NOW PLAYING
President Trump’s kingmaker status is holding strong more than halfway through this year’s primary cycle, with an almost blemish-free scorecard for his endorsees.
Trump’s endorsement record has been in part a successful revenge tour, as he has helped to oust several Capitol Hill incumbents who have long drawn his ire. And despite two notable setbacks last month, when the president’s picks lost out in the Iowa and Georgia gubernatorial races, he protected his score sheet by offering a rare double endorsement in South Carolina’s Republican gubernatorial runoff.
The primary results underscore the sway of the president’s “complete and total endorsement,” as he and his party grapple with low approval ratings and a future without Trump at the top of the ballot.
Here’s where Trump’s record stands with nearly 30 states’ primaries in the books:
Trump’s revenge tour ousts incumbents
Multiple longtime foes have fallen to Trump-backed rivals this cycle, marking major wins for the president’s apparent retribution campaign.
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who’s bucked Trump on some of his top issues, and Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who voted for Trump’s conviction in his second impeachment trial, are both on their way out of Capitol Hill.
In Texas, Trump initially stayed out of the contentious Senate GOP primary before backing state Attorney General Ken Paxton against Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in the runoff, arguing the incumbent “was not supportive of me when times were tough.”
While Cassidy appeared as a “marked man from the beginning” because of his impeachment vote, Cornyn “was not going to rock the boat” by going against Trump, said Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ.
In that sense, the Cornyn race “doesn’t quite fit in with the revenge tour narrative as much as some of these other races,” he added.
Still, Paxton won the runoff and will now face Democrat James Talarico, a state lawmaker, in the general election, which Democrats view as their best chance in decades to flip the red seat.
“At least in Texas, at least among Republicans, the Trump endorsement didn’t hurt. I think it actually helped … seal the deal and kind of push what was perceived to be a relatively close race, within maybe 5 points between Paxton and Cornyn, into a landslide,” said Jon Taylor, a political science professor at the University of Texas at San Antonio.
At the same time, Taylor questioned whether, as Trump sees underwater approval ratings in the Lone Star State and elsewhere, his endorsement could ultimately become “more of a hindrance than help” for Republicans in the general election.
Winning streak hits snags in gubernatorial races
Trump’s endorsement winning streak has hit a handful of snags, including in gubernatorial primary losses in Iowa and Georgia over the last few weeks.
In the Hawkeye State, Trump-backed Rep. Randy Feenstra (Iowa) lost the Republican primary to businessman Zach Lahn — and in the Peach State, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones lost a gubernatorial GOP runoff to billionaire and political newcomer Rick Jackson. Both races are considered critical toss-ups for this fall’s general election.
Though it’s still early to discern a pattern, experts note Trump’s notable losses have come in state-level races as opposed to federal contests.
“There could be something to the fact that the governors seem to be the main exception this time around,” Skelley said, though he added that “the candidates themselves matter a lot to this.”
“Folks have been kind of wondering if Trump’s endorsement is still going to be the gold standard, the absolute ticket to winning, and when it comes to endorsements for federal races, he’s done extraordinarily well,” said Scott Huffmon, a political scientist at Winthrop University in South Carolina.
“The gold foil has peeled off a little bit on Trump’s endorsements when it comes to state races.”
Trump hedges bets with runoff double endorsement
In South Carolina, a key early state in the presidential nominating calendar, Trump endorsed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette (R) in a crowded May primary for governor.
But a game-changing Trump bump never materialized for Evette, who advanced to a GOP runoff alongside state Attorney General Alan Wilson.
Last week, Trump announced on Truth Social that he couldn’t “hurt one of them by only Endorsing the other” and issued a rare dual endorsement for both Evette and Wilson ahead of the runoff.
The move protected Trump’s endorsement record — as Wilson clinched the party’s nod in Tuesday’s contest.
“The co-endorsement is Trump not wanting to notch up a lot, partially, and you know, if you endorse all candidates, then you can’t lose,” Huffmon said.
Skelley observed that, in the cases where Trump’s endorsee lost out, the winner “might actually be a better fit for sort of the Trumpian mode.”
That may not be precisely the case in South Carolina, Skelley said, “but it just strikes me that the ones where his endorsed candidate lost … the other candidate who did win, that candidate does seem to often have, you know, pretty clear MAGA ties.”
“Trump wins either way, in a sense, at least in terms of his influence on the party.”
Eleventh-hour endorsement moves shake up races
Trump issues hundreds of endorsements each election year, putting a spotlight on races he’s staying out of or leaving in suspense.
Some of Trump’s endorsements have come as eleventh-hour decisions, injecting energy into races even where early voting had already begun.
The Texas Senate race and the South Carolina gubernatorial race were two recent examples. He also made a last-ditch endorsement days ahead of the Senate primary in Georgia, backing Rep. Mike Collins (R) in the runoff to take on Sen. Jon Ossoff, who’s seen as the most vulnerable Senate Democrat in the country this cycle. Collins won the nod.
“As is typical of him, he waits until he sees that somebody’s going to actually win the thing, or there’s a perception that person is going to win, and then he manages to endorse, so that’s why he looks all of a sudden really good on his, on his winning percentage,” Taylor said of the president.
Trump’s candidates grapple with midterm outlook
Even as Trump revels in his series of primary wins, his party is struggling with a bleak midterm outlook. Republicans are up against the traditional headwinds that put a sitting president’s party at a disadvantage in the midterm cycle — plus dissatisfaction with the party brand and divides within Trump’s “Make America Great Again” base.
Enduring voter frustration over the economy has sunk Trump’s approval rating to roughly 20 points underwater, hitting second-term lows.
“I’m still not convinced that Trump’s endorsements are worth anything outside the Republican primary, especially, I mean, in states where you’re seeing declining approval numbers for Trump,” Taylor said.
Many of Trump’s favored candidates who won their primaries are on track to easily win the office they’re aiming for this fall.
Others, however, are facing bitter general election fights that could decide control of Capitol Hill — like the Texas Senate race, where Republicans are working overtime to defend their red stronghold.
“I think if we see candidates who Trump pushed really strongly in the primary lose in the 2026 election, then we definitely might see the Trump endorsement no longer be the gold standard,” Huffmon said, adding that diminished endorsement power on Trump’s part could also impact whoever is deemed his successor come 2028.
Welcome to The Hill’s On The Ballot. We’re Julia Mueller and Caroline Vakil — reach out to us on X (@jmthewriter + @CarolineVakil) or via email ([email protected] + [email protected].)
ON ENDORSEMENTS
Carlos Osorio/Associated Press Former DNC chair’s PAC focused on rural voters makes first slate of endorsements:
Former Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chair Jaime Harrison’s political group focused on turning out rural voters, Dirt Road Democrats PAC, is making its first slate of endorsements as the midterms ramp up.
Harrison told The Hill in an exclusive interview that the political group would be backing the Senate bids of former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) in North Carolina and former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) in Alaska in addition to backing House candidates Chris Jones in Arkansas, Shannon Taylor in Virginia and Jamie Ager in North Carolina.
The PAC is expecting to make a $5,000 contribution to each candidate, with Harrison noting that the group plans to announce more endorsements in the coming weeks. Dirt Road Democrats PAC hopes to fundraise $1 million this midterm cycle.
“This first round endorsement is focusing on some races that we think are really crucial for us to take back the majority in the House and Senate, and races that we think can be competitive if they have the resources,” Harrison told The Hill.
Read more first from The Hill here.
ON OUR WATCH
AP Photo/Ryan Murphy Top campaign stories to keep an eye on:
- Huge progressive wins in New York have sparked debate about the future of the Democratic Party. Read more from The Hill’s Niall Stanage.
- “The Great American State Fair’ celebrating the U.S.’s 250th anniversary kicked off in Washington, D.C. Here’s what you need to know from The Hill’s Sarah Davis.
- An affiliate group of the conservative Club for Growth Action rolled out a new ad attacking Republican Kansas gubernatorial candidate Vicki Schmidt. Read more from Caroline.
CAMPAIGN DIET
As the midterm cycle heats up, we’re asking folks in the elections space what they’re consuming on and off the campaign trail. Kyle Kondik is the managing editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
What’s the last book you read?
Dominic Sandbrook’s biography of Eugene McCarthy. McCarthy was an important figure in American history who had a frankly sad ending to his time in public life.
What’s your snack of choice?
Cheese, if I have it around. It’s important for my health not to have it around!
What album or podcast do you have on repeat?
Gram Parsons’ “GP.” I am currently re-listening to the History of Rome podcast. I have hit my middle-aged dad “Rome phase,” having already exhausted World War II when I was in high school and college.
What’s your go-to caffeine source?
Lots of black coffee, every day.
What TV show are you watching right now?
Pro sports.
What’s your go-to restaurant?
I live in Washington but I’m from the Cleveland area, so I will go with Big Al’s Diner in Cleveland, which is just down Larchmere Blvd from my favorite bookstore, Loganberry Books
ON THE BALLOT
AP Photo/Matthew Hinton The races on our watch:
Republican voters in Louisiana will head to the polls Saturday after the Senate GOP primary moved to a runoff last month.
Outgoing Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.) and state Treasurer John Fleming are duking it out for the party’s nod after incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) was ousted in the May primary. Letlow, who is backed by President Trump, is the favorite heading into Saturday.
On the other side of the aisle, farmer Jamie Davis and consultant Gary Crockett are jockeying for the Democratic nomination. The Republican winner is expected to easily defeat the Democrat in November.
Next week, voters in Colorado will weigh in on a series of primary contests, including the race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Jared Polis.
Sen. Michael Bennet and Attorney General Phil Weiser will square off Tuesday in the closer than expected Democratic primary for the governor’s mansion.
All eyes are also on the battleground 8h Congressional District outside Denver, where Republican Rep. Gabe Evans will learn his Democratic opponent. State Reps. Shannon Bird and Manny Rutinel are showing down for Democratic nod in the race Cook Political Report deems a tossup.
ON THE TRAIL
The events on our calendar:
- June 25: President Trump attends a tele-rally for Louisiana Republican Senate candidate Rep. Julia Leltow
- June 25-27: Texas hosts Democratic convention in Corpus Christi, with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) as the keynote speaker
- June 25-27: Road to the Majority holds conference at Washington Hilton, with speakers including President Trump, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) and more
- June 27: Louisiana holds primary runoff elections for Senate
- June 27: Florida GOP holds FL-19 and FL-25 debates
- June 30: Colorado holds primary elections
WHAT WE’RE READING
Our open tabs:
- Democrats’ great Alaskan hope (The Atlantic)
- The ‘mad scientist’ behind Graham Platner’s scandal-plagued rise (The Wall Street Journal)
- She’s in line to be mayor of D.C. How will she handle Trump’s threat? (The New York Times)
- Will Texas’ new top voting official be a ‘disruptor’? Locals are preparing for it (NPR)
- Influencers: Turns out their not so influential at the ballot box (Vanity Fair)
Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Comments: Link copiedMore On The Ballot News
See All
On The Ballot On the Ballot: Black lawmakers on track to lose record gains in representation next year by Caroline Vakil and Julia Mueller 1 week ago On The Ballot / 1 week ago 
