North Carolina vs. VCU odds, time March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated VCU Rams vs. UNC Tar Heels and revealed its picks for this NCAA Tournament 2026 first-round matchup on Thursday

The 11th-seeded VCU Rams face the sixth-seeded UNC Tar Heels in the first round of the NCAA Tournament South Region on Thursday. VCU is coming off a 72-60 win over Dayton in the A-10 tournament championship game on March 15, while UNC lost to Clemson 80-79 in the ACC Tournament on March 13th. The Rams (27-7) have won 16 of their last 17 games under first-year coach Phil Martelli Jr. The Tar Heels (24-8), who have lost two straight, placed fourth in the ACC at 12-6 in league play. The Tar Heels will be without star freshman forward Caleb Wilson, who is out for the season following surgery for a broken thumb. UNC has turned to Henri Veesaar, who is averaging 16.7 points and 8.7 rebounds per game in Wilson's absence. 

Tipoff from Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, S.C., is set for 6:50 p.m. ET on March 19. This is the first match-up between the two schools ever. UNC is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest North Carolina vs. VCU odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 151.5. Before making any VCU vs. North Carolina picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model, check out the men's college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the NCAA tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has simulated VCU vs. UNC 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted men's college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several men's college basketball odds and men's college basketball betting lines for VCU vs UNC:

VCU vs. UNC spread:    

UNC -2.5

VCU vs. UNC over/under:    

151.5 points

VCU vs. UNC money line:    

UNC -141, VCU +119

VCU vs. UNC picks:    

VCU vs. UNC TV:

TNT

Top VCU vs. North Carolina predictions

After 10,000 simulations of VCU vs UNC, SportsLine's model is going Under on the total (151.5 points). The total has gone under in five of VCU's last five games. The total has also gone under in five of the Tar Heels' last seven games.

The model projects the Rams to have two players score 12.6 points or more, including Terrence Hill Jr., who is projected to score 13.3 points. The Tar Heels are projected to have three players score 10.3 points or more, led by Henri Veesaar, who is projected to score 16.4 points. The model is projecting 153 combined points as the Under clears in 52.4% of simulations. 

How to make North Carolina vs. VCU picks

The model also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins VCU vs. UNC, and which side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.