Ohio State vs. TCU odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes and revealed its college basketball picks for this NCAA Tournament 2026 first-round matchup on Thursday

The ninth-seeded TCU Horned Frogs battle the eighth-seeded Ohio State Buckeyes in the first round of the NCAA Tournament East regional on Thursday. TCU is coming off a 78-73 loss to the Kansas Jayhawks in the Big 12 Conference Tournament on Thursday, while Ohio State dropped a 71-67 decision to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament on Friday. The Horned Frogs (22-11), who placed sixth in the Big 12 at 11-7, have won six of their last seven games. The Buckeyes (21-12), who were eighth in the Big Ten at 12-8, have won four of their last five.

Tipoff from Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, S.C., is set for 12:15 p.m. ET. Ohio State leads the all-time series 4-0, but the teams have not played since 1969. The Buckeyes are 2.5-point favorites in the latest Ohio State vs. TCU odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 146.5. The Buckeyes are at -139 on the money line (risk $139 to win $100). Before making any TCU vs. Ohio State picks, check out the men's college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has simulated TCU vs. Ohio State 10,000 times and just revealed its men's college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several men's college basketball odds and men's college basketball betting lines for Ohio State vs. TCU:

TCU vs. Ohio State spread:    

Ohio State -2.5

TCU vs. Ohio State over/under:    

145.5 points

TCU vs. Ohio State money line:    

Ohio State -139, TCU +117

TCU vs. Ohio State picks:    

TCU vs. Ohio State TV:

CBS

Top TCU vs. Ohio State predictions

After 10,000 simulations of TCU vs. Ohio State, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (145.5 points). The Over has hit in each of the last two TCU games, and in four of the last five Ohio State games. TCU is 8-2 against the spread in its last 10 games. Ohio State, meanwhile, is 5-0 ATS in its last five.

The model projects the Horned Frogs to have three players score 10.6 points or more, including David Punch, who is projected to score 13 points. The Buckeyes are projected to have five players score 10.6 points or more, led by Bruce Thornton, who is projected to score 21.6 points. The model is projecting 151 combined points as the Over clears in well over 60% of simulations. 

How to make Ohio State vs. TCU picks

The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Ohio State vs. TCU, and which side of the spread hits well over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.