When it comes to training camp storylines, quarterback battles take center stage. This summer, we have a handful of battles to sink our teeth into, ranging from Atlanta, Minnesota, Cleveland and Las Vegas. On top of those battles, there are also a few signal callers in precarious positions. Their jobs are necessarily at risk, but they have plenty to prove to put themselves on a stronger footing.
Below, we take the temperature of the four quarterback battles currently underway, highlighting the latest updates from camp, plus give our prediction of who we see coming out on top. Then, we'll put the spotlight on a handful of veteran quarterbacks who aren't in a battle, but need to watch their backs.
Four QB battles to watch
Kyler Murray vs. J.J. McCarthy
Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy are entrenched in a head-to-head competition for the Week 1 job in Minnesota. To begin camp, Kevin O'Connell split the reps between the two signal-callers, but Murray does appear to be gaining momentum as of late. Murray showcased his best practice of camp on Saturday, according to a wide array of reports at Vikings camp, including ESPN's Kevin Seifert. Most importantly, he was on the field for 16 of the first team offense's 22 snaps on 11-on-11 drills, per Seifert. He also completed all three of his passes to Justin Jefferson during the session, which is a key rapport metric to monitor. As for McCarthy, who did get more snaps over Murray during Friday's session (32 vs. 26 in full-offense drills), didn't have as successful a practice on Saturday as Murray.
While that's the up-close view of this battle, at a more macro level, it's hard not to see Murray coming out on top. McCarthy is coming off a 2025 season, his first as the full-time starter, where he struggled mightily. He went 6-4 over his 10 starts and completed 57.6% of his passes, averaged 163.2 passing yards per game, and registered 11 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. His 72.6 passer rating ranked last among qualified quarterbacks. While McCarthy did seem to find his footing down the stretch (4-0 record with a 100.4 passer rating), that didn't stop Minnesota from signing Murray as a free agent. While Murray has a shaky injury history (has missed 30 of a possible 68 games over the last five seasons), his talent provides a much higher upside for O'Connell's offense.
Prediction: Kyler Murray wins the Week 1 job.
Tua Tagovailoa vs. Michael Penix Jr.
The Falcons technically have a quarterback battle on their hands between Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr,, but it hasn't exactly been a slugfest. Why? Well, injuries have gotten in the way of this being a true competition. Of course, the most notable injury surrounds Penix, who is still rehabbing from a torn ACL he suffered in Week 11 last season. New coach Kevin Stefanski said last week that Penix is still not cleared for full team activities, which means he cannot take part in 11-on-11 drills. Penix also provided an update to reporters, and the timeline isn't encouraging for his chances to secure the Week 1 gig. He noted that it could be another four weeks before reaching the next stage of his rehabilitation. If you tack that into the calendar, Penix is looking at being cleared by the end of August, meaning he'd likely miss all of the preseason. Under that scenario, it's hard to imagine him truly pushing Tagovailoa.
Speaking of Tagovailoa, he also was not on the field last week due to a reported back injury. Stefanski described the injury as minor and the former Dolphins quarterback "will be out there sooner rather than later." Under different circumstances with a healthy Penix, this could've been a pocket for Tagovailoa to lose some ground. Instead, it won't really move the needle.
Prediction: Tua Tagovailoa wins the Week 1 job.
Deshaun Watson vs. Shedeur Sanders
In Cleveland, first-year coach Todd Monken is mulling whether to name Deshaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders the starter for the Browns in 2026. Through the early days of camp, it doesn't appear as though either quarterback has truly endeared himself. Watson has thrown multiple interceptions in two of the four practice days, according to The Athletic. Despite that, Monken tipped his hand in favor of Sanders, continuing to split the reps between the two with the first-team offense.
As a rookie, Sanders went 3-4 for the Browns, and the passing metrics leave little to be desired. For the season, he completed 57% of his passes, threw seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and posted a 68.1 passer rating. Since his debut in Week 11, Sanders threw an NFL-high 10 picks. That said, Sanders has noted this summer that he feels much more comfortable heading into his second season, so that could help level out those numbers amid this battle with Watson.
As for Watson, he hasn't played since tearing his Achilles in Week 7 of the 2024 season. He also suffered another tear in that same Achilles tendon during his rehab, which resulted in him missing the entire 2025 season. In all, he's played in just 19 games over the last four seasons since coming over to the Browns in that blockbuster trade with the Texans. While he's shown plenty of rust over the course of camp thus far, it does seem like Monken is giving him the space to shake it off and, at times, feels like he has the inside track at the job.
Prediction: Deshaun Watson wins the Week 1 job.
Kirk Cousins vs. Fernando Mendoza
As we look to Las Vegas, it's less of a quarterback competition and more of a philosophical approach with how the Raiders want to handle the development of Fernando Mendoza, who they selected with the No. 1 overall pick at the 2026 NFL Draft. Klint Kubiak has stated that he believes the best way to usher a young quarterback into the NFL is to bring him along slowly and not start him in the game. The ideal approach is to have an established veteran begin the year and then eventually hand the keys over to him when he's ready.
The Raiders have an established veteran on the roster in Kirk Cousins, and he's been the top quarterback throughout the offseason. That includes Kubiak putting Cousins out there as QB1 on the first day of training camp to work with the first-team offense. Even if Mendoza takes training camp by storm, Kubiak's path for the young quarterback could lead to him starting his career as Cousins' backup. That said, it's only a matter of time before the Mendoza era begins in Sin City.
Prediction: Kirk Cousins wins the Week 1 job.
Veteran QBs that need to watch their back
Baker Mayfield TB • QB • #6 CMP%63.2YDs3693TD26INT11YD/Att6.8 View Profile Mayfield isn't in danger of losing his starting job, but his future with the Buccaneers beyond 2026 is murky at best. The veteran enters the final year of his contract and, after the two sides were unable to come to terms on an extension by his self-imposed deadline, negotiations are over. Now, Mayfield is focusing on the upcoming season, which could very well be his last in Tampa, especially after he acknowledged publicly that he felt "disrespected" by the organization.
This adds another layer of pressure for Mayfield, who is looking to rebound after his worst statistical season since becoming the Bucs starter. The 31-year-old is not only now tasked with bringing the Buccaneers back to the playoffs after an 8-9 campaign in 2025 snapped their streak of five-straight postseason appearances, but he's also again forced to prove his worth for a new contract (either with the Bucs or some other team as he eyes free agency in 2027).
Jacoby Brissett ARI • QB • #7 CMP%64.9YDs3366TD23INT8YD/Att6.94 View Profile After sitting out for the bulk of the offseason program as he sought a revised contract, the Cardinals agreed on a reworked deal with Brissett that will pay him up to $21 million in 2026, including $15.5 million guaranteed. While Brissett got his desired contract, it doesn't guarantee that he'll start the entire season for Arizona. The veteran will almost certainly be the Cardinals' QB1 to begin the 2026 campaign, but the franchise does have rookie Carson Beck waiting in the wings. The club selected the Miami quarterback in the third round of the draft this offseason, and will likely want to see what they have in him at some point. That's especially true if the season goes awry and they are in line for a top pick at the 2027 NFL Draft. Before pivoting to another young quarterback, they'll want to do their due diligence and see Beck as the starter. The only way for Brissett to fend off that scenario is to win, and after going 1-11 in his 12 starts last season, that seems unlikely in a daunting NFC West.
Geno Smith NYJ • QB • #7 CMP%67.4YDs3025TD19INT17YD/Att6.75 View Profile Geno Smith is back in East Rutherford for his second stint as the Jets quarterback. Considering that the other quarterbacks on New York's roster are Brady Cook, Bailey Zappe, and fourth-round rookie Cade Klubnik, Smith's lane to begin the season as the starter is clear. Similar to Brissett in Arizona, however, Smith could find himself on the bench at some point in 2026, specifically if they fall out of the playoff race. Then, they'd maybe want to see Klubnik as the starter before embarking on an offseason where they possess three first-round picks. New York ranked last in passing yards per game (140.3) last season, and that should almost certainly improve with Smith in 2026. How much it'll prove, however, depends on whether he's closer to his Seattle version or to the version we saw last season with the Raiders, which had him toss a league-high 17 interceptions. The most important element for Smith to keep the starting job is to stack wins. If he doesn't and New York pulls the plug on coach Aaron Glenn -- who arguably has the hottest seat in the league -- it could result in Klubnik coming in as the organization reevaluates everything.
Malik Willis MIA • QB • #2 CMP%85.7YDs422TD3INT0YD/Att12.06 View Profile Malik Willis heading to Miami was the worst-kept secret in the league after the Dolphins hired Jon-Eric Sullivan as general manager and Jeff Hafley as coach. Those two arrived in South Beach from Green Bay, where they worked with Willis, who made various spot starts in place of the injured Jordan Love. Willis impressed in those small showings and now gets the keys to the Dolphins' offense after inking a three-year, $67.5 million contract this offseason. Given that contract, he'll be the wire-to-wire starter for Miami in 2026. However, Willis is still in the midst of a make-or-break year for his long-term future under center. If the Dolphins struggle this season (and they currently have the second-best odds to have the fewest wins at +350), it'll result in them having a high selection at the 2027 NFL Draft, which is expected to be loaded with top-tier quarterback prospects. Even if Willis delivers just an average year as the full-time starter and the wins simply don't materialize, it could be enough for them to bring someone in with that first-rounder. He needs to leave no doubt he's the guy, which is a lofty (albeit necessary) bar to meet.
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