Oklahoma vs. Baylor odds, prediction, time: 2026 Crown tournament semifinal picks by proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears and revealed its college basketball picks for this Crown tournament 2026 semifinal matchup on Saturday in Las Vegas

A spot in the 2026 College Basketball Crown tournament title game is on the line when the Oklahoma Sooners battle the Baylor Bears on Saturday. Oklahoma is coming off a 90-86 overtime win over Colorado, while Baylor downed Minnesota 67-48 in Wednesday's quarterfinals. The Sooners (20-15), who tied for 11th in the SEC with Auburn at 7-11, have won seven of their last eight games. The Bears (17-16), who tied for 13th in the Big 12 at 6-12, have won two of their last three. 

Tipoff from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is set for 1:30 p.m. ET. The Bears are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Baylor vs. Oklahoma odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 158.5. The winner will play either West Virginia or Creighton in the title game. Before making any Oklahoma vs. Baylor picks, check out the Oklahoma vs. Baylor predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 Final Four on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks.    

Now, the model has simulated Oklahoma vs. Baylor 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for Baylor vs. Oklahoma:

Baylor vs. Oklahoma spread:    

Baylor -1.5

Baylor vs. Oklahoma over/under:    

158.5 points

Baylor vs. Oklahoma money line:    

Oklahoma -112, Baylor -107

Baylor vs. Oklahoma picks:    

Baylor vs. Oklahoma TV:

FOX

Top Baylor vs. Oklahoma predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Baylor vs. Oklahoma, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (158.5 points). The Over has hit in three of the last five Oklahoma games, and in 18 of 35 games this season. The Over has also hit in six of the past 10 Baylor games, as well as 17 of the past 32 games. The Over also hit in 13 of the past 16 Bears games against teams averaging 72 or more points.

The model projects the Sooners to have four players who will score 11.3 or more points, led by Nijel Pack, who is projected to score 17.7 points. The Bears are expected to be led in scoring by Cameron Carr, who is projected to score 19.9 points, one of five Baylor players to score 10 or more points. The Over clears in 53% of simulations. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make Oklahoma vs. Baylor picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Oklahoma vs. Baylor 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits in more than 50% of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Baylor vs. Oklahoma, and which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Baylor vs. Oklahoma spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.