Ohio State vs. Iowa betting preview: Odds, picks, predictions for college football Week 5 showdown

The 14th-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes look to pull off another big win in Big Ten action Saturday when they host the No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes at Kinnick Stadium. Iowa (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) scored a touchdown on the final play as the Hawkeyes took down then-No. 14 Michigan in their conference opener Saturday in The Big House. The Buckeyes (3-1, 1-0) were the nation's top-ranked team before a 24-23 loss at Texas in Week 2, a win that vaulted the Longhorns to the No. 1 spot. OSU has won seven of the past eight meetings, including a 35-7 rout in Columbus in the most recent matchup in October 2024. We are taking an in-depth look at Ohio State vs. Iowa and some of the college football bets you can make at top sports betting apps for this Big Ten showdown. Bet on Ohio State vs. Iowa in Week 5 at DraftKings and get $150 in bonus bets when you spend $5+:

Kickoff in Iowa City is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, Oct. 3. The Buckeyes are 14-point road favorites in the latest Ohio State vs. Iowa odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Over/Under for total points set at 45.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, has crunched the numbers, and we have its insights on the game. You can also see picks from our experts for every college football Week 5 matchup. The model enters Week 5 on a 32-24 run on all top-rated college football picks at the best betting sites, returning nearly $600 for $100 players.

Ohio State vs. Iowa betting odds (via DraftKings)

Ohio State vs. Iowa betting preview

The Buckeyes shouldn't be surprised by anything the Hawkeyes do, and the visitors have designs on getting back to the College Football Playoff. OSU lost to Miami in the quarterfinals last season, but quarterback Julian Sayin has a full season under his belt and he's throwing to the current Heisman Trophy favorite, receiver Jeremiah Smith. The junior has at least 150 receiving yards in three of the four games (he had 85 in a rout of Kent State). That includes 217 in last week's 42-19 victory against Illinois, when Ohio State outgained the Illini 527-134. Sayin threw for 364 yards and four touchdowns, all to Smith. The quarterback also ran for 29 yards, while running backs Ja'Kobi Jackson and Bo Jackson both topped 50 as the Buckeyes rushed for 151. 

The OSU offense leads the Big Ten in total yards per game, averaging almost 100 yards more than Iowa (522-429), while both of these defenses are tough to crack. Iowa leads the Big Ten in allowing just eight points per game, while OSU yields 12.3 (fifth). The Buckeyes led the nation in scoring defense over the full season in 2025 (9.3 per game) while Iowa was eighth in FBS (16.1), so this is a continuation of that dominance. The Buckeyes have seven sacks, led by Riley Pettijohn and Kenyatta Jackson Jr. with two each, and six takeaways. Ten defensive players have at least 10 tackles, led by safety Earl Little Jr.'s 23. Jackson is part of a stacked defensive line that had 35 sacks last season (T-21 in FBS) and helped the defense lead the nation against the pass, allowing less than 130 yards per game.

The Hawkeyes also are built on defense, as they are 10th in the nation in yards allowed (239.8 per game), while OSU is 27th (274.3). The Wolverines did manage to outgain the Hawkeyes 429-285, but Iowa got a key interception at their own 2-yard line in the third quarter. UM scored twice in four trips to the red zone, while Iowa scored on both drives inside the 20. Quarterback Hank Brown got off to a slow start but rallied the Hawkeyes to get his first road victory as a starter. Braeden Jackson's 99-yard kickoff return surely made a huge difference, but Brown completed 13 of his final 19 passes. Brown is completing 68% of his passes with 700 passing yards and five TDs on 97 attempts. The Hawkeyes also have four running backs with at least 125 rushing yards, led by Kamari Moulton with 293, He is averaging 7.3 yards per carry, while Jackson averages a team-high 9.3 and Xavier Williams averages 8.8 and has three TDs on just 16 carries. Iowa has nine sacks, led by end Joseph Anderson with two, and the defense has taken the ball away six times.

Iowa is 12-4-1 against the spread since the start of last season, going 5-0-1 ATS against ranked teams and 2-0 ATS as a home underdog. The Buckeyes are 13-4-1 ATS since the beginning of 2025, including the College Football Playoff, 5-1 ATS as the road team and 8-3 ATS in Big Ten games. OSU is 7-11 to the Over during that same span, with all six road games and all six against ranked opponents going Under. Iowa is 10-7 to the Under since the beginning of last season, with six of their 10 home games over that span coming in Under the total. Use the FanDuel promo code to get $250 in bonus bets for Ohio State vs. Iowa and more college football Week 5:

Ohio State vs. Iowa picks, prediction

Iowa +14

The SportsLine model's best grade on this matchup is a "B" on the Hawkeyes money line because of the huge plus-money payout. They are winning in 25% of the model's simulations and covering the spread at a 51% rate. Both defenses are legit, so this will be a battle. While the OSU offense has a ton of talent, the Iowa defense should be able to disrupt the Buckeyes enough to keep it close. No matter the size of the payout, I wouldn't put anything on Iowa to beat one of the top national title contenders, but playing at home and boasting one of the nation's best defenses gives Iowa a great chance at covering a two-touchdown spread.