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NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket: Simulation predicts surprising upsets, sleepers, and March Madness picks

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NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket: Simulation predicts surprising upsets, sleepers, and March Madness picks
NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket: Simulation predicts surprising upsets, sleepers, and March Madness picks By Mar 19, 2026 at 10:50 am ET • 3 min read Imagn Images

One of the most popular 2026 March Madness upset picks will be a 12-seed defeating a 5-seed. At least one 12 seed has won a game in five of the last six NCAA Tournament brackets. Could No. 12 Akron, playing in the Midwest Region, keep that trend going in the March Madness bracket 2026 in its matchup against No. 5 Texas Tech?

Akron is 29-5 overall and the MAC Tournament champions, with its only conference loss coming in a 76-73 final on the road to Miami (OH), which was undefeated before its conference tournament defeat. The Zips are 19-1 over their last 20 games, making them one of the potential 2026 March Madness Cinderella teams for March Madness bracket picks. Before you make your 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the 2026 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Two years ago, SportsLine's computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida. Last year, SportsLine's computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including calling both 9-seeds that advanced in the first round, No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis, and No. 6 BYU advancing to the Sweet 16. The model has beaten over 91 percent of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past seven tournaments.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn's championship run in 2024. It nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 and correctly predicted all four Final Four teams a year ago.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks. You shouldn't even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.

Top 2026 March Madness bracket upset picks

One South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 11 VCU upsets six-time national champion and No. 6-seeded North Carolina. VCU only made the NCAA Tournament by securing an automatic bid via winning the Atlantic 10 Tournament. But that means the Rams are peaking at the right time. VCU has won six straight and 16 of its last 17 games.

Meanwhile, North Carolina ended the year with back-to-back losses, including falling to unranked Clemson in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals, and the Tar Heels are 4-3 over their last seven games. North Carolina leading scorer Caleb Wilson is out for the year, which plays a key role in the model backing VCU in this 11 over 6 upset.

Another South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 10 Texas A&M knocks off No. 7 Saint Mary's. The Gaels are in the Big Dance for the fifth year in a row, but they have not reached the second weekend since 2010. They went 1-4 against Quad 1 opponents this season, going 26-1 in their other 27 games.

Texas A&M is in the NCAA Tournament for the fourth year in a row, and it ranks inside the top 15 in Division 1 in points per game, 3-pointers made per game and assists per game. The Aggies also rank second in the country in bench points per game, allowing them to stay fresh throughout this contest. Sixth-year senior Rashaun Agee leads the team with 14.7 points and 6.2 rebounds per game, racking up 13 double-doubles this season. See which other 2026 March Madness upsets and matchups to target here.

How to make 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a No. 14 seed, and see which 6-seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that's nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.

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Originally reported by CBS Sports