 2022 season caused him to miss a combined 15 games across the 2022 and 2023 seasons. In 2025, a foot injury caused Murray to miss the final 12 games of the year. He's not the guy from 2021 who made sweet music with DeAndre Hopkins. 

Plus, the Vikings just don't have any truly impactful defensive players outside of Pro Bowl edge rusher Andrew Van Ginkel. No amount of smoke and mirrors that defensive coordinator Brian Flores schemes up can change that. Minnesota needs to find long-term answers at multiple spots on defense and at the quarterback position. 

The Green Bay Packers (Jordan Love), Chicago Bears (Caleb Williams) and Detroit Lions (Jared Goff) all have franchise quarterbacks. The Vikings don't.

NFC South: Atlanta Falcons

2025 season finish: 8-9 (third place)  

The Atlanta Falcons had a sagging pass rush for years. That's why they drafted edge rusher Jalon Walker 15th overall and edge rusher James Pearce Jr. 26th overall in the 2025 NFL Draft. They'll be without both of them for much of the 2026 season because Walker tore his ACL in a training camp practice, and Pearce is suspended for the first eight games of 2026 for his behavior in a domestic dispute with then-girlfriend Rickea Jackson. 

On offense, Atlanta just doesn't have a quarterback. Tua Tagovailoa is fresh off the worst season of his career in 2025, having thrown a career-high 15 interceptions while averaging 6.9 yards per pass attempt, his fewest under then-Miami Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel. He also looked rough in joint practices and preseason games this offseason, which caused him to essentially lose a one-man quarterback competition with Michael Penix Jr. recovering from the third torn ACL of his football career. The Falcons will struggle with their pass rush and quarterback position, arguably the two biggest factors in an NFL team's success. That's a recipe for disaster. 

NFC West: Arizona Cardinals

2025 season finish: 3-14 (last place)  

The Arizona Cardinals could easily finish with the worst record in football in 2026. The other three teams in the NFC West are the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks, the NFC runner-up Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers, a team that reached the divisional round of the playoffs despite being the NFL's most injured team. Arizona just isn't close to being in the same zip code as those other teams.

Plus, the Cardinals won just one of quarterback Jacoby Brissett's 12 starts last year, and that was against the Dallas Cowboys, the 2025 season's worst scoring defense. The Cardinals are in the early stages of yet another rebuild after bringing in another new head coach in Mike LaFleur. They'll be one of the worst teams in football thanks to playing in an absolutely stacked division.