NFL offseason grades for the NFC, plus teams with the easiest path to the playoffs and AFC East win totals

Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

It's Memorial Day, and although most people are out of the office, I'm in the office, because this newsletter isn't going to write itself. And to be honest, that's probably for the best, because if it did write itself, I'd be out of a job. There's probably an AI joke in there somewhere, but I'm too lazy to make it. 

As always, here's your reminder to tell your friends to sign up for the newsletter. It makes the perfect graduation gift and that's mostly because it's free. Alright, let's get to the rundown. 

1. NFL offseason grades for all 16 NFC teams

We closed out last week by handing out offseason grades in the AFC, and now we're going to flip things around by grading every team in the NFC. From free agency to trades to the draft, it's been a busy offseason -- and that's what each team will be graded on. 

We put Tyler Sullivan in charge of handing out the grades, and here's what he came up with for four different NFC teams (one from each division):

NFC EAST: Cowboys -- A-

• Notable additions: S Caleb Downs, EDGE Malachi Lawrence, EDGE Rashan Gary, LB Dee Winters, S Jalen Thompson, CB Cobie Durant, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling 
• Notable departures: DT Osa Odighizuwa, WR Jalen Tolbert

Takeaway: The Cowboys defense was abysmal in 2025, and they've done a good job this offseason trying to rectify it. After allowing the most passing yards in the league, they went out and deployed top resources to improve the unit, drafting safety Caleb Downs and edge rusher Malachi Lawrence in the first round. This comes after signing safety Jalen Thompson and corner Cobie Durant in free agency. Dallas also traded for linebacker Dee Winters during the draft, adding another veteran piece.

NFC NORTH: Packers -- C-

• Notable additions: DT Javon Hargrave, LB Zaire Franklin, CB Brandon Cisse, K Trey Smack, WR Skyy Moore 
• Notable departures: QB Malik Willis, WR Romeo Doubs, EDGE Rashan Gary, LB Quay Walker, OT Rasheed Walker, OL Elgton Jenkins, WR Dontayvion Wicks

Tyler's takeaway: It doesn't feel like Green Bay got noticeably better this offseason. The Packers made moves along the defense, adding Hargrave, Franklin and Cisse, but none of those exactly move the needle. Meanwhile, they lost Quay Walker, who led the team in tackles last season, and Rashan Gary, who was second behind Micah Parsons in sacks. When you throw in the loss of defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley (hired as the Dolphins' head coach), the defense could take a bit of a step back. 

NFC South: Panthers -- B+

• Notable additions: OT Rasheed Walker, OT Monroe Freeling, C Luke Fortner, WR Chris Brazzell II, LB Devin Lloyd, EDGE Jaelan Phillips, DT Lee Hunter 
• Notable departures: RB Rico Dowdle, DT A'Shawn Robinson, OL Austin Corbett

Takeaway: Carolina went hard in free agency to improve its defense, signing two of the top players on the market in EDGE Jaelan Phillips (four years, $120 million) and LB Devin Lloyd (three years, $45 million). That's a steep price for two defenders, but both should be immediate difference makers.

NFC West: Seahawks -- C-

• Notable additions: RB Jadarian Price, S Bud Clark, EDGE Dante Fowler Jr., S Rodney Thomas II, DB Noah Igbinoghene 
• Notable departures: RB Kenneth Walker III, S Coby Bryant, EDGE Boye Mafe, CB Riq Woolen

Takeaway: They can sleep soundly knowing they are about to unveil a Super Bowl banner in September, but the offseason saw more talent exit than enter for the defending champs.

Sullivan graded ALL 16 NFC teams, and if you want to see the other 12 grades, check those out here.

2. NFL teams with the easiest path to the playoffs in 2026

There are 14 playoff spots in the NFL, and we might have already identified five of the teams that will be filling those spots in 2026. Carter Bahns went through each schedule and found clubs with the easy paths to the postseason. 

Let's check out three of the teams on his list: 

• Lions. The NFC North will be tough, but a majority of Detroit's non-divisional games come against bottom-dwellers. In total, it will play 10 contests against teams in the bottom half of Pete Prisco's post-NFL Draft power rankings.
• Saints. With a comfortable schedule and a wide-open division also working in his favor, Tyler Shough might find himself quarterbacking in the playoffs. While the Saints boast the NFL's second-easiest schedule, each of the three other NFC South teams faces an average slate strength of No. 20. Not only is New Orleans in a division where no team posted a winning record last year, but it also stands to benefit from those other squads facing more daunting roads. Those two factors working together set the stage for a climb to the top of the standings.
• Ravens. First-year coach Jesse Minter could not ask for a much smoother on-ramp into his new job. His opening seven games -- at Colts, vs. Saints, at Cowboys, vs. Titans, at Falcons, at Browns and vs. Bengals -- will come against teams that didn't make the playoffs last year. A few project to be better in 2026, but none are bona fide Super Bowl contenders. Furthermore, even though they reside on one coast, the Ravens will not have to travel much. They rank a modest 21st in miles traveled, and the Brazil game does the heavy lifting there. Even more telling is the fact they will play just two games outside the Eastern Time Zone all year, and neither comes with more than a one-hour time difference.

If you want to know who else made the cut, we've got that here. 

3. Biggest questions facing second-year players

The second year of an NFL player's career is usually a pivotal one. If he showed promise during his rookie year, then the team wants to see that carry over into Year 2. On the other hand, if a player struggles, then teams want to see some improvement.

For most players, there's a lot riding on Year 2. With that in mind, Jared Dubin took a look at some of the biggest questions facing players headed into their second year. 

Q: Did the Titans get enough help for Cam Ward?  Dubin: Ward had one of the worst supporting casts in the NFL last season. His pass-catchers couldn't get open and struggled to actually catch the ball when they did. The offensive line was seemingly broken for most of the year. Tennessee addressed the first part of that equation by signing Wan'Dale Robinson and drafting Carnell Tate with the No. 4 overall pick. But did the Titans do enough on the offensive line to make sure Ward has enough time to find his targets down the field? We'll find out in September. 

Q: Can Emeka Egbuka emerge as the No. 1 receiver in Tampa Bay?  Dubin: Egbuka got off to a scorching start, catching 25 passes for 445 yards and five touchdowns in his first five games. Over his final 12 games, he caught "just" 38 balls for 493 yards and one score. He'll be counted on as Baker Mayfield's top target this year with Mike Evans decamping for San Francisco. He wasn't ever the top target at Ohio State. Can he be one in the pros?

Q: Will the Patriots keep Will Campbell at tackle?  Dubin: For most of his rookie season, Campbell was a solid if relatively unspectacular left tackle, but after suffering a knee injury that kept him out for about a month, Campbell struggled badly. He finished dead last out of 81 qualified tackles in pass-blocking grade and allowed 15 pressures in four games. His short arms meant people were skeptical of his ability to stick at tackle, and the struggles down the stretch exacerbated those concerns. We'll find out quickly how much of those struggles were injury-related and how much were about him perhaps needing to play another position. 

Dubin asked a total of 16 questions, and if you want to check out everything he had to say, you can see his full story here. 

4. Joe Burrow's Super Bowl prediction might not be as crazy as it sounds

At this point in the offseason, it's safe to say there's no one more confident about their team than Joe Burrow. Last week, during the quarterback's first press conference of the offseason, he casually predicted that the Bengals are going to win the Super Bowl. 

"We're gonna go win a lot of games this year, and play great, and win a Super Bowl." 

With the Bengals coming off a 6-11 season, the prediction might sound crazy, but after breaking it down, I think Burrow might be on to something here:

• They have the third-easiest strength of schedule in the NFL. Last year, the Patriots had the third-easiest strength of schedule going into the season, and they rode that to a 14-3 record and a Super Bowl appearance. 
• The oddsmakers also like Cincinnati's schedule: The Bengals are favored in 15 of their 17 games, which is the second-most of any team. Only the Rams, who are favored to win 16 games, are favored to win more. 

I also found a few other things I like about the Bengals' schedule: 

• They face a new head coach in nine of their 17 games, which is more than half their schedule. 
• They face the NFC South, which is arguably the weakest division in the NFL. Not only did BOTH Super Bowl teams last year (Patriots and Seahawks) face the NFC South during the regular season, but so did BOTH Super Bowl teams in 2024 (Chiefs and Eagles). Those four teams went a combined 13-3 against the NFC South. If the Bengals go just 3-1 against the NFC South, that likely puts them in a spot where they have to go just 7-6 in their other 13 games to make the playoffs. 
• The Bengals only have five games against teams that made the playoffs last year -- Steelers twice, Texans, Jaguars and Panthers -- and three of those will come in the first four weeks of the season (at Houston in Week 2, at Pittsburgh in Week 3, vs. Jacksonville in Week 4). This sets up a situation where the Bengals could get hot over their final 13 games. 

With ALL OF THIS in mind, I went through and predicted the Bengals' entire schedule and came up with a final record of 12-5. If you want to know how I came up with that, you can read my game-by-game predictions here. If you don't feel like reading, I get it, and I have some good news: I also broke the schedule down on CBS Sports HQ, and that prediction is available on YouTube here. 

I'm not sure if I'm willing to go as far as Burrow and predict this team to win the Super Bowl, but the Bengals certainly feel like a dark horse to win it all. They have one of the best offenses in the NFL, their defense should be much better and they got handed one of the easier schedules in the league. All of that should add up to at least a playoff appearance, and if that doesn't happen, it might be time for Zac Taylor to go. Basically, it's a boom-or-bust season in Cincinnati. 

5. AFC East win totals: Patriots in for rude awakening in 2026

With America in the middle of a three-day weekend, Jordan Dajani suddenly had some free time on his hands, so he decided to fill it by predicting every over/under in the AFC, starting with the AFC East. 

Let's check out whether Dajani likes the over or under for each team in the division: 

New England Patriots Odds: Over 10.5 (+125) / Under 10.5 (-150) Dajani's take: Two things can be true: You can be a fan of Drake Maye's talent and Mike Vrabel's defense, while also agreeing that the Patriots are poised to take a step back in 2026. New England is set to play the sixth-toughest strength of schedule after playing a slate in 2025 that was the easiest by any team since the turn of the millennium. They also have the toughest Weeks 1-4 strength of schedule entering a season by any team in 40 YEARS, according to CBS Sports Research. There's a Super Bowl rematch against the Seahawks to start the year, then the Steelers in New England Week 2, followed by back-to-back road games against the Jaguars and Bills. All four teams made the playoffs last year. Dajani's lean: Under 10.5 (-150)

Miami Dolphins Odds: Over 4.5 (-110) / Under 4.5 (-110) Dajani's take: The Dolphins and Cardinals have the lowest preseason win totals this season at 4.5, and two of the toughest schedules in the NFL as well. The Dolphins are beginning anew with a new coach (Jeff Hafley), general manager (Jon-Eric Sullivan) and quarterback (Malik Willis). Maybe Jeff Hafley can get the most out of his new players, but I'm not taking the Over on this win total. Dajani's lean: Under 4.5 (+110)

If you want to see how Dajani feels about the Bills and Jets, you can get his take on those two teams here. 

6. Extra points: Cardinals might have a QB problem

It's been a busy past few days in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything, I put together a quick roundup for you.

• Jacoby Brissett not close to new deal with Cardinals. The veteran QB wants a serious raise, and it looks like he's not going to show up to OTAs until that happens. According to ESPN, the two sides are "significantly" far apart on a new deal, so Brissett might not be around the Cardinals' facility anytime soon. It doesn't seem like Brissett has a ton of leverage here. The Cards do have Gardner Minshew on the roster and just drafted Carson Beck, so instead of giving Brissett a raise, they could turn to one of those two quarterbacks and save their money. It will certainly be interesting to see how this plays out.
• Abdul Carter clears the air with Jaxon Dart after calling out his QB over Trump introduction. Dart introduced President Donald Trump at a rally in New York on Friday, and that didn't sit well with Carter, who called out his QB on social media. "Thought this sh!t was AI," Carter wrote after seeing the video of Dart. "What we doing, man?" At some point over the weekend, the two 2025 first-round picks eventually made up, but it's worth checking out all the details of this story, and we have those here.  
• Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift show up at NBA playoff game. Travis Kelce is from Cleveland, so he decided to show up and support his hometown Cavaliers during their game Saturday against the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals. Kelce and Taylor Swift sat courtside, and at one point, the Chiefs tight end chugged a beer on camera. He was able to down the thing in about seven seconds. The Cavs ended up losing 121-108, but Kelce got plenty of cheers. And if you want to see him chug a beer, you can do that here. 
• Johnny Manziel wins MMA debut. The former NFL quarterback has found a new career. Johnny Football decided to enter an MMA ring on Saturday and actually won his debut with a win by TKO in the first round over podcaster and influencer Bob Menery. The fight was only about two minutes long, and you can see the closing 50 seconds of action here. (If you click over, just keep in mind there are some NSFW words used in the broadcast.) Now that he's 1-0, it sounds like Manziel is heading for retirement from the ring. "This was good enough for one time," Manziel said after the match, via ESPN.