Hello football friends, and welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
If the NFC East ceases to exist this week, it's because the entire division imploded in Week 5. The implosion started on Thursday with the Cowboys' loss to a 0-4 Buccaneers team, and then things only got uglier from there.
On Sunday, the Eagles somehow managed to lose even though they kicked a field goal that gave them a 16-14 lead with just eight seconds left against the Jaguars. And let's not forget about the other two teams. The Commanders and Giants went to overtime and somehow tied, even though both teams had the ball inside their opponent's 25-yard line in OT. The Commanders actually had the ball in field goal range at the end of overtime, but they simply let the clock run out before they could try a kick.
Basically, the NFC East gave us a coaching clinic on what not to do in late-game situations. I could probably spend the entire day talking about everything the NFC East did wrong in Week 5, but we've got a newsletter to get to, so let's get to it.
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1. NFL Week 5 grades: 49ers earn high mark for beating Seahawks, Patriots steamroll Raiders
Kathryn Riley/Getty Images It appears that Josh McDaniels was still kind of bitter about being fired by the Raiders. The Patriots scored 45 points against the Raiders on Sunday, and that happened because McDaniels refused to take his foot off the gas. With New England up 38-17 late in the fourth quarter, the Patriots had an eight-play TD drive where they threw four passes. At that point, you should be running out the clock, but McDaniels clearly wanted to BURY the Raiders.
Sorry, Tom Brady. Your old team destroyed the team you now own.
Anyway, we're starting our grades section off with the Patriots' big win.
Patriots 45-17 over Raiders
- Patriots takeaway: If you watched Drake Maye play at all during the first three weeks of the season, you can go ahead and forget what you saw. That was bad Drake Maye, and he doesn't exist anymore. Instead, 2025 Drake Maye showed up and torched the Raiders' defense for 374 yards and four touchdowns. This game is what the Patriots offense looks like when it's at its best: Maye spread the ball around to nine different receivers, and the Pats added 137 rushing yards. Maye was so good that he overshadowed a dominant performance from a Patriots defense that sacked Kirk Cousins three times. If the Patriots look like this going forward, they might be able to get back to the Super Bowl. Grade: A+
- Raiders takeaway: The Raiders' defense has had some trouble stopping the run this year, but this week, they had trouble stopping everything. This team had no answers for a Patriots offense that racked up 536 yards, which is the most Vegas has given up in a game since 2019. Things weren't any better on the other side of the ball. The Raiders have struggled to get their rushing attack going this year, and that hurt them here. With a non-existent running game, that put a lot of pressure on Kirk Cousins, who was under siege all game. With two straight losses, the Raiders' 3-0 start seems like a distant memory, and things aren't going to get any easier with the Bills and Rams coming up next. Grade: F
- 49ers takeaway: The Mike Evans signing is suddenly looking like one of the most brilliant moves by any team this offseason. Brock Purdy threw for just 189 yards against a tough Seahawks defense, but 113 of that went to Evans, who dominated Seattle's secondary. He caught three passes for 60 yards in the fourth quarter, plus a two-point conversion. As good as Evans was, it was the 49ers' defense that saved the day here. There was a fumble recovery for a TD by Gracen Halton at the end of the first half, there were two interceptions by Renardo Green and there was a game-winning tackle by Malik Mustapha in the final minute of the fourth quarter. It was a strong team performance by a defense that kept coming up with big play after big play. The 49ers have now taken down both the Seahawks and Rams this year on the road, and right now, it feels like the NFC West is going to run through San Francisco. Grade: B+
- Seahawks takeaway: The Seahawks are going to be kicking themselves for this loss. The offense got sloppy with three turnovers, including two interceptions from Sam Darnold. The Seahawks QB seemed flustered by a 49ers rush that sacked him five times, which is the most he's ever been sacked in a game for the Seahawks. One issue for Darnold was that Jaxon Smith-Njigba seemed to be his only viable receiver in this game. Defensively, Mike Macdonald had a pretty solid game plan: The Seahawks held Brock Purdy in check, and Christian McCaffrey couldn't find any running room, but Seattle had no answers for Mike Evans, who accounted for 42% of San Francisco's offensive yardage. The Seahawks are going to be kicking themselves all week for not pulling out the win here. Grade: B
As for the other grades that we've handed out so far in Week 5, you can check those out here.
2. NFL Week 5 winners and losers: Giants and Commanders tie puts them on the loser's list
You can't have a week of NFL action without having winners and losers, so here are some winners and losers. In a twist, we had one game where there wasn't a winner or a loser since it ended in a tie. When that happens, both teams usually end up in our loser column.
Carter Bahns came up with this week's list of winners and losers, and we're going to check out his losers below.
LOSERS
- Giants and Commanders overtime execution. After both teams went scoreless on their first possession of overtime, all Cam Skattebo needed to do to help the Giants defeat the Commanders was hang onto the football. Then, he fumbled. Then the game's execution got even worse. Washington threw away the gift it received by squandering a game-winning opportunity of its own. The contest ended in an unbelievable 27-all tie.
- Jim Harbaugh's job security. With an offense that cannot get out of its own way and seemingly has no second gear, it is difficult to see the Chargers getting right. Harbaugh could be forced to make an offensive coordinator change to save his job, but as recently as last week, he said that Mike McDaniel is safe.
- Ejected players from Eagles-Jaguars game. Two players saw action on only one play in the Week 5 international game (Imagine flying all the way to London and only being on the field for one play). Jaguars defensive end Bryan Thomas Jr. (not to be confused with their wide receiver, Brian Thomas Jr.) and Eagles linebacker Jeremiah Trotter Jr. both received unsportsmanlike conduct penalties after they tangled up in a scuffle on the opening kickoff, and the officiating crew ejected them from the game. The apple did not fall far from the tree in the Trotter family. Trotter's father, Jeremiah, was ejected ahead of the 2005 season opener when he got into a pregame fight with an opponent.
If you want to see Carter's list of winners (and a couple of other losers), be sure to click here.
3. Overreactions from Week 5: Are the Vikings actually Super Bowl contenders?
Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the NFL. Personally, I overreact to everything. With that in mind, Zach Pereles decided to take a look at several things that happened during Week 5 to decide for yourself if we're all overreacting.
Statement: The Vikings are legit Super Bowl contenders. Overreaction or reality: Reality. Flores is the best coordinator in the NFL. We already knew this defense was excellent, but it was encouraging to see Kyler Murray play his best game with the Vikings yet. He completed 24 of 30 passes (80%) for 229 yards and a touchdown to Justin Jefferson, and he ran the ball seven times for another 54 yards, excluding three kneeldowns. Murray doesn't have to be great. But if he can take care of the ball, find Jefferson — who made some spectacular catches — and make a few timely plays, this is a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Statement: The NFC East winner will have a losing record. Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. The NFC East did not have a banner week. The Cowboys dropped a home game to the previously winless Buccaneers on Thursday. Sunday morning, the Eagles lost after taking a two-point lead with eight seconds and inexplicably giving the Jaguars a returnable kickoff. All of that paled in comparison to the utter disaster that was the end of the Commanders-Giants game. That means the 3-1-1 Giants are still in first place in the division, the Cowboys and Eagles are 2-3, and the Commanders are 1-3-1 and reeling. It becomes really, really difficult to see any team in this division reaching 10 wins, simply because each team has major issues. Only once has the NFC East (as currently constructed) had a champion with a losing record. I won't go that far yet, but no team reaching double-digit wins is very much on the table.
Statement: The Commanders should fire Dan Quinn, but they really can't right now. Overreaction or reality: Reality. I hate advocating for anyone to be fired, but the NFL is a results-driven business, and the results just aren't good enough for the Commanders. As Quinn said, Sunday's tie feels like a loss, and it feels like another lost season in the nation's capital. Quinn put all the blame for the debacle on his shoulders, as he should have. But the idea that it's time for him to be fired goes deeper than Sunday. A week earlier, a poor fourth-and-1 decision using a third-string quarterback turned a winnable game against the Colts into a blowout loss. Quinn's performance has been fire-worthy. The thing is, the Commanders have two first-time coordinators. There is one former head coach on staff — running backs coach Anthony Lynn — but upending the staff would be a tough development in a season that's quickly slipping from returning to the playoffs to simply hoping Daniels can stay healthy and continue to progress.
There are plenty more overreactions, and you can check them out here.
4. Marvin Harrison Jr. trade grades: Texans get high mark for acquiring Cardinals' receiver
Going into the weekend, there was some speculation that the Cardinals might look to trade Marvin Harrison Jr., and a deal actually went down on Sunday. Harrison is now headed to Houston, where he'll be reunited with his former college quarterback, C.J. Stroud.
Here are the details of the deal:
- Texans get: Marvin Harrison Jr., 2027 seventh-round pick
- Cardinals get: 2027 second-round pick, 2027 sixth-round pick
Harrison, who was in his third season with the Cardinals, had just five catches through Arizona's first four games. Going into training camp, it seemed like a split between the two sides was almost inevitable. The relationship between Harrison and the Cardinals got off to an ugly start almost immediately after Arizona made him the fourth overall pick in 2024. During his rookie year, Harrison asked the team to purchase him a $50,000 jugs machine that he wanted to use at home, but the team declined, according to AZ Central. It's a small thing, but it shows that some franchises just aren't doing everything in their power to win.
TRADE GRADES
Whenever there's a trade, there's 100% chance we're going to hand out grades for that deal, and that's exactly what we did in this situation. Garrett Podell graded the deal, and here's what he came up with:
- Texans grade: C-. The Texans are grasping at straws in 2026. Houston was desperate and filled a need, but what it spent to acquire Harrison is a little rich, given the writing was on the wall that Harrison Jr.'s Cardinals' career was coming to an end.
- Cardinals grade: B+. The Cardinals did about as good a job as they could to recoup value for Harrison Jr., with everyone and their grandma aware that Harrison Jr.'s time in Arizona was a bust and about to end. A second-round pick in the vaunted 2027 NFL Draft is ideal. Plus, they moved up a round at the back of the draft, sending a 2027 seventh-round pick along with Harrison Jr. and getting a 2027 sixth-round pick back.
You can read our full story on the Harrison trade here.
5. Monday night preview: Picks and best bets for Bills at Rams
Harry How/Getty Images Every Monday night game has been a dud so far this year, but I fully expect that to change with a monstrous showdown in Los Angeles. In what could end up being a Super Bowl preview, we have the 3-1 Bills getting ready to face off against the 2-2 Rams.
The Rams are expected to have Aaron Donald back in the lineup after missing him for their past three games. As for the Bills, DL Ed Oliver and WR Josh Palmer have both been ruled out.
Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game:
- Why the Bills can win: If the Bills are going to win, they need to get James Cook going. Dating back to last season, the Bills are 11-0 when they rush for at least 150 yards, including 2-0 this season. If the Bills can get Cook going, Buffalo can control the clock, which will keep the Rams' high-powered offense off the field. The Bills will also need Josh Allen to be Josh Allen. The last time these two teams played, Allen put on his Superman cape and totaled 424 yards and six touchdowns in a Bills loss. If he gets just a little bit of help from Cook when it comes to carrying the offense, the Bills should be in good shape.
- Why the Rams can win: This could end up being a huge night for Matthew Stafford. Heading into Week 5, the Rams are averaging 290.3 passing yards per game, which is the second-most in the NFL, and now, they get to face off against a Bills defense that hasn't been able to stop the pass. Not only have the Bills given up the fourth-most passing yards through four weeks, but they don't have a strong pass-rush, and it doesn't help that they won't have Ed Oliver on the field for this game. With Puka Nacua and Davante Adams both healthy, the Rams could put up some huge numbers in the passing game.
You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here.
If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props.
- ONE RECEIVING PROP I LIKE: Puka Nacua OVER 7.5 receptions (+118 at DraftKings): In his return to the lineup last week, Nacua had nine catches against the Eagles, and now, he gets to face a Bills defense that has struggled to stop the pass this year. Matthew Stafford has targeted Nacua 21 times in two games — that's 10.5 targets per game — so this feels like a game where the Rams' star should finish with at least eight receptions.
- ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Tyler Bass OVER 2.5 extra points (+110 DraftKings): The Bills have a high-scoring offense, and Bass has hit at least three extra points in three of Buffalo's four games this year. I would be shocked if the Bills don't score at least three touchdowns. Actually, nothing shocks me anymore with my picks, but I would be surprised if Bass doesn't hit three extra points.
If you're wondering how my props are doing this year, I'm 6-12 (2-7 on kicker props and 4-5 on all other props). After starting off 5-3, I'm now 1-9 on my last 10 props. That's clearly a sign that you should be fading me until further notice.
And now, it's time for some picks.
PICKS FOR 'MNF'
Jared Dubin's pick: Rams 28-24 over Bills Jordan Dajani's pick: Bills 30-27 over Rams John Breech's pick: Rams 38-31 over Bills Tyler Sullivan's pick: Rams 28-24 over Bills Prisco's pick: Rams 34-33 over Bills
Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, six of our seven experts are taking the Rams to win straight-up, and five of us are taking the Rams to cover as a 3.5-point favorite.
6. Extra points: Michael Penix Jr. knocked out of Sunday night game
It's been a busy few days around the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything, I put together a quick roundup for you.
- Michael Penix Jr. suffers late injury on Sunday night. The Falcons QB suffered a rib injury during the fourth quarter of Atlanta's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens. Penix tried to play through it, but he was unable to take the field in overtime. At that point, Tua Tagovailoa took over and immediately threw an interception that lost the game for the Falcons. Penix has already said he wants to play in Week 6 against the Bears, but that's obviously up in the air right now. "Knowing me, I am going to be ready to go next week because I've sat out enough in my career," Penix said, via the team's website. Penix is scheduled to undergo an MRI today, and at that point, the Falcons should have a better idea about his availability for Week 6.
- Fernando Mendoza makes NFL debut. With the Raiders trailing big in the fourth quarter against the Patriots, Klint Kubiak decided to bench Kirk Cousins in favor of Fernando Mendoza. The No. 1 overall pick got on the field for one drive, and he ended up going 6-of-8 for 48 yards. His biggest play came on a 16-yard pass to Tre Tucker. If you want all the details on his first action of the season, we've got that here.
- Dre Greenlaw could face a potential suspension. The 49ers might not have one of their best defensive players in Week 6. Dre Greenlaw was ejected from Sunday's game in Seattle for head-butting Seahawks linebacker Ernest Jones IV, who wasn't even wearing a helmet (You can see the clip here). According to PFT, the NFL will review the play on Monday for a possible suspension. If Greenlaw can't play, the 49ers won't have their second leading tackler on Monday night in Week 6 against the Commanders.
