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NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket: Simulation predicts surprising upsets, optimal sleepers, March Madness picks

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NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket: Simulation predicts surprising upsets, optimal sleepers, March Madness picks
NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket: Simulation predicts surprising upsets, optimal sleepers, March Madness picks By Mar 18, 2026 at 2:59 pm ET • 3 min read byu.jpg Imagn Images

The 87th NCAA Tournament has arrived, with the first national champion crowned back in 1939. There have been 37 schools that have won a national title, including 15 capturing multiple championships entering the 2026 March Madness bracket. Six programs have claimed 17 of the last 21 titles, and they are blue bloods of the sport. UConn (5 titles), UNC (3), Florida (3), Duke (2), Kansas (2) and Villanova (2) have had dynastic runs over this span and will be favored by many in 2026 NCAA Tournament picks.

Villanova is the lowest seed among those teams at No. 8 in the West Region, and the Wildcats are 0-5 versus ranked teams this season. This is Nova's first NCAA bracket appearance since Jay Wright's retirement, so it will be intriguing to see if the program prestige he established can carry over. Before you make your 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the 2026 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Two years ago, SportsLine's computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida. Last year, SportsLine's computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including calling both 9-seeds that advanced in the first round, No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis, and No. 6 BYU advancing to the Sweet 16. The model has beaten over 91 percent of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past seven tournaments.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn's championship run in 2024. It nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 and correctly predicted all four Final Four teams a year ago.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks. You shouldn't even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.

Top 2026 March Madness bracket upset picks

One South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 11 VCU upsets six-time national champion and No. 6-seeded North Carolina. The Tar Heels lost star freshman Caleb Wilson to a season-ending hand injury at the end of the regular season, and they lost to Clemson in their first game of the ACC Tournament. They went just 5-3 without Wilson this season, as his 19.8 points per game were the most by a freshman in school history.

VCU has lost only one game in the last two months and is averaging its most points per game (81.6) in the last 50 years. The Rams are a deep team, ranked seventh in Division I in bench points per game (34.0) this season. Head coach Phil Martelli Jr. led the team to 27 wins in his first season, tied for the second-most ever behind Anthony Grant. 

Another South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 5 Vanderbilt gets past No. 4 Nebraska to advance to the Sweet 16. The Cornhuskers had a magical 20-0 start to the year but have gone just 6-6 since then. They are a high-volume 3P shooting team, ranking 14th in the country in attempts per game but aren't a high-efficiency unit, ranking just 106th in 3P percentage. With no rotation players taller than 6-foot-9, Nebraska also struggles protecting the paint, ranking 306th in the country in blocks. That makes this potential second-round matchup versus Vanderbilt highly undesirable for NU as Vandy has the second-best FG% in the paint among the 365 Division I teams. The Commodores also convert from the charity stripe, ranking fourth in the country in FT%. Vanderbilt just knocked off 1-seed Florida by 17 points in the SEC Tournament as the model projects it to reach the Sweet 16 for the first time in 19 years. See which other 2026 March Madness upsets and matchups to target here.

How to make 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a No. 14 seed, and see which 6-seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that's nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.

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Originally reported by CBS Sports