When does the March Madness 2026 schedule start, and when are 2026 NCAA Tournament brackets due? The 2026 March Madness bracket begins on Thursday, March 19
By Owen OBrien Mar 18, 2026 at 10:40 pm ET • 3 min read 
Imagn Images The 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket begins with the first round on Thursday and there's an intriguing matchup early with No. 6 Louisville taking on No. 11 South Florida in the East Region. Both teams play up-tempo and are heavily dependent on the 3-point line for offense. The 6 vs. 11 matchups are sources of March Madness upsets, so will South Florida be one of the 2026 March Madness Cinderella teams worth watching?
Identifying potential 2026 NCAA Tournament upsets is crucial in putting together winning 2026 March Madness bracket picks. Hitting a handful of double-digit seeds to win in the first round can help set your 2026 March Madness bracket apart, while going overboard could sink you early. Before you make your 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the 2026 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Two years ago, SportsLine's computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida. Last year, SportsLine's computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including calling both 9-seeds that advanced in the first round, No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis, and No. 6 BYU advancing to the Sweet 16. The model has beaten over 91 percent of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past seven tournaments.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn's championship run in 2024. It nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 and correctly predicted all four Final Four teams a year ago.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks. You shouldn't even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.
Top 2026 March Madness bracket upset picks
One South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 9 Iowa defeats No. 8 Clemson in the first round. Both of these teams are pretty solid defensively, ranking top 30 in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency and top 30 in points allowed per game. However, Iowa does appear to have the edge offensively, due in large part to Drake transfer Bennett Stirtz. After earning Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year honors last season, Stirtz followed head coach Ben McCollum to Iowa and has continued to score at an impressive rate. He shot 49.2% from the floor and 37.6% from the 3-point line while scoring 20.0 points per game and Iowa ranked 31st in adjusted offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Clemson ranked 71st and didn't have anybody on its roster average more than 11.9 points per game.
Another South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 10 Texas A&M knocks off No. 7 Saint Mary's. The WCC was strong this season, with Gonzaga, Saint Mary's and Santa Clara all earning bids. However, the Gaels did feast on lesser competition throughout the season, going 1-4 in Quad 1 games and getting run out of the gym in a neutral-site game against the only SEC opponent that they played (Vanderbilt).
Texas A&M put a pretty clear emphasis on tempo in Bucky McMillan's first year at the helm, ranking ninth in the nation in points per game (87.7) and 11th in possessions per game (76.0). They'll look to make Saint Mary's uncomfortable, just like Mark Byington and Vandy did back in November. That's a big reason why the model likes the Aggies to advance as a double-digit seed. See which other 2026 March Madness upsets and matchups to target here.
How to make 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a No. 14 seed, and see which 6-seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that's nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.
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