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Mohit Kumar of investment bank Jefferies remains hopeful that the US and Iran are moving towards a peace deal, despite the re-closure of the strait of Hormuz:
Markets are in a risk off mode this morning as tensions have escalated with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz and US blockade still in place. US seized an Iran cargo ship and Trump threatened to destroy power plants and bridges in Iran. Tensions have also escalated between Israel and Hezbollah with the killing of two Israeli soldiers and attacks on Southern Lebanon. This follows constructive talks last week, where US and Iran were moving towards a deal and Iran had agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Our view remains that we are moving towards a deal. Not because we believe that US and Iran have found a solution, but because of the MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) principle. We are at a stage where it is not in the interest of either parties to carry on with the war. The MAGA base of Trump does not war to continue and Trump wants a deal. For IRGC, the objective is survival and destruction of infrastructure and economic hardship could sow the seeds of rebellion down the line. For Israel, the main objective is the weakening of Hezbollah and would not hinder a US Iran deal.
Recent developments can be framed in two ways: either five steps forward towards peace and three back (seems more apt than three and two), or as evidence that the two sides remain far enough apart that a lasting deal will be extremely hard to achieve and markets have become far too optimistic. I lean more towards the former, but the comparison with recent history is uncomfortable.
Remember the 10%+ S&P 500 rally in the early weeks of the war in Ukraine, when hopes briefly grew of an early negotiated settlement, only to be disappointed. That episode is a clear warning sign.
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