Awards Circuit Column: A billion-dollar Michael Jackson musical and Olivia Wilde’s A24 ensemble headline the hopefuls worthy of Oscar consideration from January through June.
Plus IconClayton Davis
Chief Awards Editor
byClaytonDavis See All
Lionsgate / Amazon MGM Studios / Focus Features / Getty The Oscar race is never won in June, but some would like it to be.
The first six months of 2026 have given us a moonwalking box office juggernaut that the critical class can’t stand and, more recently, an A24 ensemble dramedy that turns one tense evening into a poignant confessional. Lionsgate’s billion-dollar “Michael” and Olivia Wilde’s “The Invite” for A24 sit at opposite ends of the awards conversation. Together, they frame the question that will define the next six months until nominations are announced — and the three months after that until the winners are crowned: How much room does today’s Academy have for movies people actually went to see?
With Cannes, Sundance, SXSW and the first wave of summer releases now in the rearview, Hollywood has begun revealing the films, performances and crafts that could define the upcoming awards season. Some contenders have already exceeded expectations. Others are still awaiting their festival premieres or late-year releases before they can truly enter the conversation.
Alongside this look at the year’s first half comes the debut of Variety’s first official Oscar charts in the best picture category. Those will factor in what we’ve already seen, along with highly anticipated films expected to premiere on the fall festival circuit and a few potential surprises waiting in the wings. The most important thing to remember, however, is that it’s still early. These predictions will change — probably a lot — between now and nomination morning. The charts won’t be updated again until after Venice and Telluride, while the acting categories will make their season debut somewhere in between.
[Editor’s Note: To discuss the most significant number of movies, a film is only highlighted in one category, even though it could be in contention in multiple. Not all listed crew members are official. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, along with its various committees, ultimately determines the final credited artisans. For a film to appear on the list below, it must have had a U.S. release date between Jan. 1 and June 30.]
See all Academy Awards predictionsVariety Awards Circuit: Oscars
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Documentary Feature: ‘Ask E. Jean’
Image Credit: Abramorama Distributor: Abramorama Artisans: Ivy Meeropol (director, producer), Laura Bickford and Annabelle Dunne (producers)
Sitting at a perfect 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and freshly relevant thanks to renewed headlines around President Donald Trump, Ivy Meeropol’s documentary, which premiered at last year’s Telluride Film Festival, tracks the cultural shift in how we treat women who accuse powerful men. It is a portrait of a woman who decided it is always the right time to speak truth to power.
