Plurality in new polling says prediction market betting on elections should be illegal

Business Plurality in new polling says prediction market betting on elections should be illegal Comments: by Max Rego - 06/22/26 11:17 AM ET Comments: Link copied by Max Rego - 06/22/26 11:17 AM ET Comments: Link copied

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A plurality of respondents to a new poll believes placing prediction market bets on election outcomes should be illegal.

The Politico survey found that 44 percent of 1,167 respondents believe betting on election results should be illegal. Three in 10 respondents said the practice should be legal, while a quarter said they did not know.

Wagering on election outcomes via prediction markets, particularly on Polymarket and Kalshi, rose in popularity during the 2024 campaign.

Fortune reported on Election Day in 2024 that Polymarket users placed $3.2 billion in bets on the contest between President Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris, with a majority of bets on the former.

Forty-five percent of respondents to the Politico poll who voted for Trump said betting on election outcomes should be illegal, while 50 percent of Harris voters said the same.

Respondents’ views of wagering on election outcomes differed from their views toward betting on other topics, such as sports, awards show results or the weather.

Over half of respondents said sports betting on prediction markets should be legal, 45 percent said wagering on awards shows should be legal and 46 percent said betting on the weather should be legal.

But just 27 percent of respondents said wagering on potential comments from the president and other newsmakers should be legal, with 40 percent saying it should be illegal and 32 percent saying they did not know.

The Politico poll surveyed 2,035 U.S. adults in total, with results weighted by age, race, gender, geography and educational attainment. The poll, conducted by Public First from May 17 to 19, had an overall margin of error of 2.4 percentage points.

Multiple instances of individuals allegedly using inside information to place bets on prediction markets have occurred in recent months.

Last month, federal prosecutors charged a Google employee with insider trading on Polymarket, accusing 36-year-old Michele Spagnuolo of using nonpublic data on the company’s “Year in Search” list for 2025.

The Justice Department also alleged in April that U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke placed wagers on Polymarket regarding the operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro using details he garnered from the planning of the raid.

Multiple states have sought to regulate the use of prediction markets, but the Trump administration has filed suit to block those actions — arguing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission alone has authority over the platforms.

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