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Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Updated Post Venice and Telluride, as TIFF Gets Underway

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CitrixNews Staff
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Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Updated Post Venice and Telluride, as TIFF Gets Underway
Being Heumann, Obsession and The Housewife 'Being Heumann,' 'Obsession' and 'The Housewife' Apple TV; Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection; Courtesy of TIFF

A NOTE FROM SCOTT Since my first forecast of the season posted on Sept. 2, the 83rd Venice Film Festival and the 53rd Telluride Film Festival have come and gone, and the 51st Toronto International Film Festival has kicked off, so there has been significant movement on the charts. To recap some recent developments…

Venice enthusiastically embraced the world premieres of the disturbing Gaza documentary NAZA (a record 25-minute standing ovation), the Javier Bardem/Penélope Cruz reunion Bunker (16 minutes), Martin McDonagh’s eccentric dramedy Wild Horse Nine (14 minutes), the To Catch a Predator dramatization Primetime (9 minutes) and Lee Chang-dong’s Possible Love (6 minutes). The fest’s Maggie Gyllenhaal-led jury will announce its prize winners later today.

Javier Bardem and Penélope Cruz attend the world premiere of Florian Zeller’s Bunker at the Venice Film Festival on Sept. 8. (Photo by Marilla Sicilia/Archivio Marilla Sicilia/Mondadori Portfolio via Getty Images)

Telluride also flipped for Wild Horse Nine, as well as for the world premieres of the unusual documentary You Can See Everything (a surprise screening at the fest), the Julianne Moore showcase The Debut and the Andrew Scott and Carrie Coon vehicles Elsinore and The Liberation, respectively. Additionally, Cannes carryovers La Bola Negra and Club Kid played through the roof in their North American bows, as did Rose, for which Sandra Hüller won the best actress prize in Berlin.

A Long Winter’s Andrew Haigh, Club Kid’s Jordan Firstman and Cara Delevingne, The Debut’s Julianne Moore and Elsinore’s Andrew Scott ahead of the North American premiere of Club Kid at the Telluride Film Festival on Sept. 5. (Photo by Vivien Killilea/Getty Images)

The opening weekend at TIFF has been somewhat muted, presumably in part because of the fest’s unofficial policy of not programming in its first few days films that played at Venice or Telluride. Thursday, the fest’s opening night, featured the world premieres of Being Heumann (THR review), Sian Heder’s follow-up to best picture Oscar winner CODA, and The Housewife (THR review), starring Naomi Watts, both of which were received warmly.

Sian Heder flanked by the cast of Being Heumann ahead of the film’s world premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival on Sept. 10. (Photo by Arturo Holmes/Getty Images)

A highlight of TIFF’s Friday was the return of Obsession, which premiered in the fest’s Midnight Madness section a year ago en route to massive commercial success and considerable Oscar buzz this year. Director Curry Barker, 26, and star Inde Navarrette, 25, participated in a charming and insightful TIFF Dialogue before screening their film again, the first of several upcoming stops for the two — together and separate — on behalf of the film’s little-engine-that-could awards campaign.

Obsession star Inde Navarrette and writer/director/editor Curry Barker participate in a Dialogue at the Toronto International Film Festival on Sept. 11. (Photo by Frazer Harrison/Getty Images)

Saturday night brings the highly-anticipated unveiling of I Play Rocky, which Amazon/MGM surely hopes can retrace the path of an earlier Peter Farrelly movie that premiered at TIFF en route to winning the fest’s audience award and several Oscars, including best picture: Green Book.

A friendly reminder that the Feinberg Forecast aims to project what will happen, not to advocate for what should, and does not rank films that its namesake has not seen or that remain under embargo.

  • Best Picture

    Tony Revolori, Robert Pattinson in Primetime Image Credit: Courtesy of A24

    Frontrunners 1. The Odyssey (Universal, July 17, THR review) — Christopher Nolan & Emma Thomas 2. Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight, Nov. 6, THR review) — Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh & Anita Overland VENI, TELL, TIFF, LOND 3. Project Hail Mary (Amazon/MGM, March 20, THR review) — Ryan Gosling, Phil Lord, Chris Miller, Rachel O’Connor, Amy Pascal, Aditya Sood & Andy Weir 4. La Bola Negra (Netflix, Oct. 16, THR review) — Javier Ambrossi & Javier Calvo CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF, LOND 5. Club Kid (A24, Nov. 6, THR review) — Alex Coco, Galen Core & Ryan Heller CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF, LOND 6. The Invite (A24, June 26, THR review) — Ben Browning, Megan Ellison & David Permut SUND 7. Fjord (Neon, Oct. 9, THR review) — Dyveke Bkørkly Graver, Cristian Mungiu, Andrea Berentsen Ottmar & Tudor Reu CANN, KARL, TELL, TIFF, NYFF 8. You Can See Everything (A24, Oct. 16, THR review) — Nathan Fielder & Lance Oppenheim TELL, NYFF 9. Obsession (Focus, May 15, THR review) — James Harris, Haley Nicole Johnson, Christian Mercuri & Roman Viaris-de-Lesegno TIFF 10. Elsinore (Focus, Nov. 20, THR review) — Carolyn Marks Blackwood, Mickey Liddell, Stefano Massenzi, Andrea Occhipinti, Andrew Scott, Pete Shilaimon & Gabrielle Tana TELL, TIFF, LOND

    Major Threats 11. Tender Loving Care (Bleecker Street, Dec. 4, THR review) — Georgina Lowe TELL, TIFF, NYFF, LOND 12. The Debut (A24, Dec. 11, THR review) — Jesse Eisenberg, Ali Herting, Dave McNary & Emma Stone TELL, TIFF, NYFF, LOND 13. Michael (Lionsgate, 4/24, THR review) — John Branca, Graham King & John McClain 14. Toy Story 5 (Disney/Pixar, June 19, THR review) — Jessica Choi & Lindsey Collins 15. All of a Sudden (Neon, Nov. 25, THR review) — Renan Artukmaç, Bettina Brokemper, Julien Deris, David Gauquié, Hiroko Matsuda, Jean-Luc Ormières, Kôsuke Oshida, Joseph Rouschop & Yûji Sadai CANN, KARL, TIFF, NYFF, LOND 16. Ink (Netflix, Dec. 11, THR review) — Danny Boyle, Michael Ellenberg, Tessa Ross & Tracey Seaward VENI, TELL, TIFF, LOND

    Possibilities 17. Paper Tiger (Neon, Nov. 13, THR review) — James Gray, Anthony Katagas & Rodrigo Teixeira CANN, KARL, NYFF, LOND 18. Minotaur (MUBI, Nov. 20, THR review) — Charles Gillibert & Andrei Zvyagintsev CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF, LOND 19. Fatherland (MUBI, Oct. 23, THR review) — Edward Berger, Lorenzo Gangarossa, Mario Gianani, Lorenzo Mieli, Ewa Puszczyńska, Dimitri Rassam & Jeanne Tremsal CANN, KARL, TELL, NYFF, LOND 20. Sense and Sensibility (Focus, Oct. 16) — Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, India Flint & Jo Wallet 21. Rose (MUBI, Dec. 11, THR review) BERL, KARL, TELL, NYFF, LOND

    Long Shots 22. Tuner (Black Bear, 5/22, THR review) — Michael Heimler, Teddy Schwarzman, JoAnne Sellar & Lila Yacoub TIFF, SUND 23. Bunker (Sony Classics, Dec. 10, THR review) — Fernando Bovaira, Alice Dawson, Federica Sainte-Rose & Simón de Santiago VENI, TIFF 24. Being Heumann (Apple, Nov. 6, THR review) — John W. Beach, Kevin Cleary, Sian Heder, David Permut & Kevin Walsh TIFF, LOND 25. Coward (MUBI, Dec. 25, THR review) — Michiel Dhont CANN, KARL, TIFF, LOND 26. The Mosquito Bowl (Netflix, Oct. 30) — Peter Berg, Alex Gayner & Brian Grazer 27. Josephine (Sumerian, Nov. 20, THR review) — Jesse Hope, Josh Peters & Max Walker-Silverman SUND, BERL, LOND

    Still to See or Under Embargo Artificial (Neon, TBD) — Jeffrey Clifford, Jennifer Fox, Luca Guadagnino, David Heyman & Simon Rich NYFF, LOND Behemoth! (Searchlight, Dec. 4) — John Gilroy, Tony Gilroy & Sanne Wohlenberg NYFF, LOND DIGGER (Warner Bros., Oct. 2) — Tom Cruise, Alejandro González Iñarritu & Mary Parent Dune: Part Three (Warner Bros., Dec. 18) — Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Patrick McCormick, Mary Parent & Denis Villeneuve The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix, Nov. 25) — Ceán Chaffin, David Heyman, Brad Pitt & Quentin Tarantino Heart of the Beast (Paramount, Sept. 25) — David Ayer, Marty Bowen, Olivia Hamilton & Brad Pitt I Play Rocky (Amazon/MGM, Nov. 13) — Christian Baha, Toby Emmerich & Peter Farrelly TIFF Madden (Amazon/MGM, Nov. 18) — Todd Black, Jason Blumenthal, Matthew Budman, David O. Russell, Jonathan Shukat, Steve Tisch & Colin Wilson Mr. Irrelevant (Paramount, Dec. 25) — Gillian Bohrer, David Ellison, Dana Goldberg, Don Granger, Jonathan Levine & Nick Santora Possible Love (Netflix, Oct. 23, THR review) — Lee Joon-dong, David Levine & Chadwick Prichard VENI, TIFF, NYFF, LOND The Social Reckoning (Sony, Oct. 9) — Stuart M. Besser, Todd Black, Peter Rice & Aaron Sorkin Werwulf (Focus, Dec. 25) — Tim Bevan, Garrett Bird, Robert Eggers, Eric Fellner & Sjón Sigurdsson Wildwood (Laika, Oct. 23) — Travis Knight LOND, AFI

Originally reported by Hollywood Reporter. Read the full story at the original source.