'You Can See Everything' A24 A NOTE FROM SCOTT It’s been a busy few weeks since the last update of the Feinberg Forecast. In that time, I finally saw — or was released to acknowledge having seen — almost all of the high-profile awards hopefuls that were not yet on the charts, among them Artificial, Mr. Irrelevant, Wildwood, NAZA, 14th and The Social Reckoning. At this point, the only biggies that are still off the books are Dune: Part Three, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth, Madden and Werwulf.
I also was on the ground at the Toronto, Zurich and Newport Beach film festivals (but unfortunately not at the New York, London or Middleburg film fests, which also took place since the last update), all of which attracted impressive showings of awards-contending talent. In Toronto and Zurich, I was able to get a stronger sense of how awards hopefuls are playing with non-American members of the Academy, which is of particular interest given the massive influx of Oscar voters based outside of the U.S. in recent years. There were Academy members numbering in triple-digits at both events, and the organization’s CEO was on hand for Zurich’s excellent Summit, the “Davos of the film industry.”
The Debut star Julianne Moore at the Zurich Film Festival with the Golden Icon Award that she was presented on Sept. 25 This past weekend, two important awards hopefuls debuted in theaters: A24’s You Can See Everything and Netflix’s La Bola Negra.
Unsurprisingly to any of us who caught its world premiere at the Telluride Film Festival, reactions to Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s Elizabeth Holmes documentary have been ecstatic. The film has a 99 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes and a 4.71 rating on Letterboxd, the latter a new record; it grossed an astounding $15 million in its opening weekend, the biggest debut from fewer than 1,000 locations since 2006’s Borat and the biggest doc debut since 2004’s Fahrenheit 9/11; and Academy members — even from the frustrating documentary branch — are flipping out for it.
Indeed, some Oscar voters saw it at an early L.A. screening at the Academy Museum on Oct. 6, after which doc branch members Ryan White and AJ Schnack described it on social media as “brilliant” and “incredible,” respectively, and short films/feature animation branch member Travon Free called it “one of the best things I’ve ever seen in my life.” Many other members turned out for its official Academy screening in L.A. on Oct. 18 — more, I’m told, than had ever previously turned out for a documentary — where it played through the roof.
For anyone wondering if the film is eligible for recognition beyond the best documentary feature Oscar category, I refer you to my Sept. 7 piece entitled “Nathan Fielder’s Off-the-Wall Elizabeth Holmes Doc Could Click With Academy — and Land Picture and Acting Noms,” and to the charts below.
You Can See Everything’s official Academy member screening in L.A. on Oct. 18 As for La Bola Negra, its theatrical debut came amid a tremendously turbulent period for Netflix, with layoffs impacting some 6 percent of the company’s workforce including chief content officer Bela Bajaria, film chief Dan Lin and Kelly Caton, the head of series awards strategy and publicity since 2019. In the face of this, Netflix’s formidable film awards team is forging ahead with the rollout of the Spanish-language epic that is their strongest contender this awards season. It is set for the longest exclusive theatrical window of any film in the company’s history, 47 days, and it is the first film for which the company is publicly reporting box office receipts. The initial numbers are very strong: La Bola Negra debuted in four theaters in L.A. and New York and scored the second-highest per-screen-average ever for a non-English-language film, $69,375, behind only 2019’s Parasite.
Emmy Rossum moderates a Q&A with the writers/directors and stars of La Bola Negra following a Sept. 10 screening in New York Following the fall film fests, there has been a huge uptick in events bringing together Oscar hopefuls and Oscar voters.
I recently moderated post-screening convos in L.A. with the likes of La Bola Negra’s Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, Elsinore’s Andrew Scott, Fjord’s Cristian Mungiu and Possible Love’s Jeon Do-yeon and Sul Kyung-gu. More excitingly for voters, other recent moderators have included Emmy Rossum (with the writers/directors and stars of La Bola Negra following a Sept. 10 New York screening), Greta Gerwig (with The Invite’s Olivia Wilde and Rashida Jones after a Sept. 27 London screening), Jessie Buckley (with Elsinore’s Andrew Scott, Simon Stone and Stephen Beresford following an Oct. 9 London screening) and Demi Moore (with Long Day’s Journey Into Night’s Jessica Lange after an Oct. 16 L.A. screening).
Jessie Buckley moderates a Q&A with Elsinore director Simon Stone, writer Stephen Beresford and star Andrew Scott following a screening in London on Oct. 9 The Academy hosted receptions in Toronto (on Sept. 11 for all of its members who are based there or happened to be in town for the Toronto International Film Festival), L.A. (on Sept. 17 for new members), the Bay Area (on Sept. 23 for new members) and London (on Oct. 10, during the London Film Festival, for new members). These attracted not only the invited members but also some familiar faces as those members’ plus-ones, such as Obsession’s Inde Navarrette and Curry Barker, Club Kid’s Jordan Firstman, Artificial’s Monica Barbaro and Andrew Garfield, Being Heumann’s Ruth Madeley, The Liberation’s Carrie Coon, Give Me the Ball! subject Billie Jean King and the whole La Bola Negra contingent — a somewhat cynical but effective way for Oscar hopefuls to get into rooms packed with Oscar voters.
Club Kid’s Jordan Firstman and Obsession’s Inde Navarrette and Curry Barker attend the Academy’s reception for new members in L.A. on Sept. 17 And this past Saturday night, countless Oscar hopefuls packed the Academy Museum of Motion Pictures in L.A. for the Academy Museum Gala, the Met Gala of the West Coast, which raised $14 million for the institution, and also provided a great opportunity to see and be seen by Oscar voters. Honorees included Michael’s Colman Domingo and The Odyssey’s Charlize Theron, and the featured performer was Taylor Swift, who is in Oscar contention for “I Knew It, I Knew You,” the Toy Story 5 original song that she co-wrote with Jack Antonoff, which was, not coincidentally, among the tunes featured in her four-number set.
Taylor Swift performs at the Academy Museum Gala in Los Angeles on Oct. 17. A few final notes about things that have happened since the last Forecast before we get to the latest one…
We exclusively broke several important developments related to awards classifications: Obsession’s submission for Golden Globes consideration as a musical/comedy, as opposed to a drama, and the lead versus supporting acting determinations for La Bola Negra, Paper Tiger, Possible Love and Tender Loving Care.
We’ve also posted new episodes of my Awards Chatter podcast — which I hope you’ll subscribe to, for free, on Apple or Spotify — with Penélope Cruz (La Bola Negra, Bunker and The Invite), Andrew Scott (Elsinore), John Leguizamo (The Odyssey) and Inde Navarrette (Obsession). This week, I’ll be posting a new episode with Jordan Firstman (Club Kid). And I’ll soon be posting two other episodes that I recorded over the weekend, in front of audiences at the Newport Beach Film Festival, with Aaron Sorkin (The Social Reckoning) and Emmy Rossum (Furious).
Finally, we’re about to take the podcast on the road and would love to see you if you happen to be in the neighborhood — at the Virginia Film Festival on Oct. 23 with Jessica Lange (Long Day’s Journey Into Night) and at the SCAD Savannah Film Festival on Oct. 25 with Danny Boyle (Ink). And if you’re in Savannah, don’t miss my annual ‘Docs to Watch’ panel, on Oct. 28, with the directors of 10 of the year’s most outstanding documentary features, including the man of the hour, You Can See Everything’s Nathan Fielder!
PLEASE NOTE The Feinberg Forecast aims to project what will happen, not to advocate for what should, and does not rank films that its namesake has not seen or that remain under embargo.
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Best Picture
Image Credit: Neon Frontrunners 1. The Odyssey (Universal, July 17, THR review) — Christopher Nolan & Emma Thomas 2. La Bola Negra (Netflix, Oct. 16, THR review) — Javier Ambrossi & Javier Calvo CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF, SANS, ZURI, LOND 3. You Can See Everything (A24, Oct. 16, THR review) — Maggie Ambrose, Tatiana Bears, Jack Davis, Nathan Fielder & Lance Oppenheim TELL, NYFF, CCDA 4. Elsinore (Focus, Nov. 20, THR review) — Carolyn Marks Blackwood, Mickey Liddell, Stefano Massenzi, Andrea Occhipinti, Andrew Scott, Pete Shilaimon & Gabrielle Tana TELL, TIFF, LOND, AFI 5. Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight, Nov. 6, THR review) — Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh & Anita Overland VENI, TELL, TIFF, SANS, ZURI, LOND, AFI 6. Artificial (Neon, Dec. 25, THR review) — Jeffrey Clifford, Jennifer Fox, Luca Guadagnino, David Heyman & Simon Rich NYFF, LOND 7. Project Hail Mary (Amazon/MGM, March 20, THR review) — Ryan Gosling, Phil Lord, Chris Miller, Rachel O’Connor, Amy Pascal, Aditya Sood & Andy Weir 8. Club Kid (A24, Nov. 6, THR review) — Alex Coco, Galen Core & Ryan Heller CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF, SANS, ZURI, LOND 9. Obsession (Focus, May 15, THR review) — James Harris, Haley Nicole Johnson, Christian Mercuri & Roman Viaris-de-Lesegno TIFF 10. The Invite (A24, June 26, THR review) — Ben Browning, Megan Ellison & David Permut SUND, SANS
Major Threats 11. I Play Rocky (Amazon/MGM, Nov. 13, THR review) — Christian Baha, Toby Emmerich & Peter Farrelly TIFF, ZURI, AFI 12. Fjord (Neon, Oct. 9, THR review) — Dyveke Bkørkly Graver, Cristian Mungiu, Andrea Berentsen Ottmar & Tudor Reu CANN, KARL, TELL, TIFF, NYFF, SANS 13. Possible Love (Netflix, Oct. 23, THR review) — Lee Joon-dong, David Levine & Chadwick Prichard VENI, TIFF, NYFF, SANS, ZURI, LOND, AFI 14. Michael (Lionsgate, 4/24, THR review) — John Branca, Graham King & John McClain 15. Tender Loving Care (Bleecker Street, Dec. 4, THR review) — Georgina Lowe TELL, TIFF, NYFF, SANS, LOND, AFI 16. All of a Sudden (Neon, Nov. 25, THR review) — Renan Artukmaç, Bettina Brokemper, Julien Deris, David Gauquié, Hiroko Matsuda, Jean-Luc Ormières, Kôsuke Oshida, Joseph Rouschop & Yûji Sadai CANN, KARL, TIFF, NYFF, SANS, LOND, AFI 17. NAZA (self-distributed, TBD, THR review) — Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor VENI, NYFF, SANS, ZURI, CCDA
Possibilities 18. Wildwood (Laika, Oct. 23) — Travis Knight LOND, AFI, AFI 19. Tenzing (Apple, Oct. 9, THR review) — Iain Canning, Luke Davies, Jennifer Peedom, Emile Sherman & Liz Watts TELL, TIFF, ZURI 20. The Debut (A24, Dec. 11, THR review) — Jesse Eisenberg, Ali Herting, Dave McNary & Emma Stone TELL, TIFF, NYFF, SANS, ZURI, LOND 21. Paper Tiger (Neon, Nov. 13, THR review) — James Gray, Anthony Katagas & Rodrigo Teixeira CANN, KARL, NYFF, LOND 22. Being Heumann (Apple, Nov. 6, THR review) — John W. Beach, Kevin Cleary, Sian Heder, David Permut & Kevin Walsh TIFF, LOND, AFI 23. Minotaur (MUBI, Nov. 20, THR review) — Charles Gillibert & Andrei Zvyagintsev CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF, SANS, ZURI, LOND
Long Shots 24. Mr. Irrelevant (Paramount, Dec. 25) — Gillian Bohrer, David Ellison, Dana Goldberg, Don Granger, Jonathan Levine & Nick Santora 25. Tuner (Black Bear, 5/22, THR review) — Michael Heimler, Teddy Schwarzman, JoAnne Sellar & Lila Yacoub TIFF, SUND 26. Sense and Sensibility (Focus, Oct. 16, THR review) — Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, India Flint & Jo Wallet 27. Rose (MUBI, Dec. 11, THR review) — Johannes Schubert, Karsten Stöter, Tobias Walker & Philipp Worm BERL, KARL, TELL, NYFF, LOND, AFI 28. Backrooms (A24, May 29, THR review) — ori Adelson, Peter Chernin, Michael Clear, Dan Cohen, Chris Ferguson, Dan Levine, Shawn Levy, Robert Patino, Osgood Perkins, Jenno Topping & James Wan 29. Josephine (Sumerian, Nov. 20, THR review) — Jesse Hope, Josh Peters & Max Walker-Silverman SUND, BERL, SANS, ZURI, LOND, AFI 30. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (Sony Classics, Oct. 16, THR review) — Leopold Hughes, Ben LeClair & Katie McNeill SUND, BERL, TELL, TIFF, NYFF, ZURI
Still to See or Under Embargo Dune: Part Three (Warner Bros., Dec. 18) — Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Patrick McCormick, Mary Parent & Denis Villeneuve The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix, Nov. 25) — Ceán Chaffin & Brad Pitt Madden (Amazon/MGM, Nov. 18) — Todd Black, Jason Blumenthal, Matthew Budman, David O. Russell, Jonathan Shukat, Steve Tisch & Colin Wilson Werwulf (Focus, Dec. 25) — Tim Bevan, Garrett Bird, Robert Eggers, Eric Fellner & Sjón Sigurdsson
