NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket: Simulation predicts surprising upsets, top-rated sleepers, March Madness picks

When does the March Madness 2026 schedule start, and when are 2026 NCAA Tournament brackets due? The 2026 March Madness bracket begins on Thursday, March 19

There were surprisingly few March Madness upsets last season, which is something to consider heading into the 2026 NCAA Tournament on Thursday. At least one top-four seed has lost in the first round in 15 of the last 17 tournaments, but last year was one of the two years during this stretch when it did not happen. There have never been two consecutive tournaments in which the top four seeds won every first-round game. Which upsets should you look for in your 2026 March Madness bracket picks?

A double-digit seed has advanced to the Sweet 16 in each of the past 17 tournaments, but only one double-digit seed reached that stage in each of the past three years. It is the first time in the modern era that there have been three straight tournaments without multiple double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16, so how many should you include in your 2026 March Madness picks? Before you make your 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the 2026 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Two years ago, SportsLine's computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida. Last year, SportsLine's computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including calling both 9-seeds that advanced in the first round, No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis, and No. 6 BYU advancing to the Sweet 16. The model has beaten over 91 percent of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past seven tournaments.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn's championship run in 2024. It nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 and correctly predicted all four Final Four teams a year ago.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks. You shouldn't even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.

Top 2026 March Madness bracket upset picks

One South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 9 Iowa defeats No. 8 Clemson in the first round. Both of these teams are pretty solid defensively, ranking top 30 in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency and top 30 in points allowed per game. However, Iowa does appear to have the edge offensively, due in large part to Drake transfer Bennett Stirtz. After earning Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year honors last season, Stirtz followed head coach Ben McCollum to Iowa and has continued to score at an impressive rate. He shot 49.2% from the floor and 37.6% from the 3-point line while scoring 20.0 points per game and Iowa ranked 31st in adjusted offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Clemson ranked 71st and didn't have anybody on its roster average more than 11.9 points per game.

Another South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 10 Texas A&M knocks off No. 7 Saint Mary's. The Gaels are in the Big Dance for the fifth year in a row, but they have not reached the second weekend since 2010. They went 1-4 against Quad 1 opponents this season, going 26-1 in their other 27 games.

Texas A&M is in the NCAA Tournament for the fourth year in a row, and it ranks inside the top 15 in Division 1 in points per game, 3-pointers made per game and assists per game. The Aggies also rank second in the country in bench points per game, allowing them to stay fresh throughout this contest. Sixth-year senior Rashaun Agee leads the team with 14.7 points and 6.2 rebounds per game, racking up 13 double-doubles this season. See which other 2026 March Madness upsets and matchups to target here.

How to make 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a No. 14 seed, and see which 6-seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that's nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.