The Middle East conflict has disrupted shipping. Photograph: Kyodo/ReutersThe Middle East conflict has disrupted shipping. Photograph: Kyodo/ReutersOil price drops amid hopes of US-Iran peace dealCommodity poised for one of biggest monthly declines, while global stock markets rally
Oil prices fell on Friday as investors hoped for the end of the US-Israel war on Iran, leaving the commodity poised for one of the biggest monthly declines ever.
The price of Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, fell by 1.3% to $91.54. Brent is heading towards one of its biggest monthly drops ever as it nears a fall of 17% since the start of May.
The price of futures for West Texas Intermediate, the North American benchmark, fell by 1.4% on Friday morning to $87.64 a barrel. That was down 7% from the peak earlier this week of $94.70.
The optimism came after Donald Trump circulated a draft peace agreement for the war in Iran among allies.
The US news site Axios reported the US and Iran had reached a tentative deal to extend a ceasefire by 60 days, although it added that Trump had yet to agree to the terms. The US vice-president, JD Vance, said a deal was “not there yet” but “very close”.
The war in Iran has lasted 90 days and has caused chaos across the global economy after Iran responded by effectively closing the strait of Hormuz to shipping. That shut off a large proportion of exports from the Gulf, one of the world’s key oil-producing regions.
While the US initially aimed at regime change in Iran, its ambitions appeared to have been scaled back to reopening the strait, as well as reaching a deal to prevent Iran from building a nuclear bomb.
Henry Allen at Deutsche Bank said markets were showing “mounting optimism about an end to the conflict”. He added: “With oil prices coming down, that’s meant investors have started to price out the more stagflationary outcomes for the global economy, with a clear rally across multiple asset classes.” The phrase stagflation refers to the damaging combination of stagnation in GDP growth and inflationary price increases.
Markets across Asia rallied strongly. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2.5% and Korea’s Kospi gained 3.6%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained 0.9%, although the performance of stocks in mainland China was more muted. The Shanghai CSI 300 fell by 0.45%.
In Europe the UK’s blue-chip FTSE 100 index opened about 0.1% higher on Friday morning, while the broader Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.3%.
It followed a gain of 0.6% on the US S&P 500 index on Thursday, which pushed the most widely followed American stock index to another record high. The yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds fell to 4.45%, continuing a decline as investors welcomed the potential for lower inflation. Yields move inversely to bond prices, which rose as investors bought more.
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