NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket picks, upsets, Cinderella teams: Unbiased model simulates March Madness 10K times

SportsLine's college basketball model has called 25 first-round NCAA Tournament upsets by double-digit seeds

While March Madness is known for Cinderella teams and shocking upsets, 19 of the last 22 NCAA Tournament champions ranked in the top six in KenPom's ratings entering the Big Dance. All four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four last season, and the top four teams this year all fit the KenPom criteria. Duke is the No. 1 overall seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket after winning the ACC regular season and tournament titles. The Blue Devils are led by Cameron Boozer, who is widely considered the best player in college basketball.

However, the No. 1 overall seed has won only four of the last 21 titles, with eight of those teams losing in the Sweet 16 or earlier. Should you fade the Blue Devils with your 2026 March Madness bracket picks? Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.

It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.

Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket being revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.

2026 March Madness bracket games to watch

One of the 2026 March Madness matchups to keep an eye on: No. 8 seed Villanova vs. No. 9 seed Utah State in the West Region. Villanova has won eight straight games in the Round of 64, the third-longest active streak in college basketball. The Wildcats are making their first appearance in the Big Dance since losing in the 2022 Final Four in their final season under head coach Jay Wright. Utah State has gone 20 straight NCAA Tournament appearances without multiple wins, the longest streak by any school ever.

Also in the West Region, Miami vs. Missouri figures to be a pivotal 7 vs. 10 matchup. All NCAA Tournament games are played at neutral sites, however, Missouri will likely have a significant crowd advantage in this contest at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri. The arena is roughly 10 miles from the Missouri campus, giving the No. 10 seed an advantage over the No. 7 seed in that respect. Missouri has lost three straight games, but the Tigers opened SEC play with wins over Florida and Kentucky, showing the ability to compete with the best in the nation. Miami lost to Florida by 14 points this season, but the Hurricanes defeated No. 11 North Carolina this year. The last time Miami was in the NCAA Tournament, it reached the Final Four in 2023.

The third matchup to watch in the West Region features No. 4 seed Arkansas vs. No. 13 seed Hawaii. Arkansas is coming off its first SEC Tournament title since 2000, as head coach John Calipari extended his record for most SEC Tournament titles to seven. The Razorbacks are led by star freshmen Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas, who became the first SEC freshman duo since 2016-17 to average over 15 points per game each. They are facing a Hawaii team that is in the Big Dance for the sixth time in school history and the first time since 2016, when it took down No. 4 seed California in the first round.  You can see how far all these teams go over at SportsLine.

How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions

How far will those major programs go? And which Cinderella teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it is calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament bracket 2026? And which 2026 March Madness underdogs will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams you can back with confidence, all from the model that's nailed 25 upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception and beat over 91% of players in four of the last seven tournaments.