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Congress is slated to lose more than a dozen Black members between both parties in 2027 after representation reached an all-time high on Capitol Hill just last cycle.
The Supreme Court’s landmark decision in April to weaken the Voting Rights Act has played a leading role in this seismic deficit. The ruling, which made it easier for states to redraw House districts without considering race, paved the way for several Black Democrats to lose their seats in the South.
Meanwhile, a different dynamic has played out on the other side of the aisle. Most Black Republicans in the House opted to leave the chamber for higher office, while Rep. Burgess Owens (R-Utah) declined to seek reelection to avoid a primary against a fellow Republican.
This unusual confluence of factors — mid-decade redistricting, retirements and bids for higher office — is set to seriously erode the House’s delegation of more than 60 Black lawmakers after years of gains.
“I believe in diversity to the extent that all persons should be represented when critical decisions, important decisions, decisions that will impact the lives of our country are made, so it’s going to be felt,” said outgoing Rep. Al Green (D), whose Texas House district was dismantled by Republican redistricting last year.
“It’ll be noticed,” he added.
Black Democratic lawmakers, including Green as well as Reps. Emanuel Cleaver (Mo.), Jasmine Crockett (Texas), Marc Veasey (Texas), Christian Menefee (Texas), Shomari Figures (Ala.) and Cleo Fields (La.) were all impacted by the national redistricting war first ignited in Texas by President Trump last year.
While Menefee is set to return to Congress, new lines implemented by the Texas Republicans forced the first-term lawmaker and Green into an awkward member-on-member match up. Menefee handedly beat Green in a runoff last month.
Cleaver, Figures and Fields still are in danger of losing reelection this November while Crockett left her House seat for an unsuccessful Texas Senate bid and Veasey retired.
“There’s no doubt about the Supreme Court’s ruling in Louisiana v. Callais will go down as one of the most disastrous rulings for Black political representation in modern history,” said former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), who is Black and poised to return to Congress this fall.
Patrice Willoughby, the NAACP’s chief of policy and legislative affairs, went so far as to describe the current political moment as “the third Reconstruction.”
Black Republicans, however, are framing the exodus from Congress, at least within their own conference, differently.
Owens, the Republican congressman, is departing Capitol Hill after court-ordered redistricting reduced the number of Republican-favored seats from four to three. GOP Reps. Wesley Hunt (Texas), Byron Donalds (Fla.) and John James (Mich.), meanwhile, all opted to run for higher office.
Hunt lost his primary bid for Texas Senate, but Donalds and James are seen as top contenders for gubernatorial races in Florida and Michigan, respectively. Donalds argued these exits are a positive development, stating “what’s really happening is members are choosing now not to stay in Congress for the rest of their lives.”
“I think that’s a good thing. Actually, I think that’s healthy,” Donalds said. “I think that’s not just indicative of Black members, I think that’s indicative of all members.”
Yet, Democrats are sounding the alarm over the shrinking amount of Black lawmakers on Capitol Hill. The Congressional Black Caucus warned last month that a third of its members were at risk of losing their seats due to Republican-led redistricting.
“We need a voice in that room being able to say specifically for our community this is what we need,” Allred said.
Amid these Democratic anxieties, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) projected confidence that the party will flip the House in November and fight back against GOP-led redistricting.
“There will be a significant number of Congressional Black Caucus members who remain in Congress,” Jeffries told The Hill last week. “We are going to battle the Republican gerrymandering that’s taken place in the South and the return to Jim Crow-like tactics, but [at the] same period of time, picking up additional seats in other parts of the country.”
Donalds, who lauded the Supreme Court’s weakening of key provisions of the Voting Rights Act, pointed out that Black Republicans, like himself, have successfully represented areas that are majority-white.
“There is no need in the United States for racial gerrymandering,” he told The Hill. “I think if you look at the Republican Party, we’ve been able to elect Black members who don’t live in majority-Black districts.”
Welcome to The Hill’s On The Ballot. We’re Julia Mueller and Caroline Vakil — reach out to us on X (@jmthewriter + @CarolineVakil) or via email ([email protected] + [email protected].) Sign up for your weekly rundown on the latest news from the campaign trail here.
ON REDISTRICTING
Aaron Schwartz/Bloomberg via Getty Images Florida Democrat comes under fire for running in majority Black district:
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) decision to run in the 20th Congressional District in Broward County has irked some Black Democrats in Florida.
Wasserman Schultz, who currently represents the 25th district, jumped into the race after Florida Republicans redrew the state’s House maps to favor the GOP. The seat, which has been long held by Black Democrats, was left open by Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who resigned from Congress in April.
The move sparked outrage from some fellow Democrats because Wasserman Schultz currently resides in the redistricted 22nd district — not the 20th.
“The right thing to have done is run for 22,” former Broward County Mayor Dale Holness, who is running in the 20th district, said. “That is what is in the best interest of the people that she is working to represent, not take the easy way out.”
Cook Political Report rates the 22nd district as leaning toward the GOP, while the seat representing the plurality Black 20th district will almost certainly remain in Democratic hands.
“Her being in Congress does not make her an incumbent in this district,” Elijah Manley, a Black Democrat and organizer running against Wasserman Schultz, added. “It’s just a level of disrespect that I think we should call out.”
Wasserman Schultz has defended her decision to run in the district, pointing to her track record of serving Broward County.
“I have spent my whole adult life fighting for Broward County, and I want to continue to make life more affordable for the families in CD20 who are stretched to the breaking point by the Trump MAGA agenda,” she said in a statement last week.
Notably, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) has not yet said if he’ll endorse her reelection bid in the new district. Some of Wasserman Schultz’s colleagues, however, have defended her decision to run for the Broward County-based seat.
“She has a right to run, and the citizens have a right to consider her as the candidate to represent them,” Rep. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.) told The Hill last week.
ON OUR WATCH
Top campaign stories to keep an eye on:
- Republicans are embracing Graham Platner as a new boogeyman in their fight to hold on to the Senate this fall, Julia and The Hill’s Amie Parnes report.
- Georgia Republicans opted to table redistricting despite Brian Kemp’s call for a special session to mull new House lines for 2028. Read more from Julia.
- Gavin Newsom views President Trump’s Justice Department investigation as a political gift ahead of 2028, Amie reports.
CAMPAIGN DIET
Photo by Finn Gomez/The Boston Globe via Getty Images As the midterm cycle heats up, we’re asking folks in the elections space what they’re consuming on and off the campaign trail.
David Hogg leads the Leaders We Deserve PAC and previously served as vice chair of the Democratic National Committee. He also co-founded March for Our Lives.
What’s the last book you read?
“Master of the Senate” by Robert Caro
What’s your snack of choice?
Cosmic Crisp Apple
What album or podcast do you have on repeat?
Pink Pantheress’s “Fancy That”
What’s your go-to caffeine source?
Iced tea
What TV show are you watching right now?
Just finished rewatching “Breaking Bad”
ON THE BALLOT
(Evan Vucci, Associated Press) The races to watch next week:
Next week, our eyes are on New York, Maryland and Utah as voters cast their ballots in a handful of hotly contested House primaries, plus closely watched runoffs in South Carolina.
In the Empire State, Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) is set to fight for his political life this fall. He’ll learn his opponent Tuesday in the race for the purple Hudson Valley 17th Congressional District , which that is viewed as one of Democrats’ best pickup opportunities this cycle.
Jostling for the Democratic nod are special operations combat veteran Cait Conley and Rockland County legislator Beth Davidson, among others.
In midtown Manhattan’s 12th Congressional District, Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) is set to retire after three decades in Congress, teeing up a crowded race. Democrat Jack Schlossberg, grandson of President John F. Kennedy, is in the mix – along with former Republican attorney George Conway, state Rep. Alex Bores and New York Assemblymember Micah Lasher, who has Nadler’s endorsement.
The Democratic primary winner is expected to easily take the seat this fall.
In the North Country 21st Congressional District, the race is on to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik (R), who briefly ran for governor and is retiring from Congress. State Assemblyman Robert Smullen is backed by much of Republican establishment, but Trump is supporting custom sticker company CEO Robert Constantino in the GOP primary.
Races in and around the Big Apple could also serve as a test of endorsement power for Democratic socialist mayor Zohran Mamdani.
In lower Manhattan’s 10th Congressional District, for example, Mamdani has backed former NYC comptroller Brad Lander — while New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is supporting incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman (D).
In Maryland, longtime Rep. Steny Hoyer’s (D) retirement kicked off a crowded race to succeed him in the 5th Congressional District, with two dozen Democrats in the running. In the 6th Congressional District, former Rep. David Trone (D) is fighting to reclaim his old seat from Rep. April McClain Delaney (D) after Trone mounted an unsuccessful Senate bid in 2024.
Voters in Utah will also get a chance to pick their candidates in a new blue-dot district around Salt Lake City, the product of court-ordered redistricting in the state. It’s a wide-open race for the new, solidly blue seat in the 1st Congressional District, while Rep. Blake Moore (R) is now running in the 2nd.
And Rep. Celeste Maloy (R), who represented the old 2nd District, faces a primary challenge from former state lawmaker Phil Lyman in the new 3rd District.
South Carolina is also holding primary runoffs on Tuesday, and all eyes are on the governor’s race.
Lt. Gov. Pam Evette (R-S.C.) and South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson are squaring off in hopes of replacing outgoing Gov. Henry McMaster (R) in the solidly Republican governor’s mansion. Evette has Trump’s endorsement, and a runoff win could mark another victory for his primary scorecard — but The Washington Post reported this week that Trump is considering endorsing both candidates in a bid to hedge his bets.
ON THE TRAIL
The events on our calendar:
- June 18: Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani hold a rally for House candidates in Brooklyn
- June 19: Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) speaks in South Carolina for Democrats’ “On the Road” series
- June 23: Maryland, New York and Utah host primary election while South Carolina holds primary runoffs
- June 25-June 27: Texas Democratic Party holds annual convention
WHAT WE’RE READING
Our open tabs:
- The next Black president (Vanity Fair)
- Defamation claims and AI ads — inside the messy GOP race for Utah’s 2nd District (Deseret News)
- Do internet superstars matter in elections? (NPR)
- Few voters casting early ballots in NYC primaries that will test Mamdani’s power (Gothamist)
- AI deepfakes are getting weirder and harder to spot in the midterms (The Wall Street Journal)
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