The NFC South was the worst division in the NFL this past season, but it turned into an epic race that saw three teams finish with an 8-9 record. Thanks to a four-game win streak from the Atlanta Falcons and a disastrous 2-7 stretch from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it was Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers that earned a home playoff game.
The Panthers became the fifth team in NFL history to win their division with a losing record, and the first team to make the playoffs twice with a losing record. Still, 2025 was a step in the right direction. The Buccaneers looked like the favorite in the division for most of the year but finished 8-9. It snapped their streak of five straight playoff appearances and put head coach Todd Bowles on notice.
The Falcons registered their eighth-straight losing season in 2025 despite boasting weapons like Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts on offense. This offseason, they brought back Matt Ryan to serve in the front office and hired two-time NFL Coach of the Year, Kevin Stefanski. Then, there's the New Orleans Saints. They were expected to be the worst team in the NFL, but instead went 6-11 and had a surprising Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist in quarterback Tyler Shough. The second-round pick went 5-4 as the starter, winning just as many games as all other Saints rookie quarterbacks all-time.
Now that the full 2026 NFL schedule is here, let's dissect the 2026 win totals for each NFC South team, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Atlanta Falcons: Over/Under 6.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
If you don't have a quarterback, you don't have a chance. And it remains to be seen if the Falcons have a quarterback. Michael Penix Jr. is coming off the third torn ACL of his career, so the Falcons brought in Tua Tagovailoa to battle him for the starting job. It's tough to feel optimistic about either player.
Penix is 4-8 as the starter in his two seasons, and owns the highest bad-throw percentage (24%) in the league, according to Pro Football Reference. Tagovailoa, on the other hand, threw a career-high 15 interceptions with the Miami Dolphins in 2025 and is 12-13 as the starter over the last two years. There's no arguing that he's regressed after signing his massive extension. Miami had to work to get out of this offseason.
I imagine this season for the Falcons will be about riding Bijan Robinson. He solidified himself as one of the premier running backs in the NFL last year with a franchise-record 2,298 yards from scrimmage on 366 total touches. Still, will he be enough to make up for the quarterback play? Drake London and Kyle Pitts have the potential to be game-changing weapons, but how effective can they really be without an effective point guard?
You can't blame Kevin Stefanski for everything that went down in Cleveland, but at the same time, he hasn't won more than five games in a season since 2023. The Falcons have gone under their preseason win total in seven of the past eight seasons, and I'll take the under here as well.
Verdict: Under 6.5
Carolina Panthers: Over/Under 7.5 (Over +110, Under -130)
The Panthers are expected to have the toughest schedule out of any team in the NFC South, but they also arguably had the best offseason of their rivals. They splurged for pass rusher Jaelan Phillips, who registered the fourth-highest pressure rate in the NFL last season, and found a steal in Pro Bowl linebacker Devin Lloyd, who recorded six total takeaways for the Jacksonville Jaguars last year. Then in the draft, Carolina reinforced the offensive line with Monroe Freeling in the first round, drafted a defensive playmaker in Lee Hunter in the second round and found a 6-foot-4 speedster at receiver in Chris Brazzell II in the third round.
All eyes are on quarterback Bryce Young as he looks to lock down a long-term, lucrative extension. Some will never believe in him due to his stature and lack of natural gifts, but I think he showed last year that he can be a starting quarterback. The former No. 1 overall pick does have a limited ceiling, but do you need a physical freak to contend in this league? The Panthers can repeat as divisional champs if Young has enough support around him. His offensive line finished top 10 in pass-blocking efficiency at PFF last season. The supporting cast of weapons is solid yet not great, with Tet McMillan leading the way. But the defense could be what gets Carolina to at least 8-9. The Panthers have difference-makers at all three levels there.
Verdict: Over 7.5
New Orleans Saints: Over/Under 7.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
The Saints are a huge question mark. On one hand, Tyler Shough was the most impressive rookie quarterback in the NFL, and New Orleans upgraded his weaponry with Travis Etienne and first-round pick Jordyn Tyson. Chris Olave is also coming off a career year. On the other, the Saints lost a few important pieces on defense, such as defensive lineman Cameron Jordan, cornerback Alontae Taylor and linebacker Demario Davis. Even at 6-11, the Saints were better than expected in 2025. Will they continue to move in the right direction?
The Saints put together one of the most underrated drafts this year. Just to mention a few players, Tyson at No. 8 overall could be the top receiver in the class if he can stay healthy, Christen Miller at No. 42 overall is a run-stuffer, Bryce Lance at No. 136 overall has the size, speed and traits of a starting wideout and TJ Hall is a willing contributor in defending the run who also led the Big Ten with 10 passes defensed last year.
The Saints have the benefit of playing the second-easiest schedule in the NFL this season, behind only the Cleveland Browns, based on opponents' combined 2025 records. I'm going to lean toward the over for New Orleans, but a few things will have to change in 2026. The Saints can't rank last in the NFL in red-zone TD percentage (44.4%) again and have to score more than 18 points per game.
Verdict: Over 7.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over/Under 8.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
There's a reality where the Buccaneers shake off what happened in 2025 and take their rightful place atop the NFC South once again, or there's a legitimate changing of the guard that will become clear in the coming months.
Baker Mayfield looked like an MVP favorite early in the year, throwing 12 touchdowns and just one interception in the first six games, but he finished throwing 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in the final 11 games. His 217.2 passing yards per game and 26 passing touchdowns ranked the fewest since joining the Bucs in 2023. Now, he's going through his fourth offensive coordinator change in as many years and has lost his trusted No. 1 wideout, Mike Evans. The Bucs have gone 4-8 without Evans over the last two seasons.
The Buccaneers defense hasn't finished in the top half of the league in three straight years now, and they lost legendary linebacker Lavonte David and cornerback Jamel Dean. I'm not exactly bullish on the Bucs entering 2026, and I find it fascinating that Vegas isn't either. Tampa Bay is plus money to finish with a winning record!
Verdict: Under 8.5
Odds to win the NFC South in 2026
TeamOddsBuccaneers
+160
Saints
+265
Panthers
+310
Falcons
+450
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