NIT quarterfinals Parlay of the Day: In unexpected home game, Dayton should oust Illinois State, head to Indy

CBS Sports and SportsLine expert Matt Severance looks at Wednesday's NIT game featuring Illinois State at Dayton.

The University of Dayton hasn't hosted an NIT matchup since 2010 when it faced Illinois State. That drought will end Wednesday at 7 ET when the second-seeded Flyers get a very unexpected home game in the NIT quarterfinals as they welcome … No. 4 Illinois State. The winner earns a trip to historic Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis for an April 2 semifinal matchup vs. Nevada or Auburn, who face off in a game tipping off after this one Thursday.

It isn't all Dayton's fault that it hasn't hosted an NIT game in 16 years. It's the fault of the NCAA Tournament and the Ohio High School Athletic Association mostly. 

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The former because since the birth of the First Four in 2011, those games have been played in Dayton's gym on the Tuesday and Wednesday before the official start of the big tournament. Those are also the days NIT first-round games are played, so UD couldn't host then. The latter as the OHSAA has hosted state semifinal and championship games at UD Arena in recent years that prevented the Flyers from hosting NIT games. In 2022 and 2025, they would have hosted a second-round game if not for the high school hoops.

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Dayton (25-11, 17-19 ATS), which lost in the Atlantic 10 Tournament title game to VCU, has been mega-impressive in its two road games in this year's event, winning by 14 at Bradley and by 19 at CAA regular-season champion UNC Wilmington. The Flyers are a veteran group, and junior De'Shayne Montgomery became the fourth player this season to reach 1,000 career points last time out vs. UNC Wilmington. Montgomery's 77 steals are third in school history and seven shy of the single-season mark.

Under coach Anthony Grant, Dayton is always a good defensive team and ranks fifth in the Atlantic 10 at 69.5 PPG. It hasn't allowed 80 or more since Feb. 18 and has surrendered 70 points or fewer in six straight. UD's defense ranks No. 30 in the country in adjusted efficiency at 99.6. It leads the Atlantic 10 and ranks 24th in the NCAA in turnovers forced per game (14.31), while ranking No. 37 in steals (8.72 per game). 

When scoring at least 70 points, Grant's club is 21-6, compared to 4-5 when not. The team total Wednesday is 73.5. Dayton also gets to the foul line more frequently than team nationally. When leading with five minutes left in regulation, it is 23-0. When trailing: 1-9. 

Wake Forest was the top seed of this NIT region but was knocked off by Illinois State as a 7.5-point home favorite, 78-75, in Round 2, That handed this hosting opportunity to Dayton (14-3 SU at UD Arena) and gave its four seniors one last home game when it was thought that happened in a 68-62 loss to VCU back on March 6. 

The Redbirds' Johnny Kinziger hit the go-ahead 3-pointer with two seconds left to beat the Deacons. ISU trailed by nine in the second half but beat its first ACC team since December 2006. The school has won two games in the NIT for the first time since the 1995-96 season but has never reached the semifinals. It is on a five-game postseason tournament winning streak after capturing the 2025 College Basketball Invitational, which is not being played this year. That winning streak is tied for the longest in Division I with Chattanooga, which won the 2025 NIT but didn't make the 2026 postseason.

Illinois State (22-12, 18-15 ATS) is led by junior forward Chase Walker, a Columbus, Ohio, native, who was named first-team All-Missouri Valley to become one of just four players in program history to have been named first team twice in their careers with the school. Walker is two points away from 1,000 for his career.

Ty'Reek Coleman is one of 25 players in the country this season to own shooting splits of at least .495/.400/.700, while averaging 10 or more points per game and one of just three freshmen on the list. Coleman's 329 points this season are the fifth-most by a freshman in program history, and he trails fourth place by six points. 

The Redbirds have had nine different players lead the team in scoring this season, tied for the second most in Division I. Their team total is 65.5, about 10 below their season average.

ISU coach Ryan Pedon is an Ohio native who played college basketball at Wooster, worked as a graduate assistant and assistant at Miami of Ohio from 2000-10 and was an assistant at Ohio State from 2017-22 before getting this gig.

Again, I don't put a ton of stock into results vs. common opponents but we have a fairly recent one for both in Bradley, with Dayton winning by 14 at the Braves in Round 1 (UD hadn't played a Valley team since the 2019-20 season), while ISU split two vs. Bradley.

Dayton leads this all-time series 4-3, but the schools haven't played since December 2013. 

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DraftKings single-game parlay (-125)

• Dayton ML
• Alt Under 146.5

I look for a second straight NIT parlay win after Saint Joseph's covered at New Mexico last night and the game stayed Under that alternate total. For this, the SportsLine Projection Model has Dayton prevailing 74-71, while Haslem has it 72-65. KenPom ranks UD No. 64 overall and ISU at No. 97 and gives the Flyers a 74% shot of winning. Check out NIT and other expert picks in the daily newsletter.