IMF head warns Middle East war will lead to higher inflation and slower global growth
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Oil prices continued to climb on Tuesday above $110 a barrel amid a deadline imposed by Donald Trump for Iran to open the strait of Hormuz or be “taken out,” with the US president threatening to order attacks on Iranian power plants and bridges.
The markets are back on a Trump-imposed countdown clock. To use a sporting analogy, it’s red time, and the result could go either way. Like a fortnight ago when the first threats from the Trump administration to attack Iranian power plants and other infrastructure were made, the markets are plonked at a crossroad, facing a binary outcome, at least in the short term.
Either the attacks happen, marking a possibly catastrophic escalation where regional energy assets and civilian infrastructure across the Gulf is considered fair game. In such an instance, the energy complex jumps, pushing the US Dollar and global yields higher, and equities and non-yielders like gold lower. Or there’s a backdown, even better, a ceasefire, and the markets stage an epic relief rally, where a plunge in oil takes yields and the US Dollar with it, and equities and gold rip.
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